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000
FXUS64 KLUB 302320
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
620 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/

SHORT TERM...

Warm and dry conditions are set to continue through tomorrow as
upper level ridging remains parked overhead. Early afternoon
satellite imagery clearly shows an expansive area of dry midlevel
air and large-scale subsidence overspreading much of West Texas east
of the monsoonal moisture plume stretching over the Four Corners
region. Warm downslope flow and deeper mixing will limit convective
potential through this evening, with the closest notable
convective activity expected to remain well to our north and quiet
mild weather expected tonight locally. The upper ridge will flatten
slightly tomorrow as a shortwave trough transits over the central
Rockies, pulling the monsoonal plume slightly southward over
northeastern New Mexico. Further south over West Texas, continuing
subsidence and dry air aloft will limit convective growth to typical
afternoon shallow cumulus, with a very slim chance of an isolated
shower approaching the far southwestern Panhandle. Similar
temperatures to this afternoon are expected tomorrow areawide with
highs about 5 degrees warmer than seasonal averages. /DWK

LONG TERM...

There still exists some hope for rainfall in the long term, although
these chances are tending to focus even closer to the NM border as
the remainder of the CWA resides closer to a subtropical high aloft.
This high will be found atop the region from Friday evening through
Saturday before shifting slowly east come Sunday. On the heels of
this high, upslope convection in sern CO and nern NM Friday night
could send a broad outflow boundary as far south as our NW zones and
net even cooler lows there, but large CIN during this time favors
keeping rain chances next to nil.

As the upper high pulls away on Sunday we expect slightly lower
thicknesses in addition to a slow uptick in dewpoints and PWATs
recovering to around 1/4" above normal. These factors should
secure marginally cooler highs from Sunday through early next
week. Additionally, late day/evening rain chances return Sunday
toward the NM border as a weak upper low (currently near
Monterrey, MX) drifts north around the departing high. The ECMWF
remains more bullish and farther east with this wave by Sunday
afternoon compared to the GFS and GEFS mean, though slight chance
PoPs will be kept generally west of HWY 385 until more guidance
favors otherwise.

Increased anticyclonic flow aloft by July 4th precedes a westward
expansion of the upper high and subsidence. Can`t rule out another
round of late day storms near the NM border along the periphery of
the ridge. NBM`s PoPs were trimmed from Tue-Wed with only low
rain chances bleeding into our NW zones, although the raw GFS and
ECMWF are now both largely dry during this period. Not until
later in the week do we see a window for broader storm chances
arrive in between a Four Corners high and the high still poised
to our east. The subsequent mid-level weakness in between these
two highs could set up over the Caprock and lead to better storm
chances o/a Thursday. Otherwise, rainfall deficits will
undoubtedly deepen over most/all of the region in this pattern,
yet high temps shouldn`t stray too far from seasonal levels.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07