Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 241746
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE RAIN/THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
THE CHANCE OF WET SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA INTO TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS WITH
INITIAL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...AND BASED ON BEST LI`S...THIS
SHOULD WORK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND INTO A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA NOW...WITH SOME MID/UPPER 30S.  AS STRONG LIFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS
INDICATED A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THE POTWX TOOL DID INDICATE SMALL AREAS OF
RAIN/SNOW INTO THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WE DID INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW WITH THE RAIN OVER THAT REGION INTO TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA
THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN THE GRIDS THE
LAST FEW DAYS/  THE RAIN AREA WILL BE AFFECTING THE MORNING COMMUTE
OVER THE SOUTH EAST. SECOND AREA OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA.  MODELS WERE INDICATING SOME
MUCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COLD TEMPS ALOFT GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY.  MENTIONED SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD IN THE 40S
IN THE AREAS SEEING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN...MAINLY EASTERN CWA.

THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST INTO TONIGHT.  COULD SEE A RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT.  DIDNT MENTION ANY
ACCUMULATION AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE POSITIVE NOTE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. THE
NOT-SO-POSITIVE PART IS THAT THEY HAVE CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION
THAT FEATURES THE MARRYING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED LOW
WITH A LOW THAT BACK PEDDLES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM QUEBEC. WHAT
THIS TRANSLATES TO IS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 20-30 POPS
LITTERING THE FORECAST... AS THE MASSIVE LOW OVERWHELMS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD UPSTREAM OF THE DEEPENING BAJA TROUGH.
FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 50S UP TOWARD LADYSMITH WHERE RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER.

SATURDAY WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH REACHES THE PLAINS. RELATED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BEGIN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH NOTABLY INCREASING RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A NEARLY STACKED SYSTEM
MEANDERS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. HAVE INCLUDED 60-80 POPS ACROSS
THE BULK OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...EXCEPTING A LITTLE
FALLS TO EAU CLAIRE LINE WHICH MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN MN LOCALES WILL HAVE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDER...WHILE NORTHERN AREAS /INTERSTATE 94
AND NORTH/ MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN /PRIMARILY IN THE NOCTURNAL
TIME FRAMES MONDAY-TUESDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURE THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED LOW POPS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
READINGS POSSIBLY CLOSING OUT THE MONTH OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS IN PROGRESS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MN
AND WESTERN WI. THE FIRST AREA AROUND THE TWIN CITIES AND POINTS
EAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE THE SECOND AREA IN WESTERN MN IS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BOTH AREAS WILL CONTINUE ON A NE TRACK
AT 25-30 KNOTS WITH A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND. IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR KAXN AND KRWF
AND AS WE APPROACH EVENING FOR KSTC AND KMSP. THE NATURE OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PROBABLY
NOT CLEAR KRNH AND KEAU TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH ALL OF THE
RAIN IN THE PAST TWO DAYS COMBINED WITH SLOW CLEARING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE MN TAF SITES...FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHETHER THIS WILL
END UP BEING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DUE TO SOME WIND AND CLOUDS
AROUND. AT THIS POINT...BEGAN INSERTING MVFR VSBY IN FOG ALONG
WITH IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS FOR KAXN...KRWF AND KSTC. BROUGHT VSBYS
DOWN FOR KRNH AND KEAU AS WELL OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...VSBYS IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST. CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING ABOVE 1K BY MID AFTERNOON
AND TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. EAST WINDS WILL BE
BACKING TO THE NE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO THE NW BY LATE
IN THE DAY. CONCERNS TONIGHT INCLUDE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
RETURNING. FOR NOW...KEEPING THE LOW CEILINGS TO THE EAST OF THE
METRO WITH THE LOW VSBYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. NW WINDS
INCREASING BY MIDDAY ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS APPRACHING 15 KNOTS
ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN -RA. E WINDS 15-25 KTS.
MON...MVFR/IFR -RA BR. E WINDS 15-25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH





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