Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 271809
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

A band of fgen to the northwest of an MCV going across IA has a
band of light rain working up into the southern Twin Cities metro
this afternoon. This will likely spread into the Eau Claire area
through the afternoon, but dry air below 8k feet may result in
more virga/sprinkles as opposed to measurable rain, so kept PoPs
confined to no high than the 30s.

For tonight, guidance last night showed another fgen band
developing over north central IA and building toward western WI
for tonight, but guidance this morning as really backed off on
this band of precip, pushing it southeast as strong convection
getting going down in the Ozarks that will spread toward the
Tennessee Valley will help keep the southern forcing to the south.

We are also watching northern stream energy moving south across
Saskatchewan on the southwest side of an h5 low centered over
northern Manitoba. Guidance has slowed how fast this northern
stream energy gets here tomorrow, with popup afternoon showers
Sunday looking to stay confined to mainly central MN and NW WI, so
did reduce PoPs tomorrow south of I-94. In fact, Sunday really is
not looking all that bad. NAM shows us mixing a bit above 800mb,
which will ensure frequent gusts up around 25 mph by the
afternoon, but other than that, we should see a fair amount of sun
and mixing up to h8 will allow us to warm comfortably into the
upper 60s to lower 70s, so we should put together one more nice
day Sunday before we finally turn cooler, cloudier, and showerier
for Memorial Day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

No significant changes to the long term forecast. An upper level
trough will drive low level cold air advection through latter half
of the holiday weekend bringing northwest winds and temperatures in
the 60s for Monday through Wednesday. A few showers are possible as
well during this time frame as the cold air aloft together with late
May surface heating leads to some deeper cumulus development and
rain showers.

Looking ahead, the cold air departs the region on Wednesday, with
southerly flow returning Wednesday night into Thursday. This will
bring 70s back across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Forecast temperatures
may be too cool on Thursday as we currently sit on the cool side of
guidance. Friday looks to be warm as well, but there could be some
convection along a warm front that is forecast to lift northward
across the Upper Midwest, so did not adjust temperatures from the
blended guidance. As of now, seasonable weather looks to return for
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Band of rain south of MSP has been holding together better than
expected, but see it remaining just south of MSP. May hold
together enough to make it into EAU around 20z, but not overly
confident the forcing will hang together to allow it to reach
there. After this, the next potential shot of showers comes
between 6z and 12z up between AXN and STC as shortwave currently
over SW Saskatchewan rotates into central MN. This is a low
confidence/low coverage scenario, so have kept those TAFs dry.
Otherwise, only area where models look to be a bit underdone is
with wind potential tomorrow, with mixing up over h8, some gusts
up around 30 kts look possible by the afternoon in MN.

KMSP...Rain just south of the field may through a sprinkle or two
to the ground through 20z, but would be of little impact, so kept
going trend in the TAF. Expect coverage of diurnal shower
activity Sunday to be in central/northern MN, so have kept the TAF
dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Chc -shra. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...MPG



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