Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 011011
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The main short term concern is snow moving through this morning
and chance of snow developing over central MN this afternoon.
Finally...timing of next chance of snow moving in from the west
late tonight.

Various short term models continue to indicate enhancement of the
snow across eastern and southern MN into west central Wi this
morning. Latest radar trends showing some higher dbz returns in a
narrow band from near Siren...Maple Grove and Glencoe at 09z This
trend is forecast to continue across east central MN from now until
about 15z. Forcing/lift is maximized in the dendritic layer over the
metro area right around 12z. We should be able to pick up around an
inch accumulation if model trends continue. Otherwise...this area
shifts east this morning...with heavier snow possible towards Eau
Claire along I90. Timing of the heaviest accumulation there from 13z-
16z. Could see a quick 2-3 inches in the Eau Claire area through
noon.

Focus turns to the main upper trough which is moving through the
eastern Dakotas.  This feature moves into central MN this
afternoon...and we may see some snow showers/light snow develop
along the trough axis as it moves east.  Timed it into eastern MN
mainly after 21z.  Will continue lower chance pops for this for now.

Finally...the clipper type system continues on schedule for late
tonight into western MN. Moisture will be lacking but still could
produce a band of light snow spreading over the southwest cwa
mainly 06z-12z Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 411 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The snow shower threat will persist with the clipper system early
Thursday, mainly from west central to south central MN. Expecting
less than an inch where the band of snow does form. As the short
term section mentioned, moisture is lacking, but there is a fairly
deep saturated DGZ with some lift through that layer. Temperatures
Thursday and Friday will be chilly by February 2017 standards, but
really will be near normal.

The long wave trough will lift out for the weekend with a ridge
building eastward into the Great Lakes. Southeast surface flow
will become southwest by Sunday with 925 mb temps off the ECMWF
rising to +13C by late afternoon. GFS is a bit delayed into Sunday
evening bringing that degree of warm air aloft in. Raised
temperatures more into the mid 50s to lower 60s with the degree of
sun expected. A fair number of GEFS members are even warmer in the
low to mid 60s.

A trough over the Rockies will spawn the next system over eastern
Montana Sunday night which will track north of Minnesota Monday.
Quite a bit of uncertainty is associated with timing the frontal
passage Monday, but if it`s delayed to Monday night, Monday could
be the warmest day of the year yet. Rich Theta-E air will lift
north ahead of the front with several hundred joules of CAPE,
therefore added some thunder for Monday.

Cooler air follows for midweek, but temps should still remain
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Main concern overnight is whether or not snow will develop from
south central MN through the Twin Cities and on across west
central WI. Short term guidance from this afternoon and evening
have not done well with the snow that occurred in central MN
during the late afternoon and for the snow that should be
occurring now across west central MN. However, overnight there
will be a mid/upper level trough move east from SD while an
inverted surface trough strengthens from southern WI on northwest
across MN. Hence, still feel that snow, with low MVFR/IFR
ceilings and visibilities will develop after 08z from KRWF through
the Twin Cities and on across KRNH and KEAU. This band should
slowly pivot ESE through the mid morning. This would bring the
worst conditions and most snow accumulation to KEAU. MVFR ceilings
will slowly rise to BKN VFR during the late afternoon and early
evening. NE winds near 10 knots overnight becoming NW 12g18kts on
Wednesday.

KMSP...Best snow chances overnight are in the 10z-13z time frame.
This could result in 1.5 inches of snow. The snow ends after 14z
with increasing NW winds and ceilings rising from 015 to 025.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...Chc MVFR/-SN. Winds NW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds S 5-15 kts.
SAT...VFR. Winds SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...RAH


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