Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241131
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
631 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

.AVIATION...
Stratus has been within miles of KLBB and KPVW for a couple hours
now, but indications are that it has gone as far west as its going
to. Could see some light fog develop briefly at KPVW, but
otherwise these two terminals should remain VFR. At KCDS stratus
is holding firm in MVFR category. Expect this ceiling to lift by
mid-morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...

The main weather feature this week is a trough stretching across
the US. Upper level flow will be zonal today and tonight over the
South Plains and southwest surface winds will help temperatures
warm a few more degrees to the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
Timing has become more consistent with the main stream of the
trough moving across the northern plains on Tuesday and sending a
cold front through the Panhandle during the day on Tuesday. With
the front moving through in the late afternoon, temperatures will
rise to the upper 90s in the Rolling Plains Tuesday afternoon.
While the frontal passage will be dry, guidance continues to show
post frontal precip Tuesday night into Wednesday. The southern
stream of the trough will move across on Wednesday providing some
enhanced lift. The NAM is especially bullish with precip in the
far southern Texas Panhandle. Bumped PoPs slightly down from model
blend, but did increase from previous forecast to 50-60% for
Tuesday night and 60-70% for Wednesday. The axis of the southern
part of the trough moves across Wednesday night bringing a quick
end to the precip.

Upper level ridging will be established over the southeast US this
weekend. There is a slight chance for precip late in the weekend as
moisture moves around the western edge of the ridge. Lee surface
troughing will develop sending a cold front through the Panhandle
early in the week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/07


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