Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 010445

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Stacked upper low pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin
today, with a broad area of clouds and lingering light
precipitation.  This is one of those days with fairly high POPs, but
low QPF values, where everyone sees precipitation going on, but the
reported rainfall amounts are just a few hundredths of a inch. This
system is very slowly moving off to the east, and by Thursday
morning should be just crossing the Ontario/Quebec border.  This is
going to cause this persistent cloud cover and light precipitation
to continue much of tonight before diminishing to just clouds during
the day on Thursday.  Temperatures will stay on the clammy and
chilly side with small diurnal ranges of only about 5 degrees.  Lows
tonight will be in the low 30s, only rising into the mid 30s
tomorrow.  Another cloudy mild night to continue for Tomorrow night,
but cold air advection in the northwest flow should allow min temps
to get into the 20s.  We might get some peeks of sunshine on Friday
and Saturday as a weak surface ridge builds across the area, though
the northwest cyclonic flow continues aloft and it may only be

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Saturday night and Sunday a shortwave moves through the area along
with a trough of low pressure to bring another brief period of light
snow, though confidence is not very high in timing or placement.
Either way, snowfall amounts should be light as the forcing just is
not very strong and available moisture is somewhat weak.

Monday begins a period of high uncertainty as some fairly
significant differences develop in the long range models.  They
agree that a large upper trough moves onto the West Coast, but there
are very large differences in how this feature and the shortwaves
within it evolve through Tuesday and Wednesday.  A leading shortwave
should bring precipitation to mainly the western half of the area
beginning on Monday, but the ECMWF is much stronger and slower with
this feature and delays the precipitation into Tuesday, almost
missing us to the west, while the faster GFS brings precipitation in
as early as Sunday night and keeps precipitation going into Tuesday.
Behind this initial wave the large upper trough slowly oozes east to
over the Midwest, with shortwaves within that wave continuing to
vary in track, timing and speed with little agreement between the
models in more than the large scale generic pattern.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Pockets of light rain and snow will persist overnight with
visibilities for the most part remaining VFR. Ceilings on the
other hand will be a few hundred feet either side of 010. The
trend seen for Thursday is for ceilings to lift to 020-030 across
eastern MN and western WI with some VFR toward evening. Ceilings
across western MN will likely remain low MVFR (010-015). NW winds
near 10 knots overnight and Thursday then diminishing Thursday

KMSP...Pockets of light rain will affect the airfield for the next
several hours with surface temperatures at or above 35 degrees.
Can`t rule out a little light snow mixing in from time to time.
Ceilings will dip to IFR around 09z and stay down until about
15z before rising above 020 in the afternoon.

Fri...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR. Chance -sn. Wind SW 10 kts.




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