Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 190833
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
333 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A subtle mid level impulse is generating a few showers with an
occasional lightning strike over parts of our area. This feature will
move east of our area by sunrise ending the showers. It must be
noted that none of the models showed this activity and the models in
general have been poor in pinpointing locations of showers and
thunderstorms across our area lately.

Similar to the last several days, expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop along the dryline over western Texas and over the
Serranias del Burro of Mexico. There is a potential of these storms
forming into clusters and moving to the east across the Rio Grande
and Edwards Plateau this evening into the Hill Country to possibly
near the I-35 corridor overnight. Moderate CAPE and steep lapse rates
could allow for isolated strong storms. On Sunday, in addition to the
areas of development noted for today, a weak cold front drops south
across Texas. The front stalls north of our area, however scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop along it and move southeast
into our area. Again, there is possibility of isolated strong storms.
Increased cloud cover and rains will keep daytime temperatures cooler
than the last couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms coming off the Serranias del
Burro and dryline will track across the Hill Country and Rio Grande
Plains Sunday night, possibly reaching the I-35 corridor. Residual
surface boundaries, weak mid level impulses, and heating will
generate scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. Weak ridging
aloft decreases coverage to isolated on Tuesday with no activity
expected Wednesday through Friday, except perhaps along the Rio
Grande due to Serranias del Burro storms. As the rains end, daytime
temperatures will slowly warm during the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  73  89  71  89 /  -   20  40  20  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  73  89  70  88 /  -   20  40  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  73  89  70  88 /  -   20  40  10  30
Burnet Muni Airport            90  71  86  68  86 /  -   20  50  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  73  91  71  89 /  -   30  30  50  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  72  88  69  88 /  10  20  40  20  30
Hondo Muni Airport             94  73  90  70  89 /  -   20  30  40  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  73  89  69  87 /  -   20  40  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  74  89  72  89 /  -   10  30  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  74  89  71  88 /  -   20  40  30  30
Stinson Muni Airport           94  75  90  72  90 /  -   20  30  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...04



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