041
FXUS64 KOUN 111751
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

 - Increasing risk for thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and
   localized flooding beginning overnight tonight and continuing
   into the weekend.

 - Some severe weather possible overnight and Saturday with the
   primary threat of wind.

 - Another hot and humid day today with less-hot conditions
   expected this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Scattered showers have pushed into northwestern Oklahoma, but it
is running into an area of lower instability and we have seen the
weakening trend. Still there is some potential for a few showers
to persist this morning, but most showers will likely be gone by
sunrise.

A mid-level trough approaches the area from the northwest this
afternoon and thunderstorm development is likely across northern
Oklahoma with diurnal destabilization. These storms may linger
into the evening hours, although the main signal for a storm
complex will be to our west across the panhandles moving south.
But as a front moves into the area and another shortwave (or MCV)
moves toward the area, another wave of showers and thunderstorms
will develop across the area after midnight and spread across the
area.

Although the NBM POPs do a good job at handling the increasing
storm chances after midnight, they look inadequate for the diurnal
convection and have raised or expanded POPs between 21Z and 03Z
today/tonight from the NBM initialization.

Instability of 1000-2000 J/kg will be enough for some strong and
possibly isolated severe storms this afternoon and evening in
northern Oklahoma with strong thunderstorm winds being the most
likely threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The mid-level trough that helps develop the storms tonight moves
over the area, cuts off and just wanders over the area through the
weekend. Meanwhile a surface front pushed into Oklahoma from the
north on Saturday. With the mid-level area of low pressure
stalled, this will keep the chance of showers and storms across
the area. Precipitable water values are forecast to be in the 1.7
to 2.2 inch range by Saturday afternoon, very high values
relatively to climatology. With this, storms will likely be very
efficient rainfall producers leading to locally heavy rainfall.
Precipitation will likely be at least one-half inch across much of
the area, but some areas could receive 3 to 4 inches Saturday
through Saturday night. The most concentrated area of locally
heavy rain is expected to be near the surface front, but it is too
early to know specifically where that will be located. A Flood
Watch will be likely with a future forecast package.

The highest precipitation chances are currently expected to shift
south toward southern Oklahoma and north Texas on Sunday, but
this will depend on (a) where the surface boundary and/or any
convective outflow boundaries are located, and (b) where the
primary mid-level circulation center and/or any MCVs are located,
so the placement of higher POPs could shift.

With increased cloud cover, higher precipitation chances and the
surface front, temperatures are not expected to be as hot this
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Models are currently expecting this cut-off mid-level cyclone over
the area to start slowly drifting northeast on Monday. On Monday
it is still in close enough proximity to keep some storm chances,
but these chances are advertised to decrease as we get into
Tuesday. But it is hard to have strong confidence in this with
the lack of mid-level flow or anything specific to nudge the low
away from the area, so we will be watching the trends with this
over the following forecast cycles. After that, the models
disagree on the timing and placements over any waves that would
affect the area. The best chance of any precipitation will be in
the north with any waves moving across the Plains that reach far
enough south to help produce precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Our terminals will most likely remain in the VFR category through
the forecast period. Isolated high-based TSRA are possible
through 00Z although probabilities are too low at any one terminal
in the TAF. However after 00Z, probabilities increase 30% for
TSRA across northwest Oklahoma and increasing to the south and
east in time by 06-12Z. By 14Z TSRA probabilities are greater than
50% as TEMPOS are in place across some of our terminals. Although
much of this convection early on will be high-based in a VFR
category, the convection may become more surface-based by 15Z with
some of our terminals reducing to MVFR category due to lower
ceilings and reduced visibilities in rain. High pressure over the
southeastern U.S. will maintain southerly surface winds at 10
gusting to 20 kts across our terminals. A surface front will be
pushing into northwest Oklahoma by 12Z shifting surface winds more
northerly behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  73  85  69 /  20  20  70  50
Hobart OK         97  72  88  67 /  20  30  70  60
Wichita Falls TX  95  74  89  70 /  10  10  70  60
Gage OK           95  67  82  64 /  30  50  70  30
Ponca City OK     94  70  85  69 /  20  40  60  40
Durant OK         95  75  92  73 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...68