Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 301953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
253 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023


(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

An upper low will move inland over southern California today. This
will dig into the trough and amplify the ridge downstream over west
Texas. It will hold in place for much of the day and bring benign
conditions and seasonal temperatures across the region with highs in
the mid-to-upper 80s. A weak shortwave will track near the TX/NM
border this evening leading to the potential development of isolated
thunderstorms west of I-27/US-87. However, greatest instability will
be located to east of the area with the best forcing. The CAPE that
does exist closer to the shortwave looks to be quite elevated (above
approximately 600 mb). That all said, latest high-res guidance does
indicate a line of convection in this area tracking west to east
between around 7pm-midnight. Sounding profiles likewise suggest that
high winds would be the main threat should any storms become severe.
Otherwise, a quiet night is expected thereafter with clearing skies
and light southeasterly winds.

Wednesday looks to be more active with favorable upper level
dynamics as the aforementioned upper low continues to track
eastward, displacing the ridge over our area. A stronger shortwave
will move through during the afternoon and evening hours likely
leading to the development of storms, again near the TX/NM border.
These will generally move from southwest to northeast and persist
into Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail are among the main
threats along with localized flash flooding, especially given recent
heavy rains across portions of the forecast area.


(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

By Thursday morning a 500 mb trough will be positioned just off the
Western U.S. coast with several perturbations within it. The initial
wave will be approaching the Four Corners with a sub-tropical jet
moving over the forecast area. However, a complex of showers and
thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning which based on the
upper-level support may continue through the late morning. If this
is the case then temperatures may need to be lowered and afternoon
rain chances may need to be decreased as the atmosphere may not have
enough time to recover. Friday an additional shortwave is expected
to lift northeast from Mexico into the forecast area around peak
heating. With a surface dryline in place near the TX/NM state line
convective development looks likely and then spreading to the east
through the evening and early overnight hours. Parameter space would
be conducive for severe weather with the potential for all hazards
including heavy rainfall possible but of course the mesoscale
details will change.

Moisture will remain trapped over our region through the weekend
which will keep the threat for thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening possible. Activity should be more isolated as shortwave
ridging builds aloft limiting the overall upper-level support for
more widespread convection with mesoscale details playing a large
role in where convection develops. Ensemble mean guidance remains
fairly consistent in keeping the next 500 mb low over California
going into next week as a weak Omega block develops. This will
keep the moisture trapped over our region through at least the
first half of next week hence thunderstorm chances and the
possibility for severe weather and heavy rain will continue. /WI


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023

VFR conditions and generally light southeasterly winds will
persist though Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms may develop along
the TX/NM border this evening and track eastward, however they
are not expected to reach KLBB or KPVW.




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