Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KMPX 051758
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH
WINDS AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW
THROUGH ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH
RATHER LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH. THIS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE
FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
WEST AND CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE
FAR WEST. STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY BECOME S THRU THIS EVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS BEFORE
SHIFTING TO W LATE TMRW MRNG THRU TMRW AFTN...ALL WITH SPEEDS ARND
10 KT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W WITH A WEAK UPR LVL
DISTURBANCE THIS EVE...THEN DROPPING TO MID-UPR LVL DECKS
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SCATTERING OUT DURG THE DAY FRI. NO PRECIP.

KMSP...VFR WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS XPCTD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH SLGT CHC -RASN.
WINDS W 10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.