281
FXUS63 KDDC 141001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of thunderstorm chances (20-30%) tonight.

- Warming trend continues into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northeast
through the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick back up tonight as the
SREF indicates another series of H5 vort maxima ejecting off an
amplifying ridge axis across the northern Colorado Rockies into the
high plains of northeast Colorado/western Nebraska this evening.
Near the surface, deep level moisture continues to pool ahead of the
anchored lee side trough axis in eastern Colorado with surface
dewpoints well up into mid/upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F), providing
more than ample instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 to
4000 J/kg. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated
with peak daytime heating, thunderstorms are once again forecast to
develop in eastern/northeast Colorado late this afternoon/early evening,
then spread east-southeast into northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska
overnight, and potentially into central Kansas early Sunday morning.
However, the magnitude of any thunderstorms looks to be more limited
as suggested by the HREF, only showing a 10-20% probability of 6-hr
QPF exceeding even 0.1 of an inch across portions of west central
and central Kansas. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with the
upper level ridge axis shifting only slightly easterward. Limited
thunderstorm chances (mainly in coverage) exist Monday as the upper
level ridge shifts farther east into the Central Plains.

The ongoing warming trend continues today as prevailing southeasterlies
reinforce a warming airmass across the region, pushing H85 temperatures
up around 25C in central Kansas to near 30C in extreme southwest Kansas.
With the HREF showing a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping
85F in central/south central Kansas to a better than an 80-90% probablity
of temperatures exceeding 90F in extreme southwest Kansas, expect
afternoon highs generally up into the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas
to widespread 90s(F) farther west/southwest. A little more widespread
lower/mid 90s(F) are likely Sunday and Monday as the upper level ridge
moves out of the Rockies into the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the
vicinity of all TAF sites before ending west to east by mid-morning.
Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are forecast to prevail in
vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light south-southeast
winds are expected to persist through much of the period as a lee
side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson