360
FXUS63 KMPX 270538
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of rain today may be heavy at times, but the
  overall flooding threat is less than it was Wednesday.

- A threat of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, exists
  across mostly southeastern Minnesota this afternoon.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday
  night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Forecast in the short-term calls for similar conditions as to
what we saw yesterday. Although this time, the QPF maxima has
shifted eastward into southeastern MN and western WI. That being
said, radar reflectivity still showing a wide swath of rainfall
across MN this afternoon. Rainfall rates appear less intense as
observations range between a tenth to a few tenths of an inch
since 12z. However, we are monitoring two systems today. The
first is a discrete MCV that has made its way across the MN/IA
border that is produce heavy rainfall in southern MN. The second
is the main low of pressure circulating around SE`rn SD,
northern NE.

A warm frontal boundary extending from the low shows up well on
satellite currently as clearer skies creep into southeastern MN and
south/central WI. This is the primary area of concern as we head
into the afternoon/evening as the SPC has issued another slight
risk for severe weather for these regions. Although seeing the
current location of the aforementioned MCV in relation to this
frontal boundary will likely confine most severe weather chances
east of a line from Freeborn, up to Goodhue, over to Eau Claire
Counties. The primary threat once again will be tornadoes as
sfc to 6km shear on forecast soundings showing 30-40kts and
MuCAPE values exceeding 1500 J/kg. Heavy rain and damaging wind
gusts will also be a threat this evening. A tornado watch is in
effect until 8 PM tonight.

Additional rainfall today looks to exceed an inch however areas in
southern MN could receive closer to two additional inches
depending on where the strongest convection sets up. With that
said, another Flood Watch was issued earlier this morning across
southern MN through 1 AM Friday. Should QPF trends northward,
the current Flood Watch area may need to be expanded. Heavy
rainfall rates between 1 to 2" are possible once again given
high tropical-like PWATs nearing 2". One thing to note though is
with the lapse of rainfall we saw overnight, this allowed for
yesterday`s rain water to recede. Therefore areas across central
MN that see more rainfall this afternoon, shouldn`t expect
anything beyond ponding in the usual spots.

Friday continues to look like a beautiful day. Temperatures will
reach the low to mid 70s with dew points near 60 degrees. The
"nicer" weather though will be short lived. Saturday, much warmer
temperatures and humidity return. Heat headlines may not be needed
but heat indices will near the mid 90s especially across
southwestern MN. Aside from the hot and humid conditions,
another Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for thunderstorms is
forecasted for Saturday. A shortwave is expected to move across
the Dakotas Saturday which will converge on an already unstable
airmass. Impacts are yet to be determined but make sure to make
plans accordingly for a potential for severe thunderstorms.
Once that passes, things look to quiet down early next week with
highs in the low to mid 80s with dew points mainly in the 60s.
Active weather returns later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Some pockets of drizzle linger, but the main aviation concern
overnight will be the fog and low ceilings. Generally IFR or
low MVFR can be expected across the region, with some spots
flirting with LIFR at times. These conditions will last through
mid morning, with gradual improvement expected the rest of the
day. Winds shift from the N/NW to SE by late afternoon,
generally at or below 5 kts.

KMSP...Going to be right on the line between LIFR and IFR much
of the early morning hours. I am leaning more confidently
towards IFR prevailing, but it is reasonable to expect at least
FEW-SCT cigs below 500 ft through around 14-16z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 8-12 kts.
SUN...MVFR/RA likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR.Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...BED