403
FXUS63 KMPX 251930
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm front pushes northeastward this afternoon/evening,
  bringing a chance for showers/storms across western and
  central Minnesota.

- The active pattern continues for Memorial Day weekend,
  especially tomorrow when widespread rain is likely across
  southern MN and western WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A warm front, stretching from central South Dakota towards southern
Minnesota, is slowly pushing its way northeastward this afternoon. A
broad area of radar reflectivity returns draped over eastern
South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota will follow the warm
front as it heads into western and central Minnesota later this
afternoon/evening. Given the dry layer of air near the surface,
many locations have not been reporting any precip making it to
the ground. This is expected to be the case for the majority of
south- central and eastern Minnesota as well. We have maintained
a narrow line of likely (50-70%) PoPs extending from Lac Qui
Parle towards Kanabec counties in Minnesota, where the forcing
will be strongest and moisture more abundant. A few pockets of
stronger storms are possible, especially further north where we
could see up to 50kts of effective bulk shear and 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. This line will weaken overnight, giving a brief break
until showers/storms pick back tomorrow morning. This second
round will primarily impact the southeastern corner of Minnesota
and western Wisconsin, but it could clip the Twin Cities metro
late morning into the afternoon. Areas that see rain tomorrow
could receive around 0.25-0.5" with locally higher amounts
possible as you head into central Wisconsin.

Following the system tomorrow, a pair of shortwaves are still on
track to ride along the primary circulation and bring additional
chances for rain early next week. QPF remains low, with only up to a
couple tenths expected through both disturbances. The latest
forecast package favors the first wave to track a little further
west than the second, further limiting any notion of this being a
period of widespread, soaking rain. While a rumble of thunder will
not be out of the question, the potential for anything severe looks
to be low for both waves (weak lapse rates and limited 0-3km MUCAPE).

The area of broad troughing ultimately slides east as ridging builds
in over the central Plains around mid-week. This should result in a
small stretch of nice outdoor days, with mostly clear skies and
light winds. Temperatures during this time frame will attempt to
push into the upper 70s for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

We could be looking at another active period by the end of the week,
with global models hinting at a potentially deep, strengthening
trough slicing through the Upper Midwest. Both deterministic and
ensemble guidance show a strong moisture plume extending from the
Gulf up into parts of northern Manitoba and Ontario. While severity
and timing are difficult to lock in this far out, there is certainly
potential for another wet and active period heading into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

High clouds are working in from the west early this afternoon.
Radar is showing some returns, but with ample dry air in place,
very little if any precip is making it to the ground. Over the
next few hours as things become more saturated, there is a
slight chance for some showers across central Minnesota,
including KAXN and KSTC. These showers may last through a good
portion of the overnight hours, but confidence is low, so went
with a PROB30 for now. Elsewhere, expect cigs to lower through
early Sunday morning with another round of rain to impact the
other 5 terminals by mid morning with cigs dropping to MVFR
through the remainder of the period.

Wind wise, breezy southwest winds will diminish by 00z and
become southeasterly/easterly at around 10kts.

KMSP...Thinking KMSP will remain dry this afternoon with rain
holding off until around 12z tomorrow through early afternoon.
Southwesterly wind gusts should drop off around 00z this evening
and turn southerly and then easterly as mentioned above.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...Mainly VFR. Chance -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind VRB 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dye