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000
FXUS64 KEWX 220811
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Cold front is now through the majority of south-central Texas, with
lingering thunderstorm activity across the Rio Grande Plains and far
southeastern Coastal Plains counties. These were prolific lightning
producers through the evening and overnight, but storms have been
sub-severe for the most part early this morning. CAMS suggest
isolated to scattered storms will remain possible over the southern,
eastern, and western periphery of our area near the boundary but
with continued waning intensity through the AM. Any activity is
likely to come to an end before noon.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected through the daytime with
the first below average temperatures of the month! Highs will be
mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but a couple of spots could
climb into the upper 80s south and west if they get a little more
sun. Dew points will be a bit less oppressive than yesterday,
especially across the Hill Country. However, they`ll tick back up
slightly through the afternoon and evening.

Most of tonight looks to be dry across the region, with seasonal
overnight lows in the 60s to lower 70s. An approaching trough could
kick off isolated to scattered showers and storms for our western
counties prior to sunrise Monday. There`s some stark differences in
the CAMS with the potential for daytime storms, but chances will
increase through the day and remain highest west of US-281 prior to
00Z Tuesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
during this time, but increasing severe chances are likely after
00Z. Instability will be highest over our east, further from the
forcing, but isolated development cannot be ruled out in this area.
Late in the day, deep layer shear may increase just enough to
support a supercell or two if any storms develop in the region,
which could pose a low end tornado risk. More concerned about the
potential for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail further
west at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the long-term forecast Monday night as a weak disturbance moves over
the region. Some of this activity could be strong to severe as
moderate instability and shear will likely lead to some multicellular
clusters capable of producing large hail and perhaps gusty winds.
Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Monday night to account for
this activity. The bulk of the rainfall will likely end for Tuesday,
but there does remain some uncertainty in the guidance on the
expected coverage of activity Tuesday. Lows Monday night will be in
the 60s to near 70 with highs Tuesday in the 80s for most locations.

The next cold front will arrive to the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and will likely bring with it yet another round of
showers and possible strong to severe storms to the area. The eastern
counties will have the best chances at the heavier precipitation
with this system. Instability amounts will lead to some possible
large hail and damaging winds from this system. The bulk of the rain
will be out of the area by Wednesday evening with a dry forecast
Thursday through the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures
behind the front will be back in the 50s and 60s for lows Thursday
with highs in the 80s. A slow warm up can then be expected on Friday
and Saturday with highs Saturday in the 90s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

/06Z TAFS/
MVFR cigs are expected overnight across the I-35 terminals through
16Z Sunday. For KDRT, MVFR cigs could happen at any minute within the
06Z to 07Z hour as a complex of storms move from the international
border into southern Val Verde County. Hires models suggest for that
activity to continue for several hours overnight with stronger storms
bringing thunderstorm wind gusts up to 30 knots. VFR cigs are
forecast across the area airports around 17Z Sunday. Northerly winds
are expected to remain up overnight into Sunday with speeds around 10
to 15 knots for most of the morning. The wind relaxes in the
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible
Sunday afternoon mainly across the coastal Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  67  84  68 /  20  10  50  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  67  84  68 /  20  10  50  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  67  85  68 /  20  10  50  70
Burnet Muni Airport            79  64  83  67 /  10  10  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           85  71  84  69 /  20  50  80  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  66  83  68 /  20  10  50  70
Hondo Muni Airport             85  69  85  68 /  20  10  70  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  67  85  68 /  20  10  50  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   82  69  88  70 /  40  10  50  70
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  69  84  68 /  20  10  60  80
Stinson Muni Airport           85  71  87  72 /  20  10  60  80

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...29
Aviation...17