Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 041710
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1210 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.AVIATION...
All sites VFR as skies are clearing from west to east today. There
are a few lingering showers in the San Antonio area and are
represented in the TAFs as VCSH and should only be in the area for
the next couple of hours. Northerly winds behind the front that
passed this morning. Terminals should hold gusts up to 25mph through
the afternoon. Northerly winds then becoming northeasterly this
evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
An upper level trough is moving into West Texas and bringing a cold
front through South Central Texas. The cold front has entered our
northern area where winds have shifted to the north. Farther south
winds are still from the east and warm, moist air remains in place.
Temperatures and dewpoints are in the 70s south of about I-35. So
far as the front moves into this muggy air, it has not produced any
convection. This may change as the upper trough axis moves across
the region later today. Rain chances will increase across the area
east of I-35 between about sunrise and noon. Any storms should
remain ordinary with a lack of instability and marginal wind shear.
This afternoon rain chances will come to an end and skies will
generally clear from west to east. Cooler air will move in with high
temperatures this afternoon 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Winds behind the front will be breezy from the north at 10 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 35 mph. Winds will decrease as the pressure
gradient relaxes this evening. Tonight will be mainly clear with
light winds. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be near 10
degrees cooler than today. Wednesday will be pleasant with mostly
sunny skies and warm temperatures just a couple of degrees warmer
than today.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Much of the long-term forecast is expected to be fairly quiet.
Wednesday night will begin the period with light northeast/east winds
with lows Thursday morning reaching the 50s to lower 60s across the
area. Mostly clear skies will prevail through Friday as dry air
remains in place. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in the middle
80s to near 90 with with lows Friday in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Warm southerly flow will make its return to the area for the weekend.
This should allow for a fairly quick return of moisture and a warm-up
for Mother`s Day weekend. Highs Saturday will be in the upper 80s to
middle 90s with temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer on Sunday.
Some of the global guidance continues to show light amounts of QPF
Saturday with the initial return of low-level moisture. This would
likely be light rain or drizzle underneath a capping inversion. Will
continue to keep the forecast dry for now as the overall threat for
any appreciable rainfall or impacts remain fairly low. The GFS is
progging the next front to arrive late Monday afternoon with its 00z
run showing a fair amount of QPF for this system. There is some
support with the 00z ECMWF with this solution while the 00z Canadian
is about 24 hours faster. Will show silent 10 PoPs on Monday for now
but PoPs in the Sunday-Monday timeframe will likely be introduced
with later forecasts if these trends continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  56  80  57  85 /  40   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  56  80  55  85 /  30   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  57  82  57  87 /  30   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            77  53  78  55  83 /  -    0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  62  87  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  54  79  55  84 /  10   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  57  85  57  89 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  56  81  55  86 /  30   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  58  81  59  85 /  40   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  59  82  58  87 /  20   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           85  60  83  59  88 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YBVP
Long-Term...Brady
Decision Support...Runyen


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