Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 111951
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

A diffuse frontal boundary from west to east across south-central
Texas will eventually push south this evening, likely aided by
storms that are expected to increase in coverage and move eastward
across the region later this afternoon through the evening hours. At
19z, areas south of the front were mostly sunny with temperatures in
the 80s to near 90 and dew points in the 70s, while north of it
temperatures were in the 60s and low 70s with some light fog and low
stratus. Temperature gradient from La Grange to burnet is nearly 30
degrees!

An approaching shortwave is already setting off convective
development over the SDB mountain range in Mexico, and some WAA
forced elevated storms continue from just east of Sonora
northeastward into the DFW metroplex, with some of that activity now
into our region from Kerr to Burnet counties although with little
thunder until you cross into Lampasas. In addition, a weak
convergence axis stretches from north of Bryan, TX to near Gonzales
although convective development in our area has been minimal at best.

Even in the cool sector, elevated CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg exists
above the inversion with steep lapse rates at mid-levels on the
order of 7.8-8C/km. And SBCAPE has been able to build to 2500-4000
J/KG in the warm sector today. Deep layer shear is a little weaker
today, but still decent west, with the special DRT sounding this
afternoon showing 34 knots 0-6km. As the storms in Mexico slowly
enter the area this evening, they will pose the greatest risk for
large to very large hail and a very low chance for an isolated
tornado south of the front where SRH could briefly increase. Any
supercells will likely quickly grow upscale though.

HRRR still hones in on some storms east of I-35 along the existing
convergence axis this afternoon and isolated severe hail or a brief
downburst could be possible there if storms are able to develop
which appears 50/50 at best. Storms are likely to grow into a SW/NE
oriented quasi-complex through the evening hours and pose a marginal
to slight risk of large hail or damaging winds. There is also a low
chance for isolated flash flood impacts with rainfall amounts of up
to three inches in spots which could occur over already saturated
ground. Flash flood guidance is lowest today from San Antonio west
and southwest to the Rio Grande so those will be the areas to watch.
Severe threat should mostly end by midnight at the latest. Some
lingering showers and storms may remain behind the front but
coverage should decrease quite a bit after midnight.

We have kept some low chances of showers and a few thunderstorms in
the forecast through much of Wednesday as some weak isentropic lift
in conjunction with weak elevated instability could lead to isolated
activity at times, especially near the Rio Grande in the AM.
Coverage will be low, and impacts are generally not expected. Skies
will remain cloudy through the day, and it will be quite cool for
this time of year with highs in the low to mid 60s north and low to
perhaps mid 70s south. In fact, Bergstrom will likely flirt with
record low maxT tomorrow. Wednesday night lows should fall into the
50s and lower 60s with any remaining shower chances relegated to far
southwestern portions of the region overnight, if at all.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

A northwest to west flow aloft is forecast to prevail Thursday and
Friday. Surface winds are expected to turn from northeast to east
on Thursday for most areas with southerly winds returning across the
entire area by midday on Friday. A warming trend is on the way with
highs in the 70s on Thursday and upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday.
Clouds are expected to linger for most of the morning period and
scattered mid to late afternoon both Thursday and Friday.

Showers and storms return across south central Texas on Saturday as
several mid to upper level short waves move from west Texas into
central Texas. The activity diminishes late Saturday night through
early Sunday morning, however, picks up on Sunday as another short
wave traverses across the Southern Plains.

The wet period continues into early next week as the parade of
short waves continue to push over the area. Better chances for rain
come on Tuesday areawide as an upper level system travels across the
four corners region and opens as it moves over the Southern Plains.
The GFS solution pushes a cold front across the area during that time
frame while the ECMWF and CMC models keep a surface southerly flow
through the extended forecast. Time will tell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              62  67  58  75  57 /  70  30  -   -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  62  68  57  75  56 /  70  30  -   -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  69  59  77  58 /  60  40  -   -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            58  65  55  73  56 /  50  20  -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  70  63  77  64 /  60  50  20  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        60  66  57  74  56 /  70  30  -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  71  59  77  59 /  50  30  10  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  68  57  76  56 /  60  30  -   -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   65  70  60  77  59 /  60  40  10  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  70  60  75  59 /  70  30  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  72  61  77  61 /  60  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...KCW
Long-Term...17
Decision Support...Runyen


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