Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 151114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
614 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Satellite imagery is picking up on the beginning of a
stratus/stratocumulus deck around 5000-8000ft AGL off to the SW of
Houston. This cloud cover should spread over much of the area from
15Z to 21Z today. Ceilings should then begin to lower reaching
MVFR levels 02Z-06Z Friday. Lower ceilings are expected to begin
from west to east across the area so KCLL/KSGR/KLBX may be the
first terminals with MVFR conditions. Due to the increase in
moisture, expect showers to develop mainly after 06Z Friday
although there could be some showers before then. Main question in
the extended portion of the TAF will be whether IFR ceilings
develop 10-15Z Friday. This is certainly possible but confidence
is not all that high. There should be a good 30-35kt low level jet
that develops which may keep ceilings in the 1000-1500ft range
although could see some scattered 700-800ft clouds develop. Future
TAF updates will likely be able to fine tune ceilings and timing
for Friday morning.

Overall winds should increase today with 12-14kt sustained winds
this afternoon area wide. There may be some gusts around 20 knots
but probably not frequent enough to put in the TAFs. The lone
exception is KCLL where there is higher confidence for gusts.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 308 AM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018/...

High pressure has pushed off to the east allowing onshore flow to
return to the area. This morning will be the last cool morning
for a while, as deeper moisture returns and overnight low
temperatures rise into the 60s starting tonight. Today will be a
transition day between the cooler, dry conditions we`ve had to a
more cloudy, humid, and wet pattern this weekend. The day will
start out similar to yesterday, but cloud cover will gradually
increase throughout the day with a chance for some streamer
showers over the western portions of the area. High temperatures
today are forecast in the mid 70s.

Tomorrow through the weekend will be warm with highs in the 80s,
humid, mostly cloudy, and feature several periods of showers and
thunderstorms. Ridging aloft will begin to break down and shift
eastward today, causing the 500mb pattern to become more
southwesterly with a series of disturbances rotating across
Friday through the weekend. These disturbances coupled with ample
moisture over the area should be enough to get several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms going across the region. A couple models
are hinting at some weak capping in place on Friday, which if it
holds could hinder coverage and thunderstorm development. PoPs on
Friday have been pared back a little for that reason.

A cold front will push through the area early Monday morning,
bringing an end to the wet pattern. Although temperatures will
only be a touch cooler in the wake of the front, beautiful weather
can be expected with much drier and mostly sunny conditions
forecast through midweek next week.  11

Southerly winds should increase today into Friday with conditions
possibly reaching small craft exercise caution levels for the
offshore waters. Winds turn south to southwest over the weekend as a
frontal boundary stalls well inland. A stronger front may push off
the coast Monday with northwest to north winds. Winds may increase
from the north to northeast on Tuesday as high pressure builds south.

Seas will remain at low levels and then begin to increase tonight
into Friday with the increase in winds and fetch. Seas may remain
around 3 to 4 feet through the weekend.

Increasing southerly winds may also increase tide levels especially
on Friday. Tide levels may reach a half foot above normal along the
Upper Texas Coast. Tides may stay slightly elevated into the weekend.


Higher relative humidity levels are expected today and through the
weekend as southerly winds bring back moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico along with higher transport winds. Patchy fog and low clouds
may be possible Friday morning. Rain chances do increase over the
weekend with the best chances of showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday. Monday a frontal boundary pushes through with much drier air
and stronger NW winds. We may need to monitor for elevated fire
weather conditions for Monday.




College Station (CLL)  74  62  82  63  82 /  10  20  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)          75  64  81  66  81 /  10  20  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)        72  67  74  68  75 /  10  20  30  10  30






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