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000
FXUS64 KEWX 192301
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
601 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Pockets of light rain or drizzle continue to lift north from SAT and
continue over KAUS and KDRT. Will keep VCSH in the TAFs through
tomorrow morning before some drying is expected. IFR/LIFR ceilings
are expected for the I35 sites with MVFR mainly expected for DRT.
Should see a possible return to VFR by late tomorrow afternoon for
the I35 sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Three focuses for additional rainfall through the afternoon and early
evening. The first will be along the tail end of mid level
disturbance moving through Central Texas leading to showers, with
some embedded moderate rainfall. We will continue the Flash Flood
Watch through 7 PM for Burnet, Williamson, and Travis counties to
account for this activity, where up to 1 inch of additional rainfall
will be possible. This activity should diminish in coverage later
this evening. The second area is closer to a weak surface boundary
across Fayette, Lavaca, and DeWitt counties and southwest into the
Coastal Bend where some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall are
possible before also weakening later this evening. The third area is
associated with a mid level shortwave moving out of Mexico. Should
see an increase in coverage of light to pockets of moderate rainfall
through the afternoon and evening across Webb, Kinney, and Edwards
counties. Overall the intensity of this precip should not result in
significant flooding, so we are canceling the Flash Flood Watch
across the west, but will monitor closely. Closer to the San Antonio
area we have also cancelled the Flash Flood Watch as coverage is
expected to remain isolated and intensity light.

Scattered showers are in the forecast for Saturday, tending to favor
southern and western areas of the CWA through the afternoon and
evening as drier northerly low and mid level flow moves into the
area.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Isentropic ascent will increase along the Rio Grande Sunday while
drier mid level flow and downglide persists across the central and
eastern CWA. Precipitation chances should remain confined Sunday
closer to the Rio Grande.

Models are coming into better agreement with mid level flow returning
quickly from the southwest Sunday night into Monday. A disturbance in
the flow aloft will lead to increasing isentropic ascent and rainfall
should develop southwest to northeast overnight and through the day
on Monday. Some pockets of heavier rainfall could be possible as well
as an isolated thunderstorm or two. The disturbance shifts into the
eastern CWA Monday night. Rain chances have lowered Tuesday across
the CWA, with better focus remaining to the northwest.

The forecast confidence beyond Tuesday decreases considerably. Much
will be dependent on evolution of two Pacific storms and if and where
energy from these systems merge into the southwest flow aloft into
Texas. There appears to potentially be an increase in precipitation
Wednesday and then again late Thursday night into Friday. Again
confidence in timing and locations is low. However, if tap into the
southwest flow aloft from the Pacific does evolve then there could be
the potential for locally heavy rainfall at some point over the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  67  56  68  52 /  60  50  10  -   20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  68  57  69  52 /  60  50  10  -   20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  70  58  70  54 /  50  50  20  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            58  66  53  67  50 /  60  40  10  -   30
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  69  59  64  54 /  50  50  50  40  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  67  54  67  50 /  70  40  -   -   20
Hondo Muni Airport             63  71  60  69  55 /  40  50  30  20  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  68  58  68  53 /  50  50  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   62  70  58  70  54 /  60  50  10  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  70  59  70  54 /  40  50  20  10  30
Stinson Muni Airport           63  71  61  70  56 /  40  50  20  10  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Burnet-Travis-
Williamson.

&&

$$

Aviation...Hampshire
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks