


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
893 FXUS64 KEWX 120623 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances most areas this weekend into early next week. - Threat of heavy rains later today through Sunday night with the highest chances across portions of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County. - Trending drier mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Nearly seasonal average moisture levels increase to 150%+ of average as southerly flow deepens in the lower to mid levels today. With heating, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop late this morning into this afternoon. At the same time, an upper level trough drifting to the east over the Plains drags a cool front south into northern and western portions of Texas. Forcing by the front will generate showers and thunderstorms over those areas this afternoon with the steering flow bringing some of them into the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County tonight. Forcing continues for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over most areas. HREF and CAMs indicate isolated pockets of heavy rains this afternoon through Sunday. However, they vary considerably with respect to the amounts and where/when they will fall. WPC has maintained marginal to slight (1 to 2 out of 4) risks of excessive rainfall for today through Sunday with the highest risks across portions of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County. Later forecasts may have to issue a Flood Watch if confidence increases regarding the specifics of the heavy rains. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, however, gusty winds are possible with the collapse of any thunderstorms. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of, though slightly below mid July averages. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Part of the Plains trough drops southwest into a shear axis over western Texas early next week. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms shift to the western Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains where the greatest moisture levels and forcing is forecast. However, the seabreeze should generate some showers and thunderstorms from the Coastal Plains to near I-35. The shear axis gradually shifts to the west as the Subtropical Ridge builds in from the east. Rain chances end most areas, though linger across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains mid week. Seabreeze showers and thunderstorms may return by next weekend to near the Coastal Plains. As the airmass, soils, and vegetation dry, a warming trend is expected, though temperatures will remain within a few degrees of average. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR cigs are forecast to prevail across all area sites for the first or couple of hours of this cycle. Then, MVFR cigs begin no later than 08Z and remain through 15Z along the I-35 sites. For DRT, MVFR cigs are forecast to start later around 10Z and remain through 16Z. VFR cigs return after 15Z/16Z time frame with a prevailing southeasterly flow with speeds around 11 to 18 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots for most of the afternoon into the evening. Have a PROB30 from 20Z to 24Z for KAUS as storms are forecast to push across the terminal area. MVFR return for the I-35 terminals around 07Z Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 75 94 76 / 30 20 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 40 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 75 94 74 / 20 10 30 10 Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 89 73 / 40 30 40 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 77 95 77 / 10 20 20 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 74 92 74 / 40 20 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 93 75 94 74 / 10 10 30 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 75 94 74 / 30 10 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 75 92 75 / 40 10 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 96 76 / 20 10 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...04 Aviation...17