Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 110818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
318 AM CDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Zonal westerly flow pattern aloft will persist over the CWA today
and tonight. At the surface a lee-side low will develop in eastern
NM this afternoon. This will force the dryline eastward across the
CWA and tap into a very dry airmass that will eventually encompass
the entire Caprock by late afternoon and force humidity values into
the single digits. Sunny skies and dry downslope breezes will result
in high temperatures in the 80s and 90s. The dry airmass combined
with the breezy conditions and warm afternoon temperatures will
elevate fire danger across the entire Caprock warranting an RFD. The
warmest day of the week won`t last long however. A closed upper
level low over the Dakotas will send a cold front through the region
late tonight. Guidance continues to show pressure rises of 8-10 mb/3
hr behind the front which will support windy conditions, potentially
to advisory levels, late tonight into tomorrow morning.

A prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather will dominate the
extended forecast this package.

The initial cool down will be provided by tonight`s strong late-
night front. Gusty northeasterly winds will continue through Monday
morning before weakening and veering more easterly during the
afternoon. Plenty of high clouds will also stream over the region on
Monday, and in combination with the cold air advection, temperatures
won`t rise above the lower to middle 60s for most spots. Surface
ridging will continue to spill into the center of the nation through
the coming week and this will keep relatively cool and increasingly
moist upslope flow in place locally.

Aloft, quasi-zonal flow on Monday will gradually acquire some
southerly component as energy dropping southward cuts off into an
upper low over the western states. This upper low is then expected
to drop anchor over the Great Basin and Intermountain West through
much of the remainder of the week. Eventually the western low is
progged to open and split into several pieces of energy late week
when another storm system drops southward out of south-central
Canada. South of this complex interaction, southwesterly to westerly
flow will carry the occasional weak disturbance over the region,
spurring weak lift and periodic rain chances. Initially, relatively
dry low-levels may temper rain chances/coverage on Tuesday. Given
this, we have tempered back PoPs from the NBM, more in line with the
MOS guidance. Thereafter, low level moisture will improve Tuesday
night or early Wednesday. However, it does appear we will be
contending with a fair amount of dry air in the mid-levels through
much of the remainder of the week, which could cut into rain
chances/coverage/amounts. Even so, the pattern will support periodic
rain chances, and we have PoPs mostly in the slight chance to chance
category. The medium range guidance does also indicate weak elevated
instability at times, so we have also maintained a minimal thunder
mention through much of the period. Unfortunately, the NWP
continues to back off on rain totals, now showing generally less
than an inch over most/all of the CWA (and under a half inch for
much of the area, except maybe more eastern zones) from Tuesday
through Saturday.

Thick clouds and areas of rain (hopefully!) will keep temperatures
well below average. Currently it looks like Wednesday will be the
coolest day, with highs only in the lower to middle 50s.
Temperatures should gradually moderate through late week before
another front moves through Friday or Friday night. Additional upper
level energy will remain to our west, so at least low PoPs remain
into the forecast into next weekend. Regardless, temperatures will
reside well below average into next weekend.


Warm daytime high temperatures, breezy northwesterly winds and a
very dry airmass will create elevated Fire Weather conditions
across the Caprock this afternoon. Despite the very low RHs,
wind speeds will be the limiting factor from more critical fire
weather today. The lower wind speeds in combination with greener
grasses and Max RFTI values of 1 and 2 will still warrant a
Rangeland Danger Fire Statement.




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