Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121959

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
159 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Weak shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft will
slide across the area tonight. Precipitation chances will be
limited to the southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas area and
anticipate local area will stay dry.

The amplified upper ridge currently centered over the Rockies will
slowly move east and weaken Tuesday and Wednesday. No
precipitation is expected due to lack of upper forcing under the
ridge. Temperatures will be near mornal on Tuesday, then warm to
much above normal on Wednesday under the ridge axis. Might see
some elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon due to
low humidity, but wind speeds currently forecast to stay below
critical criteria.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

There will be a more active pattern at the end of the work week,
with two opportunities for precipitation. A warming trend ends on
Friday, and cooler temperatures follow through the weekend.

On Thursday, dry weather starts off the day with upper ridging over
the High Plains. This changes when a disturbance breaks down the
western side of the ridge and a cold front approaches the region at
the surface. Precipitation looks to be generated by this system
Thursday evening into Friday, mainly north of Interstate 70.
Predominantly rain is expected, but any amounts will be light.
Dry weather returns by Friday night when the first disturbance
passes east of the area and weak ridging redevelops behind.

Meanwhile, an upper trough strengthens over the west coast and
progresses east through Monday. There are still plenty of model
differences regarding this second system, with some guidance
depicting it as a closed low and others as an open wave. However, it
does look to bring the region a decent shot at precipitation
Saturday afternoon through Monday (with the best chances Sunday
night). The area will mostly see rain, transitioning to light snow
Sunday night. Will continue to monitor.

Regarding fire weather: Low relative humidity values return each day
during this period, especially south of Interstate 70, but winds are
not impressive. Day to keep an eye on is Friday when locations
south of Highway 40 could see a bump up in wind speeds.

Temperatures peak in the 70s on Thursday before a cold front cools
highs into the 60s for Friday through Sunday. Another shot of cold
air filters in on Monday, dropping temperatures into the 50s. Low
temperatures are mainly in the 30s throughout the period, with a few
locations in the upper 20s Sunday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
high over eastern Kansas will result in light southerly surface
winds. High clouds will gradually increase through the period from
the west.




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