Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 132101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
401 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Fire weather potential remains the main forecast concern over the
next several days as a dry weather pattern with stronger than
average surface winds evolves.

The biggest change to the previous forecast was to issue a Fire
Weather Watch for Wednesday across parts of western Oklahoma,
northwest of a Hollis to Cordell to Cherokee line. Also, added
slight chance for thunderstorms across much of Oklahoma
Thursday night.

Through tonight, quiet weather conditions can be expected.
Latest 3.9 um GOES-16 satellite imagery at 352 pm depicted
numerous small controlled burns across the eastern half of
Oklahoma. Light radar echoes from mid level cloud cover over far
western Oklahoma near and west of Elk City were not reaching the
ground, and should continue not to reach the ground due to dry low
levels. Light surface winds and mostly clear skies should allow
for excellent radiational cooling tonight; thus, went with the
colder side of model guidance lows. Some light frost will occur
across the area once again late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday, breezy to windy, dry, and warmer weather will occur.
Some wind gusts in parts of northwestern Oklahoma may be near
40 mph during the afternoon hours. Preferred the warmer side of
guidance highs due to abundant sunshine, which should generally be
5-15F warmer than today.

Thursday, another breezy to windy and even warmer day can
be expected. Some gusts may be near 40 mph during the afternoon
hours somewhere across Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Increased highs a few degrees thinking temperatures will warm
up rather well with a good amount of sunshine.

Thursday night, added low chances (around 20%) for the possibility
of high based showers and thunderstorms everywhere north of the
Red River as there may be enough moisture and lift from a
mid/upper low moving across the central Plains to generate spotty
rain. Latest models have been hinting at spotty light QPF across
Oklahoma during this time frame. Deep moisture will be lacking,
however the air will be unstable with MUCAPE up to 800 J/kg and
steep mid level lapse rates which could support isolated elevated
storms from sufficient mid level moisture. If storms occur, don`t
think they would be severe due to the limited instability, however
gusty winds up to 50 mph could be possible due high cloud bases
and some dry air below cloud bases.

Friday, warm, very dry, and breezy to windy conditions will
likely occur. The latest 12 UTC ECMWF/GFS model runs were strongest
with low level winds which hinted that surface gusts during the
afternoon hours may be in 40 to 55 mph range with the highest
gusts near the Kansas and Oklahoma state line. These model
solutions were preferred. Highs should be well above average,
into the 70s and perhaps 80s across southern Oklahoma and
north Texas.

Saturday and Sunday, the forecast remains uncertain, but generally
trended with a drier solution. Surface winds on Sunday may be
quite strong again. Kept 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms
mainly southeast of I-44 during this time frame, though not
confident at all any rainfall will occur as the highest
moisture and instability may stay over northeast Texas and
points southeast.

Monday and Tuesday, dry weather is forecast. Surface winds on
Monday may be rather strong once again. Cooler air may return
on Tuesday.



Critical fire weather concerns will likely return again to parts
of western Oklahoma on Wednesday. Have high confidence that 20 ft
winds will go above 20 mph in the Fire Weather Watch area, though
surface humidity values may stay just above 20%. Regardless, ERC
values are near the 90th percentile in northwestern Oklahoma due
to the lack of rainfall and ongoing drought conditions. This will
support very high wildfire danger.

Near-Critical fire weather conditions may occur again on Thursday
over the western half of Oklahoma and north Texas due to breezy
to windy conditions, though surface humidity values will likely
be higher compared to Wednesday.

Critical to extreme fire weather conditions are likely on Friday
due to warm, very dry, and windy weather. The strongest winds may
occur during the afternoon hours across northern Oklahoma, though
the lowest humidity values may occur across southwestern Oklahoma
and western north Texas. Fire Weather Watches/Red Flag Warnings
will likely be necessary across parts of Oklahoma and north Texas
Friday afternoon.

Wildfire concerns will likely increase again Sunday and Monday due
to increasing winds, especially over western Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

Overall, believe most model blends may be underestimating surface
winds over the next seven days. Thus, accounted for this bias.



Oklahoma City OK  30  67  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         32  67  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  34  68  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           32  70  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     23  68  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         33  67  44  73 /   0   0   0   0


OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004>006-009>011-014>016-021-022.



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