769
FXUS63 KIND 110641
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
241 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today, with isolated convection possible mainly north

- Times of numerous showers / scattered storms this weekend

- Continued humid and very warm/hot into next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Early This Morning...

A surface boundary looks to have pushed north of central Indiana
early this morning, with light southwest winds noted along with
higher dewpoints most areas. Decaying convection was moving east
from northern Illinois into northern Indiana, with additional
convection firing in northwest Illinois.

An upper impulse in the upper flow was helping generate the
convection, and this will move east/northeast into lower Michigan.
This will keep most of the forcing out of central Indiana. However,
cannot rule out some of the dying convection from sneaking into
northern portions of the area early this morning. Will keep some low
PoPs there.

Today...

The upper flow will become northwest to southeast across the area
today, and upper heights will rise. Mid level temperatures will also
rise accordingly. This will help keep convection at bay for much of
the forecast area today.

However, potential old outflow boundaries from overnight/early
morning convection could be across far northern portions of central
Indiana. These could allow for some isolated convection to still
fire there today. Will keep some slight chance PoPs north today.

Even though odds of convection will be below mentioning elsewhere
for reasons stated above, odds are not zero, and an isolated shower
or storm could still pop up.

Cirrus from early morning convection will thin out today, and
diurnal cumulus will pop up. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures will peak from around 90 to the lower 90s most areas.
With the higher dewpoints in place, heat indices will be in the
middle and upper 90s.

Tonight...

By the start of the tonight period, odds of isolated convection will
be too low to mention. Much of the night will be quiet, but late in
the period an upper trough and surface boundary will approach from
the west.

These may be enough to allow a few showers or storms to reach the
far northwest portion of the forecast area very late tonight. Will
have some slight chance PoPs for that.

Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 70s with muggy
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Saturday through Sunday night...

The weekend will feature a rather weak H500 wave and its
corresponding cool front slowly crossing the Midwest. This will
present two opportunities for numerous showers, if not conditional
convective threats...with latest guidance continuing to place most
of central Indiana within the very warm and oppressive air mass.  A
few differences between the two set-ups will include... Satuday`s
very low shear, and any decent mid-level lapse rates delayed until
evening hours, albeit following impressive afternoon
instability...and Sunday`s at times adequate shear, lackluster lapse
rates, and possibly up to 3000 J/kg CAPE if mid-level ceilings can
scatter out late in the day.  Therefore, suspect numerous showers
Saturday with scattered afternoon downpours, and at least a few
strong t-storms during mainly evening hours.  Less confidence
Sunday, yet inordinate precipitable water values over 2.00 inches
for most counties and overall slow flow aloft will promote heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, especially south of I-70...with a
few marginally strong/severe cells possible.

Monday through Thursday...

Any northerly flow behind the weekend wave should be brief during
the early week, with perhaps slightly lower temps/dwpts...and mainly
dry conditions through Monday and perhaps into Tuesday.  Remainder
of the long term should be more rounds of the recent humid, summery
pattern...characterized by upper 80s to around 90F afternoons and
diurnally-driven convection.  Forecast certainty decreases for the
late workweek when noticeably cooler air not too far to our
northwest will try to plunge into the Midwest, although model
uncertainty/inconsistencies remains in timing and southern
progression of any Canadian high pressure into the late week.  At
the very least, more active weather may be in store around the
Thursday timeframe when the corresponding, possibly quasi-stationary
front may drag across the region...focusing increased shower/t-storm
chances.

Heat index values during the long term should be highest Saturday
with widespread upper 90s...and again around next Wednesday`s
timeframe when at least one day could bring mainly upper 90s/low
100s values across the CWA.  Indianapolis` normal max/min will
maintain the year`s peak values through July 22...85/67.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability of convection early at KLAF
- S-SW wind gusts up to 20kt Friday afternoon.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms to the northwest of central Indiana should weaken or
move away from the TAF sites early in the period, but there is a low
chance that some could make it to KLAF. Odds are low enough though
that will not mention in the TAF.

Cannot rule out brief fog at times at KBMG overnight, but again,
odds are too low to mention at this time.

Otherwise, diurnal cumulus will return late Friday morning into the
afternoon. Some wind gusts near 20kt will occur as well Friday
afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50