Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

One vort lobe associated with a larger upper level storm system
has rotated across western Kansas, bringing rainfall and a few
embedded thunderstorms to the area. The next vort lobe was
approaching the southern high plains early this morning and will
eject northeastward into the southern plains today. Most of the
rainfall with this system will be to the south and east, but south
central Kansas including Medicine Lodge will receive some rain
with this system through early this evening. Highs today will be
held down by cloud cover and should stay at or below 50 degrees.
Low level cloud cover will remain across western Kansas tonight so
that lows should stay in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. If
some clearing does occur toward morning across western Kansas
then temperatures could fall into the mid 30s in places such as
Scott City and Dighton.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

The next shortwave trough will come into the Pacific Northwest by
early Sunday, approach the high plains by late Monday and then
Move across western Kansas Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some shower
activity is possible with this system as it passes but it does
not look like a heavy rain event. Another upper level storm system
is expected to move southeastward out of Canada into the plains
by Thursday. Some shower activity is also possible with this
system on Tuesday; but no big precipitation event is expected.
Modest temperature variations can be expected since a cold front
will be associated with each of these systems; but no arctic air
will be involved. A warm up can be expected Sunday and Monday with
highs reaching in the 60s to near 70 degrees by Monday; but then
the next cold front will retard this recovery and knock highs back
a few degrees on Tuesday. Another warm up can be expected
Wednesday before the next cold front arrives Thursday. It is
unclear how strong this front will be and whether it will have a
significant impact on high temperatures. The upper level pattern
by next weekend is uncertain as the various models show
significant disagreement.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

An upper level disturbance passing around the periphery of a
larger upper level storm system will pass to the south of western
Kansas today. Low level northeasterly upslope flow will turn more
northerly today, but this will not be enough to help clear out
the IFR/MFVR cloud deck. But the lessening upslope component may
be allow CIGS to rise to MVFR at KDDC and especially KGCK but
this is a low confidence forecast. With the loss of heating
tonight, CIGS may lower again before morning and before drier air
works in.


DDC  48  38  60  38 /  80  30   0   0
GCK  48  37  60  36 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  51  37  63  39 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  52  37  62  38 /  40  20   0   0
HYS  48  37  59  40 /  80  30   0   0
P28  51  41  63  43 /  80  40  10  10




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