Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 270010 AAA
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The abnormally strong storm system north of the Canadian border
this afternoon will move off to the east overnight and Monday. At
the surface, high pressure will build across the region overnight
and Monday with lighter winds expected. A secondary short wave in
the northwest flow aloft on Monday, plus the added moisture
advection from the Upper Midwest, allow for more cloud cover,
especially in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Any
precipitation that falls with this short wave will be in northern
Wisconsin. Temperatures will be much cooler on Monday as this
secondary wave will usher in cool Canadian air.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good consistency continues today among the various long term
solutions for the week ahead. There`s a very small chance that a
few showers could be ongoing in our far eastern forecast area
Monday evening (Eau Claire to Ladysmith) as a strong PV anomaly
pushes through. Various CAMS today indicate the best chance for a
few showers during the mid to late afternoon hours, but then dry
thereafter. Therefore left the chance out for Monday evening.
Otherwise, Tuesday will be a beautiful day with high pressure
overhead. Adjusted the lows down a few degrees Tuesday morning
across central MN and adjoining areas of west central WI with
middle to upper 40s indicated. Highs on Tuesday are expected to
only be in the 70 to 75 degree range.

Moving forward, the best chance for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region continues to be Wednesday
night and Thursday as a cold front moves through. Rain amounts of
a tenth to a quarter inch are possible. Pushed pops up a little
but if the trend holds we may end up with a small period of likely
pops when the front moves through. There will be a little warmup
on Wednesday ahead of the front with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Highs will be a few degrees lower on Thursday due to
the clouds and showers. The cooler air will be felt on Friday with
highs mainly back in the 70 to 75 degree range. There will also be
a good deal of sunshine on Friday.

The threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly
increase across western MN heading through the upcoming holiday
weekend as the northwest flow pattern aloft becomes more westerly
as troughing pushes into the Pacific Northwest. As it stands now,
southerly low level flow will increase across the region by the
4th of July (Monday) with a more realistic chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions expected tonight. Clouds across northern Minnesota
and North Dakota will work south for Monday morning. Some of the
bases may be at MVFR levels until the afternoon when they lift
back to VFR.

KMSP...A few clouds at MVFR levels may push in between 13-15Z but
should lift to VFR by afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. Light and variable wind.
Wed...VFR. Southwest wind 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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