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000
FXUS63 KMPX 261730
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH GFS26.00 500MB HEIGHTS AND
WINDS SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. THIS LED TO QUICK
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SHORTWAVE WAS ABLE
TO FIRE OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE
STORMS WERE FALLING APART...AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HIRES
MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF AND HRRR SHOW THE DEVELOPING
CONVECTION DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA. THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

LATER TODAY INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A FEW LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CIN HOLDING OFF
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP MIXING BY LATE
EVENING. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN TO REFLECT THIS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH COOLER DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS ERN
MN AND WRN WI...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN. REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION
DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THIS EVENT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE ABOUT 2 WEEKS AGO...EXCEPT THAT THIS
ONE IS A BIT WEAKER AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS IMPRESSIVE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A LONG STRETCH OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS BEYOND
SUNDAY...EACH DAY WILL MORE OR LESS BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
TWO. REMOVED POPS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK DUE TO VERY WEAK FORCING AND
LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY. THINKING THE WIDESPREAD QPF OVER WI ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF IS MUCH OVERDONE AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AN
OVERESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...AND SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES AT THE SURFACE DUE TO WINDS LESS THAN 3 KT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SFC FRONT MOVING EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED. BELIEVE WILL BE WIDELY SCT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO WC WISCONSIN INTO TE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH CHC MVFR WITH THUNDER. THEN
LOWER MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST AREA
AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12-14Z SUNDAY. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST WITH COLD POOL. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE S-SW AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEN W-NW AND INCREASE/BECOME
GUSTY INTO SUNDAY.

KMSP...
VFR WITH SMALL CHANCE MVFR/TSRA 00Z-03Z. THEN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DROP SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW DROPS
MOVES THROUGH. SHRA THREAT ALSO DEVELOPS DURING THE MORNING. S-SW
WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH W-NW WINDS DEVELOPING...INCREASING AND GUSTY DURING
THE DAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NAT 10KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS N AT 5KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE