Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 221127
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
627 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LARGE AREA OF
SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH NEARLY
MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT...HELPING ENHANCE CAA THIS MRNG. COLDER AIR
OVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IS HELPING
PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE REGION
UNDERNEATH INCOMING RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE ROCKIES WILL SPELL LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TDA DUE TO INCRG H5
HEIGHTS. SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E DURG THE
DAY TDA WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVHD THRU TNGT. RETURN SLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH MEANS LOW TEMPS TUE MRNG WILL NOT
BE AS COOL AS WHAT IS EXPERIENCED THIS MRNG. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT INCRS IN CLOUDS TNGT...MAINLY OVER SWRN MN...IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES. IN ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...WHERE THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES WILL STILL
HAVE SOME INFLUENCE...WINDS WILL GO CALM AGAIN WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE CWFA SO PATCHY FOG LOOKS TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER
WRN WI WWD TO THE MN STATE LINE. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND SPREAD CLOUDS OVER MN/WI. ASIDE FROM THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
AND LACK OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP MOST LOCATIONS
DRY...BUT CONTINUED WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

ASIDE FROM SHALLOW MORNING GROUND FOG AT STATIONS MAINLY AWAY FROM
KMSP...VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU TMRW MRNG. ANY MIFG THIS MRNG
WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z. THERE IS A SMALL CHC OF SEEING SOME FOG
AGAIN IN WRN WI...AFFECTING KRNH AND KEAU...BUT CHCS ARE TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION ATTM. BACKING WINDS TDA THRU TNGT WITH SPEEDS AOB 10
KT.

KMSP...VFR THROUGHOUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WINDS S 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 12-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS SSE 7-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC





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