569
FXUS63 KDDC 111042
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
542 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer hanging on; gradual warm up beginning today, through
  the weekend, and to start next week where triple-digits look
  to make a return

- Small storm chances today near I-70 this evening; greater
  potential Saturday and next week

- Stretch of cooler weather next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Summer continues to want to hold on across the region as
low-level southerly flow returns today, throughout this
weekend, and to start next week. Widespread low to mid 90s are
expected today with mid to upper 90s by Saturday. A cold front`s
placement will determine who sees upper 80s or mid to upper 90s
on Saturday, with northern zones having the best chance to be a
touch cooler. However, by Sunday and Monday, everyone is back to
hot temperatures. Mid to upper 90s are expected, with 100s
likely making their presence felt again closer to the KS/OK
border area. NBM probabilities of MaxTs >100 is 40-70% in areas
south of Route 50 to the Oklahoma border. Beyond Monday, a cold
front sweeps through, knocking temperatures down across the
region. Current guidance suggests this stretch will be more
prolonged through next week.

Precipitation chances are minimal for parts of the CWA today,
with only slight chance in far northern and eastern counties
this evening and overnight. CAMs do attempt thunderstorm
development across northern Kansas given a fleeting influence
from a shortwave trough. Cannot entirely rule out some activity
nearing I-70 into this evening given this, but overall chances
are low as well as any severe weather. Sunday will feature a
greater chance at thunderstorms along a weak cold front that
will position itself west to east across Kansas. Moisture along
the boundary, fostering MUCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, would
allow at least some isolated thunderstorm potential. PWATs
around 1.3" and steep low-level lapse rates would promote wet
microburst potential. Locally heavy rainfall would also be a
potential given the very moist column. Bulk shear 30-40 knots
would suggest some at least semi-organization of multi-cell
clusters, and perhaps a transient supercell structure, so
isolated instances of hail would also be possible. The favored
area for any isolated severe thunderstorm chances would be east
of Route 283, where POPs are 20-50% in the latest forecast.
Additional waves sweeping in the from the west and boundary
placement will maintain elevated POPs in the forecast through
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

IR imagery indicates developing pockets of low level stratus
across portions of southwest Kansas early this morning. The
latest HRRR indicates further development of the stratus through
daybreak, resulting in brief periods of IFR cigs in vicinity of
KDDC and possibly KGCK before lifting/scattering out generally
after 13-15Z. Based on latest observations, patchy fog resulting
in MVFR vsbys is also expected to continue in vicinity of both
KDDC and KGCK through sunrise. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions
are expected to take hold by late morning and prevail in vicinity
of all TAF sites through late evening. Light southerly winds
through mid-morning are expected to increase 10 to 20kt with
gusts up to 25kt generally after 15-17Z as lee side troughing
strengthens in eastern Colorado, then subside this evening as
the trough axis evolves into a surface low while beginning to
sink southward into northeast New Mexico.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bennett
AVIATION...JJohnson