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000
FXUS63 KMPX 070600 AAC
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH WITH THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT AS WITH THE 18Z RUN. 21Z HOPWRF ALSO FAVORS
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWARD AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR FZRA/IP/SN...SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY TYPE OF ADVISORY FOR NOW. IF IT DOES
MATERIALIZE...AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT.

DID EXTEND THE ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN FOR CONTINUED VERY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND DRIFTING OVER ROADWAYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLIER DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ACCIDENTS AND
DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY WILL GO UNTIL 9 PM
WHEN WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME.

18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZED FREEZING
RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 0.37
INCH AND NAM/RAP/GFS SHOWS THIS VALUE INCREASING TO BETWEEN
0.6-0.7 INCH LATE TONIGHT...SO PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY NEED TO
HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THERE PENDING SOME EARLY RETURNS OF
THE 00Z MODELS AND THE 21Z HOPWRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH OF MPX CWA...WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS RELATED TO
POPS/WX.

MODELS CONTINUE A VERY DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION/PTYPE FIELD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING TONIGHT...AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI. THE ONLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPS
WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD THRU THE NIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
DEGREES...AND JUST ABV FREEZING IN WC/SW MN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPS HOLD BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RICH AS PER FOG/LOW CLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH USUALLY FOG/LOW CLDS
DON/T NECESSARILY DEVELOP DRIZZLE...YOU NEED SOME TYPE OF LIFT
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT IS ABV THE
SATURATED LAYER BLW 3K. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON AMTS. CURRENT...MINIMAL QPF AMTS ARE NOTED IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IT COULD CHG BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH AND WAA.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CUTTING OFF
ANY CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A CHAOTIC ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE
CONDITIONS AND THUS HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF HOW IT WILL EVOLVE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RWF...MSP...AND EAU HAVE VFR CIGS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME WITH MVFR CIGS AT RNH/STC AND IFR AT AXN. THINK THE
LARGE AREA OF VFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD FILL IN AND
LOWER LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE ALREADY SEEN EVIDENCE OF THIS OVER
WESTERN WISCONSIN VERY RECENTLY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
AROUND DAWN...POSSIBLY BRINGING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF -FZDZ OR -FZRA. AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...CIGS WILL HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE
UNTIL DRIER AIR ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KMSP...VFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS LATE
TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF
-FZDZ COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. VFR
WILL RETURN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF