RSS FeedsIssued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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000 FXUS63 KMPX 210457 AAA AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1059 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW... .DISCUSSION... AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MAINLY WC WI DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY. SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AS GRADIENT BUILDS EAST INTO THE AREA AND SFC RDG EXITS THE REGION. ISSUED DENSE FOG ADV THROUGH 16Z SAT MORNING. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CIG/FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO THE KEAU/KRNH AREA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SAT. OTHER MVFR VSBY/FOG IN THE KSTC/KMSP REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AS SFC RDG MOVES EAST AND GRADIENT DEVELOPS EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE GUSTY CATEGORY OVER MN FA...DEVELOPING THROUGH 18Z SAT. THEN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY. GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE AS TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING IN QUESTION AGAIN WITH THE NAM_WRF PROBABLY A BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS THIS RUN. WILL HINT AT SOME SCT015 LIFTING INTO THE KRWF/KMSP THROUGH 05Z SUN...AND THEN BKN015 AT KMSP AFTER 09Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENTIAL OF FOG...THIS TIME IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF CWA. METARS STILL SHOWING SOME HZ IN THE AIR FROM THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA ON EAST WITH MID CLOUDS ON THEIR WAY OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE A BIT COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS TODAY REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW IN ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WILL BE ADD A FEW MORE DEGREES. A BIT BREEZY WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH 850 MB WINDS UP INTO THE 40 KNOT RANGE. VIGOROUS TROUGH COMING ONSHORE ONTO WEST COAST WITH 12Z 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS IN 100 METER RANGE. THIS FEATURE GETS DAMPENED OUT A BIT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH STRONGER TROUGH COMING IN BEHIND IT. THE CONCERN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY IS FOR STRATUS TO IMPACT AREA IN CONTINUED SOUTH FLOW. EXPANDED AREA OF DRIZZLE NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. ALSO BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS JUST A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREA STILL GOOD ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS AS AIRMASS MOISTENS UP. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK WITH ECMWF BIT SLOWER WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ON DEEP UPPER LOW. MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR VICINITY UPPER LOW FOR AT LEAST A MIX...BASED ON GFS TIMING. ENUF COLD AIR IN PLACE BY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT/WED FOR ANY PCPN TO BE -SN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THURSDAY WITH COOL..CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GOODHUE. WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA- DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX. && $$ DWE/MTF
