068
FXUS63 KMPX 270617
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
117 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected tomorrow
  with a few stronger storms possible across far southern
  Minnesota.

- Things will remain fairly quiet with seasonable temperatures
  with the next chance for widespread rain arriving late in the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Given trends with the HRRR and RAP, have increased PoPs quite a
bit for tonight through Memorial Day for MN in particular.
Scattered showers across the Dakotas will continue east through
the night, reaching the Twin Cities mid-late morning where they
should start to fizzle out. In the afternoon, 500-1000 j/kg of
mlCAPE will be enough to support scattered convection, again
with the greatest coverage over MN. A strong wind gust or two
could be possible, but severe risk looks better down in Iowa,
where the h7 and h5 wind speed maximums will be.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today`s rain has largely failed to materialized across the MPX CWA,
with only a couple hundredths of rain recorded through early this
afternoon, mainly over far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
A surface low centered over extreme northeast Iowa and its
associated cloud shield have led to a decent temperature spread with
upper 50s and low 60s under the cloud cover to low to mid 70s in
western Minnesota. Looking at satellite, a boundary is evident across
west central Minnesota up through the Arrowhead. A couple of
isolated showers may develop along this boundary through late this
afternoon, but the remaining rain chances area wide through this
evening are low. However, PoPs will ramp back up overnight with an
approaching shortwave through the day tomorrow. Some embedded
thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon
with the highest chance across southern Minnesota. Severe chances
are slim, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible with any
stronger storms. QPF totals will range from around a quarter to a
half inch through Monday evening.

Heading into Tuesday, a second shortwave will once again bring
shower chances to eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rainfall
amounts with this round will be very light before we dry out for mid
week. Temperatures will be on the cooler side Tuesday (low to mid
60s) and gradually warm into the mid to upper 70s for the remainder
of the period as a ridge builds in. The next chance for rain will
arrive Thursday afternoon with continued low PoPs into at least the
first half of the weekend. Minnesota and Wisconsin will end up on
the western periphery of the ridge Thursday through Saturday with
embedded shortwaves responsible for these continued chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR to start for all sites. Mid-level ceilings are gradually
approaching from the Dakotas and will move across all TAF sites
by late this morning, sooner obviously over western MN. The
arrival of a clipper-type low will produce fairly widespread
rain later this morning then more scattered activity into the
afternoon hours. It is with this latter activity that CB/TS
looks to be more prevalent as the system takes advantage of weak
instability in peak heating. Thus, have opted to convert the
recently-added PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups as confidence is a
bit higher for this set to have CB/TS realized. Conditions will
improve late afternoon into the evening as the system exits,
including the lack of ceilings this evening into tonight. Winds
will be fairly variable at around 5 kts then eventually become
NE and breezy as the low pressure circulation moves across the
east of the TAF sites.

KMSP...Rain showers look to move into MSP late this morning,
though there is a small chance of seeing spotty showers between
12z-15z, earlier than currently advertised. Best chances for
CB/TS come early-mid this afternoon with the potential for MVFR
conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts becoming SE.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance -RA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...JPC