884
FXUS64 KEWX 131809
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
109 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dangerous risk with potential of high impact flash flooding is
  forecast for later tonight into Sunday

- Level 3 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall for the rest of tonight
  into Sunday morning for parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and
  Hill Country; a Level 2 of 4 risk along the I-35 corridor and/or
  near the Rio Grande

- Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated 9 to 12 inches
  possible across the Flood Watch area through Sunday evening

- Rapid river rises are anticipated with this dangerous flash
  flooding event

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A dangerous risk with the potential of high impact flash flooding
event is unfolding late tonight into Sunday. Various meteorological
features are forecast to come together to create heavy rain rates (2
to 4 inches/hr) leading to flash flooding and rapid river rises. The
complex of storms is likely to slowly push to the southeast from the
San Angelo area as abundant Gulf moisture feeds into the convergence
zone (line of storms). This is a dangerous situation since we
already had a significant heavy rain event last week with soils near
to saturation or at saturation levels. Runoff will take over quickly
making rivers to rise to dangerous levels in addition to flash
flooding across poor drainage and low-lying areas and low water
crossing. Hires models are in good agreement with tonight`s heavy
rainfall event and therefore, our confidence is medium to high as
far as occurrence and locations. With that said, higher rainfall
amounts are expected through the Flood Watch period with 2 to 4
inches and isolated 9 to 12 inches possible.

There is a good chance that the Flood Watch gets extended and
expanded on Sunday with new data suggesting for heavy rain to
continue Sunday evening into Monday morning as a mesoscale
convective vortex lingers around the Hill Country. For now, we are
concentrating for the late tonight into Sunday morning period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

For the extended forecast period, relatively dry and warm conditions
are expected mid to late week with high temperatures at seasonal
values for most of the work week and reaching the mid to upper 90s
by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A mix of MVFR and at times IFR cigs are forecast to continue across
the I-35 corridor terminals through early afternoon as this line of
TSRAs makes its way across the area. VFR cigs are then expected for
the rest of today into early evening before more storms are expected
to move across the I-35 sites bringing down cigs and vsbys to MVFR
levels once again. Added PROB30s to account for the possibility of
more redevelopment this afternoon with all TSRA activity likely
finished by 00Z. -RA is possible thereafter so added VCSH to account
for this as well. MVFR conditions return overnight with VFR
conditions returning by early Monday afternoon for all sites. South
to southeast flow is forecast to prevail through the period. For KDRT
have a PROB30 for overnight hours for possibility of redevelopment
of TSRAs then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  75  93 /  30  40  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            71  88  72  90 /  40  40  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  94  77  95 /  30  30  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  74  92 /  40  40  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  91  75  92 /  40  40  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  93  74  93 /  30  40  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  75  92 /  20  40   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  76  93 /  30  40  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  76  96 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...17
Aviation...CJM