Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 160019
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
619 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND MOST
IMPORTANTLY A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY FORECAST FOCI ARE TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...AND OF COURSE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO THE CHANGEOVER.

WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS CURRENTLY TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR OUT WEST BY 00Z. THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THREAT WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MN TOWARD EAST CENTRAL
MN...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 23Z /CAMBRIDGE/ AND
03Z /ALBERT LEA/. SHOULD BE MORE OF A RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW
TRANSITION FOR EASTERN MN OVER A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD...WITH A LOWER THREAT
FOR FREEZING RAIN LIKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE EXPERIENCED.
THEREFORE CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE PLANS TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FARTHER EAST TO INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR THE WISCONSIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL LARGELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 06Z...WITH EASTERN AREAS LIKE
EAU CLAIRE NOT SEEING A FULL TRANSITION CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
2-4 INCHES IN THE WARNING AREA OF WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN...TO
ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

WINDS HAVE BEEN STOUT ACROSS THE WEST TODAY...AND WILL NEAR OR
POSSIBLY TOP ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY. WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY NEED TO PIGGYBACK ON THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR WEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

MUCH COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARRIVE FOR TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS /WEST CENTRAL MN/ TO UPPER 20S /WEST
CENTRAL WI/. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WI AND BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHT/S SYSTEM...A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE
ACROSS CANADA WILL COMBINE WITH TONIGHT/S SYSTEM TO FORM AN UPPER
LOW ACROSS MN/WI. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT E-SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TUE NIGHT/WED...ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WHERE THE
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND CRITICAL DENDRITIC  SNOW GROWTH SNOW
EXISTS.

PAST WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THU. THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN ON FRIDAY AS RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS...AND A WEAK SHRTWV MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE
SOUTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE IN THE PERIOD...AND
WITH THE SPLIT FLOW TYPE OF REGIME WE HAVE HAD IN THE PAST...AM
LEANING TOWARD DRY CONDS. IF WE DO GET ANYTHING...IT WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT QPF AMTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...SO ONLY A
DUSTING IS POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COLDEST EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEM ARE ON THE HORIZON...BUT THE TREND FOR COLDER WX DOES
SHOW UP BY THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN. DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME...AND UNTIL WE GET A
BETTER SENSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING...AM LEANING
TOWARD DRY CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE
STORM SYSTEM OVER IA MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT. A WINTRY MIX FROM
KSTC TO KWRF AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES
IN THE 04Z-06Z PERIOD AND ACROSS WESTERN WI AFTER 06Z. THE
CHANGEOVER LOOKS TO OCCUR A LITTLE QUICKER THAN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED TODAY IN FAR WESTERN MN WITH AN HOUR OR TWO AT THE
MOST FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO OCCUR. A BAND SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING FROM KAXN ON SOUTHWARD WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. WIND WILL BECOME AN ISSUE THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH NORTH WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS. THE SNOW WILL END IN KEAU BY MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES TO THE WEST. BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

KMSP...DRY SLOT OVERHEAD RIGHT NOW WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE
OCCURRING. A MORE STEADY RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE 02Z TO 03Z PERIOD
WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY 05Z. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH 15-20 KNOTS COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH. MVFR CEILINGS ON TUESDAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MNZ041>043-047>049-054-055-058-074-082.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ044-045-
     050>052-059-066>068-075.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ056-057-
     064-065-073.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...RAH





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