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000
FXUS63 KMPX 082008
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
308 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

LOOKS A QUIET SHORT TERM WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WI ARE LOCATED IN AN AREA OF STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION AND OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS MN AND WI. THERE IS A SECOND PV ANOMALY IN SD WITH TALLER
CUMULUS CLOUDS IN EASTERN SD AND WESTERN MN...BUT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED MUCH MORE SPARSE UP TO THIS POINT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SMOKE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGHT MAKE FOR A COLORFUL SUNSET
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE IN WESTERN MN WHO ARE CLOSER TO
THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE. THE SMOKE IS BEING ADVECTED SOUTH FROM
WILDFIRES IN CANADA...MOST LIKELY FROM WHAT IS BURNING IN THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. SATELLITE SHOWED A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE IN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CONTINUES TO DRY FROM WHAT WAS PRESENT ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE
LAST COUPLE MPX SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN PWATS OF 1.25" AND 0.90"
RESPECTIVELY AND THE EARLY AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSES ARE HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND 0.75". THERE IS AN OBVIOUS REDUCTION IN SURFACE MOISTURE
TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING
ON IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN FOR TOMORROW.
WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...MN/WI WILL BE OUT OF THE BEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
A RE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN INTO THAT ALL TOO
FAMILIAR CONFIGURATION WE/VE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 9 MONTHS.
FOR US THAT MEANS AFTER SOME BRIEF MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WE/LL SEE THINGS COOL OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE
DETAILS... PCPN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WARM
ADVECTION COMMENCES OVER THE AREA. IT THEN APPEARS WE/LL NEED TO
INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME FRAME THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LINGERS IN THE AREA AND WE SEE
PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS OUR
AREA. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY
AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD BRING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER JET IS DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD... ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD
CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL PCPN IF WE HAVE SUFFICIENT CYCLONIC
FLOW AND EKMAN PUMPING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24-26 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND
SUNSET...AS WILL THE WINDS. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND WE HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN VFR AND LITTLE VARIATION IN WIND DIRECTION. SHOWERS
WILL GRAZE THE KEAU AIRPORT THIS AIRPORT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD ONLY LAST A COUPLE HOURS.

KMSP...

NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS...BUT WE SHOULD KEEP THE BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS UNTIL WE BEGIN TO LOSE OUT HEATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR IN THE EARLY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. W-NW WIND LESS THAN 5 KT.
THU...VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TS LATE. SSE WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA. SOUTH
WIND 5 TO 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLF