Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121723
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1123 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings should slowly become VFR this afternoon. There is a
risk that we could see some MVFR ceilings return around sunset
though confidence is too low to mention in TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1027 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

UPDATE...
After a number of updates this morning, have pulled all
highlights given the trends noted in diminishing RADAR echoes.
Have maintained mention of flurries and sprinkles out east given
that it often doesn`t take much to either of these two phenomena
to manifest themselves in these conditions.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 542 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

AVIATION...
The KCDS Metar lost the majority of reported elements around 1111Z
this morning. Feel we have enough data to issue a valid forecast,
but not confident in updates. So, have appended "AMD NOT SKED" to
the KCDS TAF for now.

Upper level trough will be transitioning west to east across the
area today and tonight. A significant lead wave was moving east
taking deep lift and a portion of deep layered moisture along with
it. RADAR already showing decreasing snowfall. But, some areas of
light snow remain, especially towards KPVW and KCDS so have
retained some of the previous forecasts through 15Z before
tapering chances after. At KLBB, made more notable improvements
with only a TEMPO light snow group this morning.

The sharp upper level trough will still not pass completely until
this evening, so we may continue with patchy light snow and
considerable low and mid cloud cover until this occurs. Therefore
kept ceilings mostly in MVFR range through the day before fairly
abrupt clearing early this evening. Winds also likely to increase
another notch by mid morning and remain fairly strong through the
day before also tapering quite a bit early in the evening. Did not
indicate snow in the TAFs for this afternoon as models suggest
coverage will be fairly sparse by then. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The core of the upper level storm system was still parked near the
New Mexico/Colorado border early this morning.

A significant amount of mid level drying was observed on water
vapor and appeared to be reflected in the radar reflectivity. The
strongest upper level jet winds will depart today and large scale
subsidence will move in later this morning. An area of
frontogenesis around 750-700mb will continue to slide across the
area early this morning. Although conditions will remain cloudy
today, isentropic downglide will spread in later this morning
further preventing any more precipitation. Shallow saturation over
the southern Rolling Plains later this morning will bring more
mixed precipitation towards the end of the event. A significant
dry intrusion will work its way into the Permian Basin and affect
portions of the southern Rolling Plains. This may lead to more
freezing drizzle than snow before ending this afternoon. A cold
Tuesday morning will manifest itself with a 1040mb surface ridge
over the region. We will then see north to northwesterly flow
until this weekend when upper flow turns more zonal. The next
noteworthy front looks to be around Saturday dropping temperatures
late in the weekend from a healthy warmup towards the end of this
week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/26


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