395
FXUS64 KLUB 081738
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1138 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

 - Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in the
   extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle Monday afternoon.

 - Unseasonably warm this week, around 10 to 20 degrees above
   normal.

 - Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening, then again
   Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Abnormally Warm weather will continue for this afternoon and again
on Monday. A surface trough will continue to progress through the
region this afternoon shifting winds to the north. A closed off low
will remain nearly stationary off the coast of Baja California
through the day on Monday and become increasingly cut off from the
main upper flow. This will bring short wave ridging overhead on
Monday with even warmer temperatures. Further enhancing temperatures
will be breezy downsloping southwesterly surface winds.

An active northern stream will induce a surface response in the lee
of the Rockies in eastern Colorado. Surface cyclogenesis will
develop over southeastern Colorado on Monday with a surface pressure
trough extending southward into eastern New Mexico. This will allow
winds to quickly swing back around to the southwest. The increase in
winds will primarily be from the increase in surface pressure
gradient stemming from the surface cyclogenesis. Boundary layer
mixing will only be around 3-4kft on Monday with winds at this level
only on the order of 15-20kt. Additionally, high level cloud cover
will be on the increase during the afternoon possibly shunting any
further deepening of the boundary layer. These southwesterly winds
will push temperatures even warmer with mid to upper 70s on the
caprock and lower 80s off the caprock. However, these forecast
temperatures are still several degrees short of the records for Feb
9.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Wet and unseasonably warm conditions look to be the main message of
the extended forecast package. By the start of the period, the
stubborn upper ridge will have begun shifting eastward in response
to an approaching cutoff low from central Mexico. Unfortunately,
global models are still not handling the evolution of this system as
well as we had hoped leading to a low confidence forecast still in
regards specifically to precipitation chances Tuesday. As it stands,
the ECMWF continues to be the quicker and more northern model track
compared to the GFS and NAM solutions that have come in slower and
slightly more southerly in track. Regardless, one thing all three
solutions seem to have in common is that the core of the H5 jet will
be positioned south of the FA, limiting the overall large scale
ascent associated with this system for the region. Nonetheless, flow
aloft (from H8 to H5) will prevail out of the southwest and aid in
moisture transport into the region through  mid-week. Additionally,
southerly surface flow will also be working in tandem with flow
aloft to drawl in moisture from the Gulf into the FA, with guidance
hinting at a tongue of theta-e stretching into portions of the
Caprock regions Tuesday afternoon and evening. Given most large
scale ascent looks to be positioned south of the FA, lift for
precipitation chances will come from Tuesday`s FROPA and weak
isentropic ascent noted at the 305K level. Depending on what track
this system takes, will determine how much precipitation is
expected, but given the recent model runs there has been an increase
in confidence for PoPs across our area compared to this time
yesterday. In fact, MOS guidance has nearly tripled for PoPs Tuesday
afternoon along with ensemble guidance now highlighting larger
probabilities for at least 0.01" of rainfall. Therefore, will go
ahead and maintain widespread NBM mentionable slight chance to
chance PoPs for the Caprock regions with the highest chances fixated
across our most southern row of counties where better forcing and
moisture will reside. We will quickly dry out mid-week through the
end of the week, as the system ejects to the northeast and upper
level ridging begins to build back in. However, ensembles are
hinting at the weekend bringing renewed chances for more beneficial
rainfall as an upper level low over the Desert Southwest approaches
the Panhandle region Saturday. NBM seems to be hinting at the
potential for precipitation chances beginning as early as Thursday
evening as subtle perturbations ahead of the trough track through,
although this will be determined by the amount of moisture return
possible before then. Will go ahead and maintain NBM mentionable
PoPs beginning Thursday through Saturday, but this will likely need
to be adjusted in future forecasts as this event gets closer and
confidence increases.

As for temperatures, unseasonably warm will be the main theme as
previously mentioned as the FA remains positioned beneath an upper
level ridge for most of the period. The exception will be for
Tuesday into Wednesday and towards the weekend as a pair of upper
level lows track into the region. Nonetheless, above normal
climatological means geopotential heights are expected to continue
leading to daily afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s for much of the
week. Wednesday and Friday look to be the "coolest" days of the
week, which will be in part to a pair of cold fronts swinging
through the region on Tuesday afternoon and then again late Thursday
evening into early Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A surface wind shift will continue progressing southward through the
afternoon hours shifting surface winds to the north at all TAF
sites. Winds will swing around to the southwest late Monday morning
with VFR conditions expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01