Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 222359
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all sites with southeasterly surface winds.
Convection is ongoing across portions of the area, but as of right
now are avoiding any TAF sites. This should continue to be the case,
and this is reflected in the 00z TAF issuance with VCTS being
removed. However, there is still a slight chance for some showers and
possibly a rumble of thunder or two to approach the TAF sites.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail for the rest of the
afternoon and evening hours. Lower clouds dropping flight categories
into MVFR at all sites are anticipated to develop by early Wednesday
morning with IFR CIGs expected at SAT/SSF by 9z and AUS by 12z.
Conditions should improve to MVFR by mid morning and then back to VFR
at all sites by early Wednesday afternoon. Winds should remain
generally out of the southeast for the entire forecast period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Afternoon radar imagery shows another round of isolated to scattered
showers and storms across portions of south central Texas. Most of
the activity is likely to remain along the Highway 77 corridor.
However, we can`t rule out some activity farther east toward the I-35
corridor. Elsewhere, some convection is developing across the higher
terrain west of the Rio Grande. We will hang on to a low chance for
isolated storms across the Rio Grande plains in case some of this
convection moves east toward the Rio Grande. Once we loose the
daytime heating, all areas should see a decrease in convection.
Otherwise, look for another warm night with lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. Very similar weather conditions are expected on Wednesday
and we expect another round of isolated to scattered convection
along and east of the I-35 corridor. Highs on Wednesday will increase
slightly with max temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in the Hill
Country to near 95 along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The forecast for the remainder of the week into early next week will
generally yield dry and warm conditions across south central Texas.
For Thursday and Friday, we should see enough moisture to generate
some isolated convection for areas along the Highway 77 corridor.
Similar to the last couple of days, most of the activity will
coincide with peak afternoon heating. Otherwise, we expect warming
temperatures as the low-level thermal ridge strengthens across Texas.
By Monday, highs will range from the mid 90s in the Hill Country to
100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande. A few spots along the I-35
corridor will be very close to the 100 degree mark. We will continue
to monitor any tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, but for now
it appears the subtropical ridge axis will remain the dominant
weather feature through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  90  71  92  72 /  10  20  -   10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  90  67  92  69 /  10  20  -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  90  67  91  69 /  10  20  -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            68  88  68  90  69 /  10  -   -   -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  93  72  96  73 /  10   0  -    0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  68  91  70 /  10  20  -   10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  68  93  68 /  10  10  -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  90  69  92  69 /  20  20  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  90  70  92  71 /  20  30  10  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  90  71  92  71 /  10  20  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           71  91  70  93  71 /  10  20  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Williams
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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