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000
FXUS64 KEWX 030532
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1232 AM CDT Mon May 3 2021

.AVIATION...
All terminals are currently VFR. Low clouds are beginning to move
inland from the coast and we expect MVFR ceilings to reach AUS within
the next couple of hours. The westward extent of this cloud shield is
in question for the rest of the night. We bring MVFR ceilings to the
San Antonio area by around 11Z, but they may not get that far west.
All terminals will rebound to VFR by late morning. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in Austin and San
Antonio, but the probability is too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. MVFR ceilings will redevelop late tonight in Austin and
San Antonio.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM CDT Sun May 2 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Southwesterly lower to mid level flow off the Sierra Madre and
Serranias del Burro of Mexico has brought a drier airmass along with
much warmer temperatures to South Central Texas.

Southeasterly flow returns tonight with increasing moisture
resulting in stratus from the Coastal Plains to the I-35 corridor
into the eastern Hill Country. Warm and humid conditions are
expected across those areas. A dryline will move east across our
western areas early to mid morning on Monday, then stall just west
of or along the I-35 corridor in the afternoon. High temperatures
will warm even more from those of today. Forecast soundings show a
capping inversion at time of peak heating that may be able to be
broken by a combination of the dryline and strong heating. Have
maintained slight chances of showers and thunderstorms across the
far eastern Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor late Monday
afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings show MUCAPE of
2,500 to 3,500 J/kg indicating a potential for isolated strong to
severe storms, should the cap break allowing for convective
development. A cold front will move across our area Monday night.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Cannot rule out a strong storm or two. Breezy conditions are
expected late Monday night as high pressure builds into our area.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
As the cold front moves through the area Tuesday morning, chances for
showers and thunderstorms move with it and clear the area by Tuesday
afternoon. Tuesday will hold onto slightly cooler and drier air, and
Tuesday night, lows expected in the 50s and low 60s. Wednesday will
kick off a warming trend as the surface high settles in.  Meanwhile,
upper ridging over the Rockies and northwest flow aloft leave a
pretty mild forecast through the week. By the weekend, highs reach
the 90s as the next system approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  65  78  56  80 /  20  50  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  65  78  55  80 /  20  50  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  67  80  57  82 /  20  40  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  62  76  53  78 /  20  40  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  65  86  60  87 /   0  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  64  77  54  79 /  20  40  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  64  82  57  85 /  -   30  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  65  79  55  81 /  20  40  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  69  79  57  81 /  10  40  50   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  67  79  58  82 /  20  40  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  68  80  60  84 /  10  40  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...Hampshire