510
FXUS64 KLUB 200858
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
258 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 250 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

 - Cold Weather Advisory in effect for locations on the Caprock 9
   am this Morning

 - Light snow chances return this afternoon and evening with minor
   accumulations possible.

 - Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Advisory in effect tonight.

 - Seasonal temperatures return by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Warm air advection was underway early this morning - just not at the
surface where it was needed most. Regional obs at 2 AM showed
easterly winds of 10-15 mph with temps mostly around 20 under a
pesky layer of altostratus from 700-500 mb. This cloud layer was
keeping temps milder than expected, although clearing is arriving
from the west and this should still allow for temps to fall through
the teens until sunrise while securing wind chills of 0 to 5 below,
so the Cold Weather Advisory will be allowed to ride until 9 AM.

The bigger picture today paints an arctic surface high shy of 1050
mb near Bozeman, MT evolving south to the Texas Panhandle by
midnight and weakening to 1044 mb in the process. As a result, our
southeasterly winds will back slowly northeast through the afternoon
before an arctic FROPA reaches our northern counties by sunset
complete with some light snow. High temps are still favored to be
cooler than the NBM in large part due to an influx of thick clouds
from N-S through the day ahead of a positively-tilted trough axis
descending our way and broader ascent in the RRQ of a 140 kt upper
jet. However, moisture is less than Saturday night`s snow event as
we`ll be fighting rather dry sub-cloud layers. Models do agree in a
window of moistening isentropic lift around 285K this afternoon
arriving from the far southern TX Panhandle that unfortunately
zeroes out by the evening as winds turn parallel along the
isentropic layers, therefore PoPs dwindle quickly from N-S tonight
despite the upper trough arriving by this time. Can`t rule out some
very minor snow accumulations across our northern two rows later
this afternoon and evening along and just behind FROPA as a burst of
Fn ascent arrives.

Last but certainly not least will be the coldest wind chills of the
season arriving tonight on blustery NNE winds and a surge of CAA
marked by 850 mb temps of -14C by dawn Tuesday. Combined with
clearing skies after midnight, lows are favored to end up lower than
the NBM once again with widespread sub-zero wind chills. Opted to
raise winds to the NBM75 which is on par with the breezier MET and
HREF. The coldest wind chills of -10 to -15 are most likely in our
NW zones where an Extreme Cold Warning is valid from 6 PM until noon
on Tuesday, while remaining areas see advisory-level wind chills
anywhere 5 above and 7 below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

The extended forecast looks to be quiet and dry following our
recent snow. The upper level trough that dominated over the CONUS
and was responsible for the extremely cold temperatures this past
weekend will finally move eastward by mid week. However, another
trough develops over central CONUS with an embedded shortwave
forming over the Central Plains by the end of the week. As the
new trough tracks east, models are in agreement with a low
pressure system developing over western portions of CONUS and
tracking south towards Baja California and northern portions of
Mexico. However, models are in disagreement on timing and location
of this low.

Lee side troughing on the surface will keep southwesterly winds
breezy on Tuesday and with mostly sunny skies, highs will "warm"
to the 30s across the region. The warming trend will continue
through the week until highs reach 50s to 60s for Friday and
Saturday. The surface trough will push a FROPA through the region
Wednesday afternoon. However, this front will be weak and have no
effect on temperatures but will bring breezy northerly winds.

Another FROPA is expected on Saturday as a lee side low develops and
swings a front through the region. Highs for Saturday are uncertain
as models are in disagreement on timing of the FROPA. Currently, NBM
shows some cooling for northern portions of the CWA with highs in
the 50s while southern portions show highs in the upper 60s which
seems reasonable at this time. At the moment, models keep this
weekend dry but that could change depending on the location of the
aforementioned upper low that develops off the southwestern coast
by this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

VFR with SE winds backing NE by the afternoon ahead of an arctic
front with occasionally gusty NNE winds this evening. A small
window could open at all the terminals Monday night for light
snow.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ021>024-
027>030-033>036-039>042.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for TXZ021>024-027>029.

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for TXZ025-026-030>044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93