Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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598
FXUS64 KEWX 182114
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
414 PM CDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Light to moderate showers will continue to affect portions of south
central Texas through Friday night. There is the potential for
moderate to heavy rain overnight with a second and better signal for
heavy shower activity late Friday morning into the afternoon period.

The Flash Flood Watch has been extended in time through Friday
Evening as one to two inches are expected with isolated 5 inches
possible, mainly across the northern Hill Country including Burnet
and Llano Counties within the next 24 hours.

The reasoning of the rainfall totals through Friday night are as
follow: 1) maximum precipitable daily values of 1.9 to 2.4 inches, 2)
coastal low level pressure over Brownsville, increased low level
jet tonight into Friday, upper level short-wave pulses moving across
the region and 5) convergence zone setting up along the I-35
corridor on Friday.

All these features are anticipated to interact with each other in
one way or another, which will result in moderate to localized heavy
showers within the next 24 hours, especially late Friday morning
into the afternoon period. The majority of HiRes and medium models
are in good agreement with this solution. There are confidence is
high with the new rainfall amounts and possibility of flash flooding.

Once again, with saturated soils in place and expected rainfall
amounts, new flash flooding are likely to occur and affect areas
where ponding of water remains. If you live near the Colorado, Llano
and Nueces basins, we highly recommend to closely monitor the
weather conditions for the next few days as most of rainfall amounts
will become runoff.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A weak frontal boundary will move into the Rio Grande and Edwards
Plateau areas on Saturday with plenty moisture and instability in
place for the generation of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over those areas. As the boundary moves and dissipates
across the northern part of the area, drier airmass should move
across the eastern part of south central Texas for a break of the
rain. The focus for rain remains over the Rio Grande on Sunday with
rain chances returning to most areas from early to middle of next
week. There is a potential for moderate to heavy showers for this
period as an upper level disturbance moves from the four corners
region into the Southern Plains in addition of increased moisture
arriving from the eastern Pacific and a shallow frontal boundary that
manages to push across the Hill Country.

Temperatures are expected to stay below climate normals through the
entire period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              57  63  59  67  55 /  60  80  50  50  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  64  59  66  57 /  60  70  50  50  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  66  60  68  57 /  60  70  50  50  20
Burnet Muni Airport            54  61  56  65  53 /  80  80  60  50  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           57  68  61  67  59 /  70  40  40  60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  61  56  65  54 /  70  80  60  50  -
Hondo Muni Airport             58  67  62  69  58 /  80  60  40  50  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  66  60  67  57 /  60  70  50  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  70  60  68  57 /  50  60  50  40  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  67  61  68  58 /  70  70  50  50  20
Stinson Muni Airport           60  68  63  69  59 /  70  70  40  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...17
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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