863
FXUS64 KOUN 181943
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A line of thunderstorms are currently developing along a cold
front, which extends from Hill City to Garden City (Kansas). A
secondary area of thunderstorms could develop along a dryline in
the western panhandles within the next several hours. Given the
mixed signal among models, the confidence in either complex of
storms reaching northwest/western Oklahoma this evening is low to
medium (30-50%). Storms that develop in the panhandles will likely
weaken and/or dissipate before reaching our western row of
counties late this evening, and storms to the north could remain
north until tomorrow morning. However, there is the possibility of
strong to marginally severe wind gusts affecting northwest
Oklahoma if these outflow boundaries from either complex reach our
area.

Whether the storms in Kansas actually make it into Oklahoma tonight
remains highly uncertain and dependent on frontal location/speed.
Guidance suggests a medium-high chance of this activity arriving
well after midnight and closer to dawn. Models are trending slower
with the front and associated precipitation, and the best chances
enter northwest Oklahoma after dawn tomorrow with a few rounds
possible through mid-day. Given predicted PWAT values of 1.6-1.8
inches, which is relatively high for climatology (between the 90th
percentile and daily max values), storms could be efficient
rain-producers and could pose a risk of flash flooding.

Cloud-cover and rain chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through
at least early afternoon, which should keep high temperatures in
the low to mid-80`s. Fewer clouds should lead to better diabatic
heating with temperatures in the upper 80`s to low 90`s. Expect
cloud-cover to begin increasing tomorrow afternoon and overnight
from the southeast as the outer bands of Potential Tropical
Cyclone One begins to influence our area.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

The tropical disturbance is expected to strengthen to a Tropical Storm
prior to making landfall along the gulf coast of Mexico on Wednesday
night. Although the center of this storm will remain well south of
our area, there is a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storm development
within the outer bands late Wednesday night into Thursday morning
over western north Texas with these chances spreading into west-
central Oklahoma for the first half of Thursday.

The main message then turns to heat risk as temperatures then
trending upward, beginning on Friday and lasting over the weekend
and into early next week. High temperatures are forecast to rise
above 100 degrees beginning Saturday for parts of the area and
lasting through Monday. A heat advisory will likely be needed for
parts of north-central Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Primarily VFR cigs with cu/stratcu and strong southerly winds most
terminals through this afternoon. Cigs are expected to rise slowly
through the afternoon and become scattered. TSRA will likely commence
near cold front across western Kansas into the OK/TX Panhandles
toward evening and spread into far northwest Oklahoma. TSRA will
be confined to KWWR this evening through tomorrow morning with
PROB30 at KPNC around daybreak. Elevated SHRA west of SPS/LAW
early this afternoon should continue to dissipate or hold steady
as it drifts slowly eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  72  89  71  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobart OK         71  89  69  88 /  20  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  71  89  72  89 /   0  10  10  20
Gage OK           68  86  66  88 /  40  50  20  20
Ponca City OK     72  90  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         71  86  72  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>007-009>012-
     014>018-021>024-034-035.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...11