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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051100
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
600 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period with mostly clear
skies around the area. For the I35 site, light northeasterly winds
are expected for much of the period with little to no operational
impacts expected. For DRT, southeasterly winds will pick up in speeds
this afternoon around 10-15 knots expected. Otherwise, no major
impacts are expected with this TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT Wed May 5 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Light northerly winds continue to prevail across South-Central Texas
behind yesterday`s cold front. In addition to the cool breeze,
clear skies are also left in its wake allowing temperatures to fall
into the 50s and 60s across the region. The light northeast/east
winds will continue for the duration of the short-term forecast as
gulf flow remains shut off with northwest flow aloft remaining in
place across the Central Plains. Highs today will top out in the 79-
89 degree range across the area with the higher temperatures in the
Rio Grande Plains. These temperatures are at or just below our new
1991-2020 climate normals. For tonight, mostly clear skies will lead
to another night in the 50s to lower 60s. Clear skies will continue
Thursday with highs a bit warmer, into the middle 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
An upper level ridge will move over the southern plains Thursday
night and Friday. At the surface high pressure will move across North
Texas turning the winds from the east to the southeast by Saturday
morning. The result will be dry weather with moderate temperatures.
Low temperatures will warm each morning while highs will be steady
through Saturday. Southerly to southeasterly flow will bring warmer
air for Sunday and Monday. Monday a dryline will move in from West
Texas bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
eastern half of the area. Models are not in good agreement on this
system and the GFS shows strong convection moving across our CWA
from west to east. The National Blend of Models has a much weaker
signal with only slight to low chance POPs. We will lean toward the
blend at this time and see how things develop over time. Tuesday a
cold front will drop down through North Texas and there may be
sufficient lift ahead of the front to produce isolated convection
early in the day. There will be better chances during the afternoon
and evening as the front gets closer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              80  58  85  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  55  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  57  86  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  55  82  59  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  62  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  55  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             85  57  88  60  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  56  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  59  85  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  59  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  60  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire
Long-Term...05