Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1228 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2020

VFR will prevail through the forecast period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020/

Our quiet but warming weather will continue in the short term. Upper
level pattern continues to be dominated by an area of ridging from
southern California up into the Northern Plains. This ridge axis
will shift further south tonight/tomorrow as a shortwave advances
across Alberta and Saskatchewan which will help flatten the ridge.
This will keep our area under northerly to northeasterly flow aloft
which will keep our area dry. Tonight, temperatures will be a bit
warmer than previous nights due to the warmer temperatures aloft and
light westerly winds but will still bottom out in the upper 50`s to
low 60`s. With drier surface air in place and slightly warmer
temperatures no fog or low clouds will develop leading to a clear
night and morning. Tomorrow, 1000-500mb thicknesses will continue to
increase however slightly stronger southwesterly (downsloping) winds
will also be in place. These two factors will help boost
temperatures by 5-10 degrees compared to today leading to afternoon
temperatures Friday in the mid to upper 90`s. /WCI

Some substantial changes in this morning`s data in the synoptic
scale pattern which looks to accelerate what was Tuesday`s front
into Sunday.  By Friday evening, little change in the overall pattern
is expected with a high across the SWRN CONUS, a weakness across SE
TX, and more high pressure out toward Florida.  The H5 height field
gradient is quite sharp across the northern half of the CONUS.  By
Saturday evening, two disturbances will phase and dig the jet to
our east centered along a N/S line around 97W by Monday morning.
An additional surge of jet energy is expected on Tuesday with
NWRLY flow aloft prevailing for the remainder of the extended.

Seasonally hot conditions are expected on Saturday with dry
southwesterly winds making the area ripe for high diurnal T
spread. It`s quite possible that a few locations may top 100
degrees. A dryline/sfc trough should push to near the I27
corridor by late afternoon. Fortunately, in terms of fire
weather, the winds look to be fairly mild though not completely
benign with speeds in the upper teens. With the change in the
large scale pattern, the front is now expected on Sunday morning
followed by gusty winds in the wake of a second surge of cooler
air on Monday morning. This should scour near-sfc moisture all
the way into the Gulf by Tuesday. Another back-door surge then
makes its way into the area Wednesday night. Precipitation chances
look pretty scant over the next week though next week`s
temperatures should be much closer to seasonal norms.




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