613
FXUS64 KLUB 151718
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Dry and warm conditions expected through tomorrow afternoon.

 - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon, mainly across the
   far SW Panhandle.

 - Triple-digit temperatures possible by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The short term package will be dry and quiet. Upper ridging will
remain stagnant over the region tonight through tomorrow afternoon.
Southerly surface flow will persist for the short term package
drawing in low-level moisture from the Gulf keeping dewpoints in the
60s. However, warmer air aloft should keep the atmosphere capped and
subsidence from the upper ridging will keep storm chances non-zero.
I hope you enjoyed the below normal temperatures as today will be
the last day with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s by
later this afternoon. Height increases from the upper ridging and
southerly surface flow will warm temperatures up to the 90s region
wide for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Storm chances will develop late Wednesday through Thursday morning
mainly across the far SW Panhandle as a LLJ moves across this area.
Much of the daytime hours Thursday will be quiet, however another
LLJ will approach the same area Thursday night and bringing
additional storm chances in combination with a most SSE low-level
flow. Latest models have shifted the associated QPF slightly farther
north and west over New Mexico where the associated shortwave
forcing is a bit more favorable, and thus forecast PoPs have been
curtailed westward to reflect this trend. Otherwise, relatively high
pressure will remain over our area through the weekend, keeping
monsoonal moisture off to the west and Gulf moisture to the east.
The aforementioned upper high will begin to shift eastward early
next week, which could potentially lead to a more active pattern
with more upper waves aloft having influence. Temperatures will
remain seasonal around the mid 90s, but slightly increase by the end
of the weekend and may reach the triple-digits early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF period. Breezy
southerly winds are expected to prevail through the rest of today,
however should weaken some overnight. Breezy wind speeds should
return tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...10