Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 020408
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1108 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS SHOWERS/THUNDER THREAT OVER THE NORTHWEST
CWA TUESDAY.

LITTLE CONCERN INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
THROUGH.  THOSE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE CWA IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. UPSTREAM...MODELS
INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA LATER
THIS EVENING...AND GENERATING A SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE
DAKOTAS.  TIMING OF THIS OCCURRING IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME. A FEW HIRES CAMS DO BRING COMPLEX INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY
12Z TUE.  THE ECMWF/GFS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM SIMILARLY AND BELIEVE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHWEST MN
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INSTABILITY RIDGE REMAINS OVER FAR WESTERN MN
INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THAT
AREA INTO THE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CHANCE POPS
DEVELOPING INTO TUESDAY FOR NOW DUE TO CONTINUED TIMING
UNCERTAINTY.

DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER INTO TUESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MIX TO AROUND 850MB WHICH WOULD YIELD SOME MID/UPPER 70S
TO PARTS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...WITH
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THAT A SURFACE LOW
WILL BE STRADDLING THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS LLVL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE
35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET. WILL ALSO HAVE UPPER SUPPORT AS ILLUSTRATED
BY 400MB PV ADVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION EVEN AS THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ WANES. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO BE BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD BE THE
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHEAR
IS MARGINAL AND DESTABILIZATION COULD BE HINDERED BY CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT/MORNING ACTIVITY. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. THURSDAY IS A MESS WITH RESPECT TO MODEL AGREEMENT. TEND
TO PREFER THE DRIER 01.12Z ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS...WHICH KEEP
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH IN IOWA. THE GFS SEEMS
TO BE TOO FAR NORTH AND OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF. HAVE MAINTAINED
20-40 POPS FOR THURSDAY...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT WILL
BE ADJUSTED IN FUTURE FORECASTS TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE MN-IA BORDER. TEND TO THINK FRIDAY WILL TREND DRIER AS
WELL...WITH MODEL TRENDS SHIFTING THE PRECIP EAST/SOUTH WITH TIME.

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRY DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT
/STRONGER/ TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MN...AND
SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 03Z
AND 18Z SUNDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE A BIT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
BEYOND REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...BUT HAVE RATHER
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL INTENSIFY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN...INCLUDING AXN AND RWF. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT VFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT AXN OR
RWF FROM 03-06Z.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WIND DIRECTION AROUND 160 DEGREES DURING
THIS TIME. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY STAY AT VFR LEVELS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY...MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE NIGHT...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE LATE. WIND SSE 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA. WIND S 10 KTS.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL



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