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000
FXUS63 KMPX 262022
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN THUNDER THREAT TONIGHT AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY.

WESTERLY WINDS MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS...MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN NOW.  SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST
MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AR 19Z. SOME HEAVIER CUMULUS INDICATED AND
WEAK RADAR RETURNS NORTH OF KAXN. STILL COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 00Z SUN. WILL CARRY SOME LOW
POPS WITH THIS FEATURE EAST INTO WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. COLD POOL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL....MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE REGION. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD STARTING SUN NIGHT AS A CUTOFF
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS OFF TO THE E ALONG WITH ITS SFC
LOW PRES CENTER REFLECTION. THIS WILL DRAG ANY PRECIPITATION OFF
TO THE E...STARTING A PROLONGED DRIER AND COOLER LONGER RANGE
PERIOD. MODIFIED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION STARTING MONDAY AND LAST THRU WEDNESDAY...PROMOTING MOSTLY
CLEAR AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. 12Z GFS DOES
ATTEMPT TO SPIT OUT A HUNDREDTH HERE AND THERE...BUT WITH
VIRTUALLY NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SFC HIGH PRES ENTRENCHED OVER
THE AREA...AM DISCOUNTING THIS. IN FACT...THE ONLY PERIOD HAVING
MENTION OF PRECIP IS THU DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DISTURBANCE ALOFT FORMS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DRIFTS
SWD...ALLOWING ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER NW WI AND DRIFT
TO THE S INTO ERN AND SRN MN INTO WRN WI. SFC HIGH PRES LOOKS TO
REASSERT ITSELF FOR FRI AND SAT WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...AGAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL DRYING OUT TIME AND
TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER.
THEN LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND
INCREASE/BECOME GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER
LOW DROPS MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE
MORNING. S-SW WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND
GUSTY DURING THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE