Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 211717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1117 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019

VFR next 24 hours. Breezy conditions will prevail with low level
wind shear anticipated this evening at all terminals. Cold front
should push through before lunch time on Tuesday ahead of what
most models suggest.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CST Mon Jan 21 2019/

Today looks to be the most eventful day out of the next seven or so
in regards to the weather. A deep upper level trough will be moving
across the Rockies today which will deepen southwest flow aloft.
This will result in strong lee surface cyclogenesis in eastern
Colorado and surface lee troughing. Both of which will increase our
surface winds this afternoon. Wind maximums aloft associated with
this trough will not pass overhead until Tuesday morning keeping
winds lower than their full potential. Winds at 700mb this morning
will be around 30-35 kt increasing to 45-50 kt by this evening.
However, we will not quite mix that deep to 700mb. These strong
downsloping winds will also push maximum temperatures between 20 and
25 degrees above seasonal averages. This will all be followed by a
cold front Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the week into the weekend will see northwest flow
aloft. This will keep PoPs low with a series of cold fronts allowing
temperatures to remain near seasonal averages all week. Each day
will likely alternate between a cold front and surface lee troughing
with additional cold fronts on Thursday, Saturday, and Monday.

Elevated fire weather conditions will spread over much of the
caprock and extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph with afternoon relative
humidity values between 10 and 15 percent. However, forecast ERC
values are mostly below the 50th percentile so an RFD statement will
be issued for today.




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