Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 261937
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
With high pressure building at the mid and upper levels across West
Texas and a trough across the southeast US strong northerly flow will
continue at the mid levels while southerly flow continues at the
surface. A few of the high resolution models (NAM Nest, ARM, NMM, and
Texas Tech WRF) all show an isolated thunderstorm or two developing
in this northerly flow and moving south late this afternoon into the
evening hours. After several dry runs the 18z HRRR is also showing an
isolated storm. With remnant boundaries still around from yesterdays
storms and plenty of afternoon heating an isolated storm or two does
seem plausible. Based on this a slight chance of showers and storms
has been included across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau to
account for the range of locations the various models show the
isolated storms moving into. With the loss of daytime heating any
storms that do form should begin to weaken leaving a mild night
across the area. Some low clouds and fog will be possible once again
along the Coastal Plains, but should remain east and south of the
I-35 corridor.

Sunday, and really the next 5 days can be summed up as hot and dry.
The ridge axis begins to shift eastward situating itself over Central
Texas cutting off any rain chances. Afternoon highs will begin to
creep higher under sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...
Memorial Day will be hot and dry across South Central Texas with
highs in the upper 90s to near 105 across the Rio Grande. Afternoon
heat index values will feel like 100-105 for all areas - perfect for
floating the Comal or staying cool with family and friends during a
cookout. Going through the work week high pressure will only
strengthen its hold on Texas weather as Tropical Storm Alberto makes
landfall across the Gulf Coast. With the high pressure building in
temperatures will continue to climb with highs a few degrees either
side of the century mark for most areas by mid-week. This is about 10
degrees above seasonal normals for the last week of May. With no
rain in sight and dry air begin to dry out fuels fire weather may
become a concern by late next week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  74  98  75  97 /  -   -   -    0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  73  97  73  97 /  -   -   -    0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  72  98  73  98 /  -   -    0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            97  73  96  73  96 /  -   -   -    0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          105  73 106  76 104 /  -   -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  73  96  73  95 /  -   -   -    0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  71 101  72 101 /  -   -    0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  72  98  73  99 /  -   -   -    0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  74  96  74  96 /  -   -   10  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  73  99  75  99 /  -   -    0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  73  99  74  99 /  -   -    0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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