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000
FXUS63 KMPX 111126
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

TWO MAIN CONCERNS THRU TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH SOME MODIFICATION BY LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPDS AS OF 2 AM HAVE ALLOWED FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES TO FALL NEAR -30F IN PORTIONS OF WC/CENTRAL MN. UPSTREAM
ACROSS NW MN...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR -20F WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE PRE DAWN HRS. ALTHOUGH
WIND SPDS ARE NOT GUSTING AS THEY WERE EARLIER...A 6-9 MPH WIND
WITH TEMPS NEAR -20F WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES
AROUND -35F. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WIND CHILL WARNING
FOR CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED WIND CHILL WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MN AND WC WI DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY DUE TO WIND
SPDS LESS THAN 5 MPH BY THE AFTN AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR -5
TO -10F. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT READJUST WSW IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE THE SAME WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA WITH
-20 TO -30F WIND CHILL VALUES CONTINUING DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WC WI. THE NEXT CONCERN IS A FAST MOVING
SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE EVENING...AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST-SE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC WI BY MIDNIGHT. AS QUICKLY
AS THE SNOW BEGINS...IT WILL END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST READINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A SW/S WIND DEVELOPING.
HAVE DEVELOPED A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND THIS EVENING PER THIS
EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

OVERALL...NO LARGE-SCALE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS LOOK TO AFFECT
THE REGION BUT THERE WILL BE SMALL CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS THAT WILL
BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...MAINLY FRI-SAT AND AGAIN MON.

STARTING OUT...TEMPS WILL STILL BE TRICKY ON THU DUE TO STRONG WAA
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE AWAY TO THE S
AND E...RESULTING IN BACKSIDE SLY FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE MILDER TEMPS WILL LAST
THRU FRI...AHEAD OF ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG WITH A
DRIVING LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THOUGH LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO IT BEING VERY FAR DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...COLD AIR WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL THEN BUMP HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON SUNDAY.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEK...A MORE ACTIVE NW-SE FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL MEAN THE KEEPING OF VERY COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUN
AND MON. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK HAS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
STRONGER INFLUENCE OF A ZONAL FLOW...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT
SW-NE TILT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND
STARTING ON TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL NOT MAKE DRASTIC
CHANGES TO THE FCST ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU 00Z/12. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NE 1/4 OF THE CWA OR NEAR KSTC/KRNH/KEAU
BETWEEN 00-12Z...WITH ONLY A BRIEF 2-4 HR PERIOD OF VSBYS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO IFR/MVFR IN -SN. BEST TIME FRAME WILL OCCUR AT KSTC NEAR
5Z...KRNH NEAR 7Z...AND KEAU NEAR 9Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING...MORE
SW/SSW TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WSW BY MORNING. SPDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS.

KMSP...

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. ONLY CONCERN
IS BETWEEN 5-10Z AS A FAST WEAK SYSTEM POSSIBLY DROPS VSBYS TO
MVFR IN -SN. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WNW THIS
MORNING...MORE WSW THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND SSW TONIGHT...BEFORE
VEERING TO THE WEST AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SPDS WILL REMAIN AOB
10 KTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU AFTN/EVENING...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS ENE 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. MVFR AND -SN POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 5 KTS BACKING NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ054>070-073>077-
     082>085-091>093.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041-042-047>049.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ043>045-
     050>053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ078.

WI...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT