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000
FXUS64 KEWX 230549
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings have already set in across the I-35 terminals and
should build westward to DRT by 10z tonight. Winds generally
overnight will be out of the south and southeast between 8-11 knots.
A few areas could see ceilings dip to IFR for a few hours around
sunrise, especially around the San Antonio area. The coming cold
front is currently moving across North Texas and is still on track to
arrive between 19z-21z at the terminals. Gusty north winds will
prevail behind the front with sustained winds 15-18 knots, and gusts
as high as 24-28 knots. Ceilings should lift to VFR just ahead of the
front, but will persist behind the front through the afternoon hours.
A few isolated showers, and maybe a thunderstorm, will be possible
along and ahead of the front but due to the uncertainty in location,
and the expected sparse nature of the activity have not mentioned
precip in the 06z TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Current radar still showing some very isolated showers in our
eastern counties. This activity should continue into the early
evening. Tonight, cloudiness returns and another warm and humid is to
be expected. Overnight lows will again be in the upper 60s to low
70s. Friday, a cold front approaches the area from the north. Right
now it looks like the arrival time of the front will be near max
heating, so the high temperatures will reflect the placement of the
front. Should the front move faster, temps will be hard pressed to
reach 80s along I-35, however, for now the highs for the area will be
70s in the Hill Country and 80s elsewhere. The northerly wind behind
the front will be gusty at times and there may be a chance for some
showers along the front as it pushes through the moist airmass
currently in place. As the drier air moves in overnight, the low
temperatures Friday night have some room to drop in the 40s in the
Hill Country and 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
More seasonable like temperatures are expected on Saturday in the
wake of tomorrow`s cold front. However, a return flow will quickly
set up late Saturday and into Sunday, leading to above normal
temperatures again for Sunday.

The next cold front is still on track for Monday. Timing will be
critical to high temperatures on Monday, as temperatures are likely
to fall behind it during the day. Confidence in timing of the front
is low given the upper level cut off low pattern developing to the
west, and shallow nature of the cold front. Some showers are possible
along and behind the front during the day on Monday.

There is a wide spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members with
the strength of the front and where exactly it ends up stalling just
to the southeast. It appears we could see a chance for light
rain/weak elevated showers Monday night into Tuesday given the
aforementioned shallow nature of the front and potential for
isentropic ascent over it as the upper level low remains west. We
have stuck close to the NBM PoPs and temperatures for Monday and
Tuesday given the high degree of spread in the guidance.

Timing of when and also where the upper level low ejects east across
Texas is also low. The operational GFS remains more progressive than
the ECMWF with ejecting the low east, but again there is a large
spread in the ensemble members for the GFS. Having said that, there
is a potential for some deeper elevated convection to develop as the
trough swings across, given steep elevated lapse rates, some time
Tuesday night through Wednesday following the GFS, or Wednesday into
early Thursday if you follow the slower ECMWF. We have also stuck
close to NBM temperatures for Wednesday given the spread in guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78  52  70  60  85 /  20  -    0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  52  70  59  86 /  20  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  52  73  62  89 /  20  -    0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  48  68  59  84 /  20   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  54  77  62  91 /  10  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  49  69  58  85 /  30  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             83  53  75  61  90 /  10  -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  52  71  60  87 /  20  -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  53  72  62  87 /  20  -    0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       81  53  72  62  87 /  20  -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  54  72  62  88 /  10  -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...Oaks