815
FXUS64 KEWX 130447
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1047 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Key Messages...

- Cool and dry conditions continue across the region

- Brisk wind chill values in the 20s to low 30s to start the day on Monday

A weak cold front has moved through the area. Cool, dry, northerly
flow will continue today and tonight with thin cirrus streaming out
of the southwest. The winds are forecast to weaken along the Rio
Grande this evening. However, a second surge of high pressure later
tonight will result in an increase in north to northeast winds
across portions of the Hill Country and along and east of the I-35
corridor. A light freeze is forecast across portions of the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau tonight, however winds and
mixing at most other locations will keep air temperatures above
freezing, but a brisk wind chill in the 20s to low 30s to start the
day Monday.

Cooler high temperatures Monday, with highs only in the low to mid
50s for most locations, upper 50s to low 60s along the Rio Grande.
We are forecasting an increase in coverage and thickness of the
cirrus Monday night. Nevertheless, winds are forecast to diminish
Monday evening, leading to colder low temperatures Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Key Messages...

- Cool mornings with increasingly warmer afternoons can be expected through
  the week.

- Another Arctic cold front looks to impact the region this upcoming weekend,
  bringing cold temperatures heading into next week.

Persistent ridging and zonal flow aloft will keep most of South-Central
Texas dry through Thursday. Temperatures should remain near to slightly
below normal during this period, with daytime highs in the 50s and
60s and morning lows in the upper-30s to low-40s across the region. A
stationary inverted trough over the western Gulf will supply some
cloudiness over our area, though a lack of low-level winds will limit
low-level moisture and largely suppress rain chances outside of the
Coastal Plain for most of the work week. High pressure will begin to
move out of our area Thursday night, allowing for south-southwesterly
low-level winds to become established. This will deliver warmer
temperatures and higher dew points to the region, with highs
approaching 70 in the Hill Country and reaching the low-70s elsewhere
on Friday. Lows Friday and Saturday morning should range between the
mid-40s to low-50s, with the warmest temperatures in the Coastal
Plains.

A broad upper-level trough should approach our area heading into the
weekend. The latest deterministic guidance is quite varied with
regard to the structure of that trough, though in general its
distinctly positive tilt will tend to displace higher rain chances
towards the east on Friday and Saturday. Uncertainties over timing
and the lack of any substantial saturated low-level layer on current
guidance will keep PoPs low (<30%) and limited to the eastern half
of our area. A cold front is expected to arrive Saturday, ushering
in a much cooler and drier Arctic airmass. Temperatures could be
quite cold Sunday morning, with the NBM and long-range ensembles
indicating a possible freeze for the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau. Continued troughing over the eastern US heading
into next week will favor below-average temperatures for our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

VFR flight conditions continue through the period. Mid to high
clouds will filter in and out through the period with the greatest
areal coverage after sunset Monday night. A few low clouds could
reach the San Antonio terminals late in the TAF period toward early
Tuesday morning. At the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF), winds
will slightly uptick overnight through early Monday afternoon from
the north-northeast. Speeds then decline into Monday evening and
night. Winds will remain lighter at KDRT and trends more from the
north-northwest before turning more southeasterly during Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              36  55  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  36  55  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     37  56  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            33  53  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           36  59  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        34  52  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             35  58  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        36  55  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   37  54  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       39  57  36  57 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           39  58  37  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...TRAN
Aviation...Brady