522
FXUS64 KEWX 020514
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1214 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.Key Messages...

- Locally heavy rainfall possible this afternoon/early evening
  across parts of the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau,
  and Rio Grande Plains

- Localized heavy rain possible across the Rio Grande on Wednesday
  and Thursday

- Summerlike pattern with low chances of showers and storms Friday
  into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Abundant tropical moisture continues to arrive across the local area
for the rest of today into this evening. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to affect a good
portion of south central Texas especially areas along and west
Highway 281 (western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio
Grande Plains). Some of these showers and storms could produce heavy
downpours leading into localized flooding and due to that, WPC Day
One ERO highlights the above mentioned areas under a marginal (1 of
4 risk of excessive rainfall) category. In addition, wind gusts of 30
to 40 mph and up to 50 mph are likely such as in the past few
afternoons. The northern Hill Country including the Austin metro and
areas along and east of Highway 183 should stay dry for the most
part with a passing shower or two late afternoon. The dry airmass
over these locations come from a Saharan Air Layer that it is in
place for the next day or so.

By mid to late evening, the shower and thunderstorm activity across
the Rio Grande and nearby locations are expected to diminish with
the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows are forecast to range
from the upper 60s to mid 70s with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

A similar weather pattern of today is forecast for Wednesday with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting mainly the
Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau in the morning with numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some of
these showers and storms could produce heavy rains that could
potentially lead to localized flooding. Areas along and east of
Highway 183 should stay mostly dry with low chances for rain.
Wednesday`s highs are forecast to range from the upper 70s across
the southern Edwards Plateau to the lower to mid 90s along the I-35
corridor and coastal plains areas.

Continued showery with isolated thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
on Wednesday evening, however, the activity should be less with dry
breaks during the late evening and overnight periods. Lows remain in
the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

For Thursday, the local area stays cloudy with highs in the lower
80S to lower 90s. A very moist airmass with pwats values over 2
inches is forecast to move across the local area from the Gulf
waters. This translates into slight to chances for rain across south
central Texas especially over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande. Some of storms could produce heavy rains at times leading to
minor and localized flooding across low lying and poor drainage
areas.

Drier air arrives on Friday into the weekend with a warming trend in
store for Saturday and Sunday. Lingering moisture likely helps for
isolated to scattered showers and a storm or two across the Rio
Grande on Friday afternoon. Otherwise, expect dry weather for the
upcoming holiday weekend. No expecting to issue any heat related
products for the holiday weekend, however, stay hydrated and taking
breaks from the heat as elevated heat index values of 100 to 107 are
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

AUS will remain VFR through the period with only low chances for
showers this afternoon and evening that have not been included in
the TAF at this time. At SAT/SSF, VCSH may continue through this
morning with chances for MVFR ceilings to move over the area close
to sunrise. Models indicate varying solutions for when the best
chances for showers are over the San Antonio area so have continued
PROB30 groups for the afternoon into the evening for -RA. Ceilings
will fall at DRT to MVFR in the next few hours, eventually forecast
to reach IFR around 12Z then back to MVFR in the afternoon. VCSH
will continue in this area overnight with chances for -RA increasing
again this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  93  76 /  20  10  30  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  93  75 /  30  10  30  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  20
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  89  73 /  30  20  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  75  88  75 /  80  60  50  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  75  91  74 /  10  10  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             84  73  86  73 /  70  40  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  74  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  75  93  75 /  20  10  30  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  75  88  75 /  50  30  40  20
Stinson Muni Airport           90  75  90  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...27