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000
FXUS63 KMPX 082327 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
527 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN MN HAS BEEN SLOWLY ERODING
ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN AS OF 2 PM. EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR. INITIALLY WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE SW/W THIS
EVENING ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY. AFT MIDNIGHT...SW/SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO RISE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WC/SW MN. WAS CONCERN ABOUT FOG/LOW CLDS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF INCREASING SW/SSW WINDS AND DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE 20S/30S. BUT...EVEN IF SOME LOW CLDS DEVELOP...
MOISTURE ABV THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DRY SIGNIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. SO...ANY CLDS IN THE MORNING WILL
QUICKLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE
HIGHEST TEMPS THIS YEAR AS THE MERCURY RISES INTO THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE SNOW COVER IS
MINOR...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

RATHER QUIET AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...RESULTING IN GREAT DEGREE OF SNOWPACK LOSS. VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ULTIMATELY PORTRAYS THE EXIT OF THE PERPETUAL
TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM...GIVING MUCH HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS ACRS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE NET GAIN WILL BE NOTICEABLE WARMING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK...AT POINTS EVEN RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE ONE 12-18 HR PERIOD...MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WHERE
PRECIP LOOKS LIKELY...ESP FOR FAR SRN MN...BUT OTHERWISE THE
UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY.

WITH THE WMFNT E OF THE REGION BY SUN NIGHT...THE MILD TEMPS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WEAK SYSTEM DUE TO PUSH THRU MON
NIGHT INTO TUE MRNG. CLOUDS INCRS DURG THE DAY ON MON...THEN
PRECIP MOVES INTO SWRN MN LATE MON NIGHT AND SPREADS EWD ON TUE.
THE MAIN COMPLICATION IS HOW FAR N THE PRECIP COMES...WITH A
SECONDARY ISSUE OF HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS OVER FAR SRN MN...AN ISSUE
ALREADY SEEN WITH THIS PAST TUE. QPF RISES TO THE 0.20-0.30 AREA
AND THERE WILL BE A MIX OF BOTH -RA AND -SN WITH THIS SYSTEM...
WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE START AND THE FINISH...AND MAINLY SNOW
AROUND DAYBREAK TUE MRNG. IN ADDITION...SNOW RATIOS MAY WELL BE AS
HIGH AS 14:1 OR AS LOW AS 8:1...AND THAT WOULD MAKE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENT IN SNOWFALL. ATTM...AM LOOKING FOR ARND 2
INCHES NEAR THE IOWA BORDER BUT LOCALIZED FORCING COULD EASILY
PUSH THAT MUCH HIGHER. CAN DEFINITIVELY SAY THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL FALL OVER IA...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF
A SHIFT NWD TO BRING ADVY-TYPE SNOWFALL OVER SRN MN SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE SE
LATER TUE...HIGH PRES WITH INCOMING RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL TUE
NIGHT THRU THU. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS THRU THE
REGION FRI BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS DEVOID OF ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
INCLUDE PRECIP ATTM SO HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD DRY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A DISCERNIBLE BREAK FROM THE COLD WINTER
TEMPS WILL BE UPON THE REGION AS HIGHS EVERY DAY WILL BE AT LEAST
IN THE MID 30S...AND WHEN DISCOUNTING THE MODEST POST-FRONTAL CAA
FOR TUE INTO WED...HIGHS WILL COMMONLY BE IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY
AROUND 50 IN SWRN MN. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SNOW LOSS ACRS
THE REGION. LOCAL TOOLS STILL ADVERTISE 5-8 INCHES BEING LOST OVER
THE COST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THANKFULLY THE AREA WILL NOT BE
RECEIVING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TO COMPLETELY EXACERBATE
FLOODING CONCERNS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS WILL BE GROWING
WITH THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN AOA
FL100 THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND
VEER BACK SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20+ KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FROM GENERAL DISCUSSION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KTS BCMG NW.
TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE. NW WIND 5-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF