Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231950
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A weak coastal trough off of the upper Texas Coast helped initiate
shower and thunderstorm activity across areas around Houston this
morning. That activity now extends from Victoria to Smithville to
Bryan-College Station and is working its way north and west. The
isolated showers and storms will impact areas along and east of the
I-35 corridor through the afternoon before weakening this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Tonight should be partly cloudy
with more patchy fog expected along the Coastal Plains around
sunrise. Lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, just a few
degrees above seasonal normals. While the coastal trough dissipates
tomorrow, there is plenty of moisture in place for more diurnally
driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms (mainly east of a La
Grange to Gonzales to Karnes City line). Afternoon highs will be in
the low 90s for one more day across the I-35 corridor, but highs
begin to warm across the Rio Grande Plains topping out in the mid to
upper 90s tomorrow. Tomorrow`s forecast high of 96 tomorrow in Del
Rio is 5 degrees above normal for late May.


&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
For Friday and beyond the forecast dries out across South Central
Texas. The upper level ridge steadily builds in over Central Texas
for the Memorial Day weekend as a low pressure across the eastern
Gulf deepens. High pressure over us means decreasing moisture levels
with both subsidence and a mid-level warm layer keeping a lid on any
potential for seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures, as
a result, will be on the rise with 100 degree highs forecast for the
Rio Grande on Saturday, spreading towards San Antonio and the I-35
corridor for Sunday and Memorial Day. Hot and dry is a welcome change
to the record flooding or isolated tornadoes of Memorial Day
weekends past, but it means that those out celebrating on the rivers
and having backyard parties should pay attention to the heat,
drinking plenty of water, etc. After heat index values will reach to
between 101 to 104 each afternoon of the Memorial Day weekend. The
operational ECMWF and GFS disagree on what to do with the low across
the eastern Gulf. While the GFS takes the system into Florida the
ECMWF moves it north towards the Mississippi delta. Neither solution
brings any relief to us in Central Texas, possibly making it worse.
If the tropical/subtropical low does develop (NHC now has the 5-day
chance of formation up to 60%) and moves into the Central Gulf Coast
subsidence and dry air on the western side of the storm could
actually increase the amount of heating and drying across South
Central Texas.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  70  91  71  93 /  20  10  10  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  68  90  69  92 /  20  10  -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  69  91  69  93 /  20  10  -    0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  68  90  69  92 /  10  -   -    0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  73  96  73  98 /   0  10   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        88  68  90  69  92 /  20  10  -   10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             92  69  93  69  94 /  -   10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  69  91  69  93 /  20  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  69  90  70  92 /  40  20  30  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  71  92  71  94 /  20  10  -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  71  93  71  95 /  20  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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