Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 202313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
613 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours with breezy winds
overnight and low-level windshear.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019/

Another very warm day is on track for Sunday before a period of more
active weather beginning on Monday.

A short wave will move over the Texas panhandle on Sunday afternoon.
This will continue to bring breezy downsloping winds with surface
lee cyclogenesis from southeastern Colorado through southwestern
Kansas. Temperatures will rise even more than today with
afternoon temperatures topping out in the 90s for the Rolling
Plains and portions of the South Plains.

A change in the weather will come from Monday through Wednesday next
week. This change will stem from a slow moving upper low in the
southwestern US. The system is currently moving onshore as a trough
in the Pacific Northwest. It will close off as it moves into the
intermountain west. Winds aloft will begin to back early Monday as
an upper level jet strengthens to our southwest. Models are in fair
agreement bringing a short wave across the area on Monday
afternoon/evening ahead of the parent low. Models also slow the
front down stalling around the southern Texas Panhandle on Monday
ahead of this short wave. Overall, the next few days are a fair
representation of the Maddox synoptic heavy rain setup with a short
wave aloft and a quasi-stationary front parallel to upper level
flow. We will see a rapid increase in precipitable water values on
Monday ahead of the arrival of the first short wave. During the day
on Monday, models generate a healthy amount of mixed layer CAPE
south of the frontal boundary where surface heating would be
plentiful along with a good influx of low level moisture. Progged
instability values are on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will
lead to the potential for some severe storms from Monday afternoon
through the evening hours.

The front will punch farther to the south on Tuesday leaving much of
the forecast area in cooler air north of the front. However,
strengthening lift late Tuesday will continue to promote high
precipitation chances. Precipitation chances may ultimately
depend on the location of the surface front as it meanders to the
south on Tuesday. The slow moving upper low will eventually move
overhead on Wednesday ending precipitation by early Thursday.
Upper level ridging for the rest of the week will lead to surface
warming and drying.




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