341
FXUS63 KAPX 062300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool with showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and Friday.

- Showers remain possible Saturday and Sunday.

- Warmer and quieter weather Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: 18z surface analysis shows a broad
pressure gradient across the Great Lakes south of a 991mb low over
far northwest Ontario...and in the wake of a cold front now east of
the Great Lakes and moving into New England and the Mid Atlantic.
Also a broad upper level circulation near the western shore of Lake
Superior with a negatively tilted trough axis extending across the
Great Lakes. Several embedded disturbances within this circulation...
one moving through central Upper at mid afternoon is the one of
most near term interest. This feature has a broken area of
showers and some thunderstorms across much of Lake Superior/Upper
Michigan/northern Wisconsin. A few spottier showers popped up
across northern Lower inland from westerly flow off Lake
Michigan.

Deep layer cyclonic flow and thermal troughing will persist across
the forecast area through Friday..along with deep moisture
circulating back across the northern half of the state though drier
air trying to edge its way into southern Lower Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Showers tonight...and Friday as well: Vorticity center spinning
across northern Michigan will keep showers going into this evening
though coverage may diminish with loss of heating.  Deep layer
moisture lingers overnight into Friday...will keep skies mainly on
the cloudy side and periodic showers to continue.  The exception may
be over the southwest quarter of the forecast area (TVC/CAD and
west) where cloud cover may thin out during the afternoon.

Below normal temperatures Friday: Normal highs for tomorrow are in
the 70-75 degree range...but cloud cover and overall cool air mass
will keep temperatures in the 50s for most of the day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Midlevel closed low pressure currently over the Ontario/Manitoba
boarder with attached shortwave troughing will continue to drive
chances of precipitation across the upper Great Lakes region for the
next few days. A strong jet maxima riding along the southern end of
the aformentioned trough will continue to allow a cooler Canadian
air mass to push its way into Michigan leaving the CWA with cooler
than average surface temperatures.

The core of the low will slowly progress center itself just north of
Lake Ontario and the core of the jet will settle over Michigan`s
lower peninsula at the start of the long term. A wet and unsettled
pattern will remain in place this Saturday and perhaps into Sunday
before midlevel ridging builds across the Great Lakes region Monday
and Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Continued showers remain possible across the CWA this Saturday
and Sunday: Precipitation is expected to continue this weekend
as the core of the midlevel low will support scattered showers
to linger across the CWA (especially for the U.P and the
straits). Dynamics associated with the aformentioned jet core
will aid with additional showers over the central and northern
lower region. The biggest uncertainty with showers on Sunday as
upstream ridging eventually pushes to trough eastward and builds
midlevel heights. Rainfall amounts will be very low as QPF
ensembles remain around a general tenth or so of measurable
liquid.

Surface high pressure builds a warmer and quieter weather
pattern Monday and Tuesday: Aformentioned midlevel ridging over
the Northern Pacific will make its way to the upper Midwest and
return quiet weather to the CWA by the Monday/Tuesday timeframe.
Temperatures will return to climatological normal for mid June.
Long range guidance is hinting at the return of showers and
Storms later next week but still too early to message potential
impacts. As of now, no heavy precipitation or severe weather is
expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Deep upper level troughing/convergence combined with ample low
level moisture will continue to generate sct/nmrs showers and
isold thunderstorms tonight into Friday across much of Michigan.
Prevailing conditions will remain low VFR/MVFR...dropping at
times to IFR within heavier showers and storms. Surface winds
will remain from the W/NW at 10 to 20 kts thru Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MLR