Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 240451
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1051 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR through the TAF period for all sites. Winds have decreased and
will stay light overnight before turning more northeasterly and
slightly increasing by daybreak.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

UPDATE...
A relaxing surface pressure gradient as a strong surface cyclone over
Iowa pulls towards the Great Lakes and surface ridging builds into
the Southern Plains has allowed for north to northwest winds across
South Central Texas to decrease this evening. Evening radiosonde
observations still show a very strong upper level jet translating
across the region and despite negligible low/mid moisture below 300
MB, these upper level winds are pulling Pacific moisture across
Mexico and into the state. This is resulting in a rather persistent
canopy of cirrus that model guidance is struggling to resolve. Main
updates to the forecast were to increase cloud cover through the
early morning hours as these strong winds lift away from the region
as well as adjustments to overnight temperatures and dew points based
on observations. The cirrus canopy may be thick enough to slow down
radiational cooling a bit this evening, but expect temperatures to
drop into the lower/mid 30s in the Hill Country and mid 30s to lower
40s elsewhere as winds continue to relax within a very dry airmass
and have lowered overnight lows a few degrees as a result.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR at all sites this afternoon in the wake of this mornings frontal
passage. All sites still experiencing gusty winds, but speed will
continue to decrease through the evening and overnight. Winds switch
around from the north and then northeast. Only some decreasing high
clouds for sky condition.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Sat Feb 23 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Visible satellite photos show the Pacific front moving across the
Corpus Christi near-shore waters. In the wake of the front, breezy
and gusty west to northwest winds will continue to affect the area
for the next several hours before wind speeds come down this evening.
In the meantime, a Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6 PM this
evening for areas along and west of Highway 281 due to dry air and
strong winds of 15 to 25 MPH. These conditions could help the spread
of any fire that manages to develop. Otherwise, some high clouds are
expected this evening into Sunday morning with lows ranging from the
lower 30s across the Hill Country to lower 40s across the Coastal
Plains.

Dry weather conditions continue on Sunday into the evening hours with
highs slightly below climate normal values around the lower to mid
60s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Zonal weather pattern is in store for the new work-week. Rain
chances return on Tuesday mainly for areas along and east of I-35 as
several short-waves move within the zonal flow aloft and a surface
inverted trough develops across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This
surface feature is forecast to push inland and slowly move into the
Coastal Plains. Models do agree with the position/location of the
surface trough, however, differ on the precipitation placement and
amounts. Therefore, the extended forecast period shows a blend of
model solutions and rainfall accumulations of few hundredths to one
tenth of an inch for the period.

Friday looks dry at least across the eastern two-thirds of the area after
the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday. A second and stronger
front is expected late Friday night into Saturday. Could be breezy
and gusty as well in the wake of the frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6 PM this evening for
areas along and west of Highway 281 due to dry air and west to
northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH. A combination of strong
winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute
to extreme fire behavior.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              39  63  42  65  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  38  64  40  65  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     38  64  41  65  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            34  61  39  63  50 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           39  70  43  69  53 /   0   0   0   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  61  39  63  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             37  68  42  68  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        38  64  41  66  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   41  64  41  65  53 /   0   0   0  -   20
San Antonio Intl Airport       40  65  43  66  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           40  67  43  67  54 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...YB
Short-Term/Long-Term...Huffman


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