Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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849
FXUS63 KMPX 051239
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
739 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MRNG PUTS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRES OVER FAR SERN MN WHILE A WAVY E-W STNRY FRONT
LINGERS N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALOFT...MERIDIONAL FLOW
PREVAILS ATOP MN/WI ON THE ERN FRINGES OF A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THRU THE REST OF THE MRNG HRS...THIS SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT
SE WHILE THE FRONT TO THE N SLIDES EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY ESE.
HOWEVER...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SEWD JAUNT OF THE SFC HIGH WILL
ALSO BE SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE WRN RIDGE. H5 AND H7 PROGS OF THE
RIDGE INDICATE A SLIGHT SHTWV KINK IN THE FLOW WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE MID- AND UPR- LEVELS. THIS WAVE WILL
THEN RIDE SSEWD ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE LATER THIS MRNG
INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. CAMS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING PRECIP
ECHOES BREAKING OUT IN THE WI PORTION OF THE WFO MPX CWFA LATE
THIS MRNG INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS. HOWEVER...FROM A SENSIBLE WX
POINT OF VIEW...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE MEASURABLE PRECIP
SINCE THE LOWER LEVELS ARE PARTICULARLY DEVOID OF MOISTURE. THIS
IS SOMEWHAT EVIDENT IN THAT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
THIS MRNG THAT DECOUPLING AND NEAR-SFC SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN
FROST FORMATION IN THOSE WRN WI COUNTIES /HENCE KEEPING THE FROST
ADVY IN PLACE FOR 3 OF OUR COUNTIES/.

GOING FORWARD...ONCE THE NIGHTLY INVERSION BREAKS...THEN THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT AND RH LEVELS WILL
DROP INTO THE 30S IN WI AND 20S IN MN TDA. THE QUESTION IS IF
THE WEAK TROF ALOFT CAN MOVE INTO THE WI COUNTIES EARLY ENOUGH TO
ALLOW ANY FALLING PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE EVAPORATING.
AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT POPS CAPPED IN THE 20S...MENTIONING ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...FOR THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA...LOTS OF
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS THE INCOMING UPR LVL RIDGE WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN INFLUENCE FOR WAA. WHEREAS THE WI COUNTIES WILL BE HELD IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S FOR HIGHS DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND
NIL TEMP ADVECTION...THE MN COUNTIES WILL BE MORE SUBJECT TO WAA
AND CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S FOR ERN/SRN MN WHILE WRN MN
WILL HAVE TEMPS RISE TO THE MID 80S. THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE AT
PLAY WILL BE THIN-LAYERED SMOKE WELL ALOFT FROM LARGE WILDFIRES
BURNING IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCES. THIS MAY
CREATE A MILKY-TYPE OF ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY...FILTERING
THE SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOTHING TO SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
FORECAST. AIR QUALITY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THE GENERAL
POPULATION...BUT ANYONE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO POLLUTION MAY WANT TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IF SMOKE IMPACTS ARE GREATER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94...AND CLOSER TO I-90.

THE FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WOULD
LIMIT TEMPERATURES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DRY AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MECHANICAL MIXING...SO CONTINUED WITH MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 90S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND AS WAS THE
CASE BEFORE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FRONT IS TO
THE NORTHWEST NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...SO COULD SEE THE FRONT PASS
THROUGH DRY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE HOPWRF TIMESHIFT DOES HAVE
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SO THE 15 TO 20 POPS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SOUTHERN IOWA...WHILE A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEAST. EVENTUALLY THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT...AND THIS
WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POSITIVE
VORTICITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MEANS COOLER TEMPERATURES...
CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD...BUT ISOLD -SHRA WILL
DRIFT SWD ACRS WRN WI THIS MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING KRNH AND
POSSIBLY KEAU. THE MN TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY. SCT-BKN UPR LVL
DECKS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS AFTN...THEN SKIES EXPECTED TO GO SKC
TONIGHT. S TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS INCRG TO 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE DIMINISHING TNGT. ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT BUFKIT PROFILES ON SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
STRONG WSW WINDS IN AROUND 35 KT WITHIN 1-2 KFT OFF THE SFC CLOSE
TO DAYBREAK TMRW MRNG. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR MENTION
ATTM...PLUS DIRECTIONAL DIFFERENCE IS 30 DEGREES OR LESS...SO IT
MAY BE MORE A CASE OF LLVL TURBULENCE RATHER THAN ACTUAL SHEAR.

KMSP...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF SET. ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF LLWS TMRW MORNING...NO WEATHER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND N 5 KTS...BECOMING E.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR IN SHWRS/TSTMS. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC



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