Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 131110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

This should be a VFR set of TAFs, but KCXO has some patchy MVFR
fog which should be short lived. Otherwise high clouds will stream
over the area. Winds will be from the N/NE under 8-10kts.



.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 344 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/...

.Short Term Discussion...

Generally light N to NE winds and mostly clear skies are expected
today as high pressure slides into the region. Light winds and
sunny conditions should allow temperatures to begin to rebound
some today and tomorrow. High pressure will slide off to the east,
allowing onshore flow to return late Wednesday. The return of
moderate onshore flow will quickly pump moisture back into the
region, allowing highs to climb into the mid 70s on Thursday and
even the low 80s Friday through the weekend.

Rain chances increase late Thursday into the weekend as the upper
level pattern becomes oriented more SW to NE and a series of
disturbances roll across the region. A weak front may enter the
region this weekend, but will quickly stall out with minimal upper
level support. Models still differ quite significantly on the
strength and timing of the upper level disturbances, with the GFS
seeming very bullish compared to the ECMWF. Moisture return with
the GFS seems a little high with PWs near 1.8 inches on Sunday
compared to the ECMWF only near 1.3-1.4. GFS ensemble is even
showing a cluster closer to 1.4 to 1.5, so the forecast is hedged
towards the weaker ECMWF solution. Even still, it will be
something to keep an eye on, especially with a potential stalled
boundary draped across the region.

The next more substantial cold front looks to push through the
area early next week. Both the 00Z GFS and ECMWF are now pushing
the front all the way off the coast, which shows much more
consistency than previous runs. It`s still over a week away
though, so we`ll have to see if these trends continue over the
next several days.


Northeast winds will continue today and gradually turn east to
southeast tomorrow into Thursday as high pressure moves east.
Southerly winds increase Thursday into Friday before decreasing over
the weekend as a frontal boundary stalls inland. A stronger front
may be possible early next week which will shift winds.

Seas will remain at low levels and then begin to increase Thursday
night into Friday with the increase in winds. Seas may remain around
3 to 5 feet through the weekend.

Increasing southerly winds may also increase tide levels especially
on Friday. Tide levels may reach a half foot above normal along the
Upper Texas Coast.


Dry conditions are expected today with relative humidity around 30
percent for most of the area this afternoon. Winds will be light
from the NE staying around 10 mph or under. Mixing heights should
reach around 6000 feet with transport winds around 10 mph from the
north to northeast. Higher relative humidity levels are expected
towards the end of the week as southerly winds bring back moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog and low clouds may be possible
Friday morning.




College Station (CLL)  68  41  69  48  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Houston (IAH)          71  46  72  50  76 /   0   0   0   0  10
Galveston (GLS)        68  54  68  57  73 /   0   0   0   0  10






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