Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 042351
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
651 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday evening.
There is a slight potential of fog early in the morning if winds go
lighter than forecast over the rain soaked soils near the I-35 sites.
Forecast soundings show a hint of a stratus layer at KDRT in the
morning. However, will leave mention out of TAFs as chances are low
concerning both scenarios. N flow becomes NE to E at the I-35 sites
and E to SE at KDRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

The current surface analysis shows the cold front that passed
through the area this morning, just south of the CWA. Isolated,
residual showers along an area of convergence through the I-35
corridor, are all that remain on the radar from the earlier severe
storms this morning. The current forecast will maintain these
showers through the afternoon, and some movement eastward through
the afternoon can be expected as well. Tonight, the cooler drier air
will be better felt with overnight lows in the low 50s in the Hill
Country, and low 60s elsewhere. The area will maintain north to
northeasterly winds throughout the short term. Tomorrow, the area is
dominated by surface ridging and will remain dry and pleasant with
highs in the 70s and 80s. For the short-term forecast, I can say
with confidence, no more hail!

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

The workweek comes to a close with 500 mb ridging building over the
state from the west while surface high pressure positioned to the
north across the central US gradually slides eastward with time. As
the surface high slides eastward, the low-level flow will turn and
also increase out of the southeast on Friday. Overall, this pattern
should lead to a fair and quieter end to the week with seasonable
temperatures near or slightly above the climatological average. As
the low-level moisture and humidity increases, could see the chance
of a few stray streamer showers from Friday night into Saturday
morning, favoring the far eastern counties.

The mentioned mid-level ridge pattern flattens to zonal flow during
the weekend before becoming more of a west-southwesterly flow early
next week with possible weak embedded pieces of energy within the
flow ahead of a trough that will advance eastward out of the Four
Corners region. Conditions look to remain dry through the weekend
but we`ll have to monitor any diurnally driven convection to the
west across Mexico along the dryline/surface trough. Rain chances
become better into early next week as a frontal boundary pushes
southward and eventually stalling somewhere across the central
portions of the state. Given timing and location differences with
this front, will keep pops in the 20 to 30 percent range. Area
temperatures are expected to be warmest this weekend, especially
Sunday, before trending closer to near climatology.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  80  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  80  55  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  82  57  87  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            53  78  55  83  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  87  62  91  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  79  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             57  85  57  89  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  81  55  86  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   58  81  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           60  83  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...KCW


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