Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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901 FXUS63 KMPX 051057 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 557 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with highest chances generally along and north of I-94. Damaging winds and hail are possible with any stronger storms that develop. - Breezy northwest winds are expected through the end of the week with gusts of 35-40 MPH possible Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The last of the showers from yesterday are winding down across western Wisconsin early this morning with clear skies back to the west. Today will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with a few strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds and small hail. This threat can be broken down into two separate regions; one across central/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin (where the SPC SWODY1 Marginal Risk lies) and another across western and southern Minnesota. A second, stronger wave associated with the cutoff low centered over Saskatchewan and Manitoba will move across the region. Winds at the base of this trough (across the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota) will be very strong with speeds ranging from 40-50kts at 850mb to 70-80kts at 500mb. These winds will likely mix down with any showers that develop and pose a threat for damaging winds. While afternoon convection is possible, the biggest question is how dry air in the low levels would impact the amount of rain actually making it to the surface with these winds. After much collaboration with neighboring offices, decided the best way to handle this threat was a Wind Advisory. Further north, the set up is a little more typical and straightforward as there is better moisture to work with. Around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop by this afternoon with steep mid level lapse rates allowing for a damaging wind and hail threat. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. These should not be as efficient rain producers as we`ve seen the past few days, so QPF amounts are only around 0.10-0.25". The remainder of the work week should be dry with gusty northwest winds continuing on the backside of this system as it pulls away over the northern Great Lakes. Gusts of 30-40 MPH are expected Thursday with things trending down a bit Friday as the low continues to move eastward. Relatively dry and pleasant weather is expected through the remainder of the period with only a low chance for showers on Saturday. Looking into next week, warmer weather returns with highs back in the 80s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Primary concern is scattered showers and storms that are expected to develop across much of the region this afternoon, especially from KSTC and KRWF and points east. Cells should be fairly scattered in nature, and generally last less than an hour at a time at a given location, but could pack gusty winds greater than 40 kts and small hail when they move through. West winds will also be gusty outside of thunderstorms, with occasional gusts as high as 30kts through the afternoon. Storms will taper off toward sunset, but occasional gusts expected to continue overnight. KMSP...Scattered storms expected in the vicinity 20Z through 01Z, with one or two impacts at the terminal possible through this time. Storms could produce small hail and gusts greater than 40 kts. These impacts should be brief in nature, generally less than an hour, possibly even 15 minutes or so. Expect storms to push east after sunset. Outside of storms west winds will gust as high as 30 kts this afternoon and evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Blue Earth-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Steele- Waseca-Watonwan. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dye AVIATION...DPH