Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1237 PM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...temperatures are
currently ranging from the upper 40s thru the mid 50s under a
meandering psunny/msunny sky. Winds are mainly light and variable

For the rest of the afternoon...variable sky cover is expected to
remain over the area w/ the region still under the influence of the
extreme western edge of the circulation of the exiting storm
system...even as surface high pressure builds over the area.

Going into tonight...expecting low level moisture over the region to
keep sky conditions at least partly cloudy. Surface ridge will
continue to push slow eastward going into Monday. By then decreasing
clouds over the region as surface ridge continues trek eastward...
but also aided by building mid level ridge cresting over the region
during the daytime hrs Monday...before shifting ESE going towards

The result of this will have dry conditions area-wide tonight into
Monday. For temps...the region will have overnight lows ranging in
the 30s...warmest east but all areas highly dependent on expected
cloud cover and will have to be monitored. Monday high temps with
high pressure in force will allow for upper 60s to around 70F.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

At the start of the extended period the models are showing an upper
level ridge located west of the Rockies while at the same time an
upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes Region into the
High Plains.  This ridge looks to make its way east and influence
the local area with mostly dry conditions by the end of the week and
into the weekend.

However, before that happens, another upper level trough, along with
an associated surface front, will move down the eastern side of this
ridge and pass over the local area on Thursday. This will produce a
chance of rain showers mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

The next possibility for precipitation looks to be Saturday
afternoon and evening, as an upper level shortwave trough moves
off the Front Range and into the Central High Plains.

With the an upper ridge moving over the region the afternoon highs
will start out reaching the lower to middle 60s and then reach into
the lower to middle 70s by Saturday.  The Overnight lows will
maintain in the lower to upper 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Mainly VFR conditions expected for both taf sites w/ scattered
cloud cover. A few hours this afternoon (18z-21z) of MVFR
ceilings near BKN015-025 as some morning low clouds linger.

For winds...KGLD will see E around 5-10kts thru 01z
Monday...becoming ESE around 5kts. By 03z Monday S around 10kts.
KMCK will see light/variable conditions thru 01z Monday...then
ESE 5-10kts.




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