225
FXUS64 KEWX 070555
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from rather slow moving and repeat heavy
  rains continues overnight through early Monday evening. A Flood
  Watch has been issued for the I-35 corridor, Hill Country, and
  Edwards Plateau through 7 PM CDT Monday evening.

- Rain chances continue mid week, take a break late week, then return
  next weekend.

- Temperatures trend toward average as the week progresses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A mid level MCV and moist tropical airmass with PWs of 1.7 to 2.4
inches remain in place over our area and will linger today. Forcing
by this feature has already generated a few showers over Williamson
County. An overwhelming suite of models/ensembles forecast showers
and thunderstorms to increase in coverage overnight into Monday
morning. The favored areas continue to be the I-35 corridor into the
Hill Country with a slight spread toward the Edwards Plateau later
in the morning. Forecast storm motion vectors have sped up a little
compared to recent days. This may somewhat lessen rainfall amounts.
However, locally heavy rains of 2 to 4 inches are expected with up
to 10 inches still possible. These rainfall amounts may cause flash
and possibly renewed river flooding in the watch area. It must be
noted that models vary considerably on where the heaviest rains will
occur within the watch area. The showers and thunderstorms will
dissipate with loss of heating Monday evening.

An upper level trough that has been over the central Gulf of America
will move toward the Texas coast on Tuesday. This will likely take
the MCV away from our area. As a result, it should not impact our
area after today. This scenario is seen in most all of the
models/ensembles. As the trough approaches, chances of showers and
thunderstorms develop from the Coastal Plains to the I-35 corridor
Tuesday afternoon. Moisture levels/PWs decrease some, however still
cannot rule out a few heavy downpours.

The clouds and rain areas keep daytime temperatures slightly below
July averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The mid level trough moves farther inland and develops into a shear
axis between Subtropical Ridges centered over the southwestern
states/northwestern Mexico and the eastern Gulf of America into the
Atlantic. Moisture levels near seasonal levels maintain chances of
showers and thunderstorms across eastern areas Wednesday afternoon.
Although rain is not in the forecast due to a drier airmass, cannot
rule out isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two each
afternoon with heating on Thursday and Friday. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms return next weekend as moisture levels increase
due to the shear axis pushing to our west. Near July average
temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Analyzing recent radar trends decided to add PROB30s from now until
09Z for KAUS and 07Z to 10Z for KSAT and 08Z to 11Z for KSSF to
account for uncertainty with extent of -TSRA timing early this
morning. Any storm that forms would bring extreme rainfall rates and
a reduction in visibilities. Have kept vicinity showers into the
overnight hours with MVFR ceilings returning by 9-10Z this morning
and sticking around through late morning. VFR conditions look to
return in the afternoon. There is a possibility for -RA/-TSRAs to
develop in the afternoon over KAUS but kept mention out of this
forecast due to low confidence. For KDRT expect VFR conditions with
no precip to continue with MVFR conditions possible after 11Z with
VFR CIGs returning by 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  74  94  74 /  30  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  92  74 /  30  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  73  92  72 /  30  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            88  72  90  72 /  50  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  76  95  76 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  74  91  73 /  40  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             91  73  90  72 /  30  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  93  72 /  30  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  92  74 /  40  10  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  75  91  75 /  30  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           94  75  93  74 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...CJM