Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 101108
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
608 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

.AVIATION...
SAT/SSF/AUS remain MVFR this morning with light east to southeasterly
winds. DRT is VFR though current satellite imagery shows low level
clouds in the area that could spread into terminal. This afternoon,
chances for thunderstorms at DRT as the sfc boundary is still draped
over the CWA and will be the source of lift later. Storms may
produce very large hail. For the I-35 sites, less confidence on where
showers and storms may develop tonight into tomorrow but coverage
more widespread and chances last through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
With the presence of a stalled surface boundary, there will be a
wide range of temperatures across our area. Movement of the line
could mean more than a few degrees depending on side you are on. In
our northern counties, highs only in the mid to upper 70s while the
southern counties and Rio Grande Plains reach over 100 degrees.
While this boundary meanders across South Central Texas, a mid-level
shortwave approaches from the west. Daytime heating near the Rio
Grande should provide enough destabilization while the surface
boundary provides the convergence. Initial development of strong to
severe storms will likely be west of the US/Mexico border and
movement south and east is expected. A generous amount of CAPE in
this region with values of over 4000 J/kg. Lapse rates across the
area are steep enough to support very large hail in the right storm.
Convection could be ongoing into the overnight hours with the severe
potential lessening after sunset. SPC has the area highlighted in a
Slight risk for the western half of the area up to San Antonio, then
marginal eastward.

With features still unsettled, more showers and thunderstorms await
on Tuesday. With the lingering front now sagging further south
providing the lift for moisture continuing to flow in and over the
front, showers and thunderstorms will spread throughout the day. SPC
has the entire area highlighted for Marginal risk Tuesday with hail
and wind being the main threat, especially in areas that may get
some breaks in the clouds to allow for more heating.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
A weak mid level impulse riding over the frontal surface provide
upward forcing for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening. Although PWs decrease to 1.1 to 1.5 inches, these
are still above normal. The threat of locally heavy rains lingers.
Some flooding is still possible, especially in areas that received
heavy rains today through Tuesday. Some shear and instability remains
in the mid levels. Cannot rule out isolated strong storms with hail.
Cold advection underneath cloudy and rainy skies makes for well
below normal temperatures and have continued the trend of lowering
high temperatures for Wednesday.

As the mid level impulse moves away, forcing wanes and moisture
continues to decrease Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms gradually end from north to south. Fair weather is
expected on Friday. Mid level impulses move over our area bringing
chances of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday into Sunday. The
ECMWF remains the most aggressive on rainfall with the GFS and CMC
much less. As a result, have gone with the blended POPs for now.
A slow warming trend back to near normal is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  65  77  63  69 /  30  50  80  70  50
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  65  79  63  70 /  20  50  80  70  50
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  67  83  64  73 /  20  50  70  70  50
Burnet Muni Airport            75  62  74  59  66 /  30  50  90  70  50
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  71  87  68  76 /  40  50  70  50  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  64  76  61  68 /  30  50  90  70  50
Hondo Muni Airport             91  68  84  65  75 /  20  40  80  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        83  66  81  63  71 /  20  50  70  70  50
La Grange - Fayette Regional   86  69  82  67  74 /  30  40  70  70  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       86  67  82  66  72 /  20  40  80  70  50
Stinson Muni Airport           89  69  84  67  75 /  20  50  70  70  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YBVP
Long-Term...04


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