Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 031718
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1218 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all sites. This afternoon, a low chance for an
isolated strong to severe storm may develop along the dry line that
is moving in from the west. KAUS is the more likely impacted
terminal, but since development is highly conditional, have only
mentioned VCTS as confidence on initial development is low. Later,
the associated cold front will bring chances for showers and storms
to the area, again more likely for KAUS but mention of vicinity
storms at san antonio sites was included. Behind the front, north to
northeasterly winds are expected.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Texas is between two upper level troughs this morning with nearly
zonal flow in place. High pressure over the Gulf has the low level
flow from the south over the eastern half of South Central Texas
while the western half is has less well defined winds in a
transition to low pressure farther west. A weak dryline is evident
over West Texas extending from the Panhandle to the Big Bend. This
dryline will move east across our western areas this morning, then
stall just west of or along the I-35 corridor in the afternoon. High
temperatures will warm a few degrees above Sunday`s highs.

Forecast soundings show a capping inversion around the time of peak
heating and the question is whether the combination of strong
heating and the dryline will be able to break it. The model
consensus is that the cap will hold and we have only added some
slight chance POPs over the northeast for this evening. However,
it`s worth noting that forecast soundings show significant CAPE. If
any storms do form they could be strong to severe.

A cold front will move across our area overnight bringing a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible and enough instability
will remain that we cannot rule out a strong storm or two. The best
chances will be over the north and east. Breezy conditions are
expected late Monday night as high pressure builds into our area.
Some showers will linger over the east Tuesday morning. Breezy
northerly winds will move in behind the front bringing cooler air.
Highs Tuesday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...The long-term forecast is
expected to be pretty quiet with dry weather prevailing for much if
not all the period. Tuesday night will start off the long-term with
dry and cool conditions. Light northerly flow behind the cold front
will lead to low temperatures Wednesday morning in the 50s for most
locations with highs in the 80s. Weak southerly flow is expected to
return by Wednesday night, but this should be brief as a weak
boundary moves into the area Thursday. This pattern should keep
dewpoints fairly low, in the 50s, through Friday. This will lead to
lows in this time frame in the 50s to lower 60s with highs warming up
nicely into the 80s for most locations. Moist southerly flow returns
to the region on Saturday and with the increase in moisture lows
Saturday and Sunday will likely be back in the 60s on Saturday and
70s on Sunday. Highs will also be a tad warmer this weekend, in the
upper 80s to middle 90s.

The only sign of any precipitation in the extended is from the
ECMWF/Canadian on Saturday morning with the rush of moisture back
into the area. Both models prog lights amount of QPF, most likely
associated with some light rain or drizzle underneath a capping
inversion. Given the low impacts and persistent dry weather from the
GFS, opted to keep the mention of any precipitation out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  68  79  56  80 /  20  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  68  80  55  80 /  20  30  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  69  83  57  83 /  10  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  63  77  52  78 /  10  20  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  66  88  61  87 /   0  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  66  79  54  79 /  20  30  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  66  85  57  85 /   0  10  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  68  81  55  81 /  20  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  72  81  57  80 /  10  30  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  68  82  59  82 /  10  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  71  84  59  83 /  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YBVP
Long-Term...17
Decision Support...Brady


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