Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 221126
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
626 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity early this morning will likely stay to the
north of the KCDS terminal but will bring more variable winds from
an outflow boundary. A slight chance of storms will exist at KPVW
and KLBB this afternoon and at KCDS overnight but chances are too
low to mention in the TAF at the moment. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail with prevailing gusty southerly winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
This mornings thunderstorm complex steering southeast through the
Texas Panhandle is a little further north than the past two
mornings, but an outflow boundary was being shoved south of
current activity and will give at least a small chance for thunder
near daybreak in the extreme southeast Panhandle and northern
Rolling Plains. Strong wind gusts the main risk.

Otherwise, upper level high pressure and warmer temperatures will
bulge across the area today behind this mornings convectively
enhanced wave, and a better defined upper impulse crossing the
northern Great Basin and central Rockies phasing with the next
closed low moving into eastern Montana. The southern part of this
phased wave system will edge across our area this evening,
tightening the surface pressure gradient from eastern New Mexico
into the western Panhandle and South Plains, and give some
opportunity for dryline enhancement and thunder consideration over
our western and northern areas later this afternoon into the
evening. The building heights aloft today will make breaking the
cap a little more difficult until arrival of the wave, and still
uncertainty if the cap can be broken, but we will hold on to low
thunder chances this area. Hot temperatures approaching 100
degrees will also give some chance to break the cap.

A cool front will surge southward behind this wave late tonight
and early Saturday, crossing nearly all of our area before
potentially stalling in the southern Rolling Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, where we have retained low thunder chances
during the day. Expect improved thunder chances Saturday night as
low level southerly flow improves and fairly high CAPE levels
persist in the southern Rolling Plains. We have not added a
severe threat yet for this area, but will take a closer look at
initiation potential within our forecast area. Temperatures
Saturday should be a notch or two lower behind the front.

By Sunday, stronger southwest flow aloft in advance of an even
stronger closed low rotating over the northern Rockies will
develop to our northwest and drive hotter temperatures back into
the region - so return to 100 degree temperatures many areas
appears likely. This upper low looks to settle across the central
High Plains Sunday night and Monday with lowered heights our area
and another minor drop in temperatures. Fairly high uncertainty
if the weakness aloft will allow a significant mid level moisture
flow into area, but some solutions support thunder chances Monday
afternoon. Beyond - the upper low is expected to pull out Tuesday
with rebuilding upper heights and renewed warming mid to late
week. More uncertainty, however, regarding an upper level trough
expected to approach the west Coast late next week, and thus
potential for monsoon moisture to pull northward through the
Rockies. Conceptually at least, would expect moisture to favor
lifting northward mainly through the southern Rockies but too
early and too much solution spread to have confidence. RMcQueen

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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