Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 011016
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
616 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

AFTER SOME MORNING DRIZZLE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BRING AN OVERALL DRY DAY TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TODAY. HOWEVER...
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE AND SWING INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND COOL WEATHER...WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FOR LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP TODAY BUT MORE WET WEATHER ON THE WAY...

OVERVIEW: PINCHED HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS SITTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH A DEPARTING SHORT WAVE
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OVER PENNSYLVANIA...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
AND SFC LOW LIFTING UP THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO CANADA. BUT
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE...ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS REMAINS STUCK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDING THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. STILL GETTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN...EVIDENCED BY PERIODIC
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS.

MEANWHILE...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NOAM
WITH ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND YET
ANOTHER STRONG PIECE OF ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CANADA.
THESE TWO WAVES EVENTUALLY PHASE UP AND CARVE OUT A DEEP NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET AND CHILLY WEATHER TO NRN
MICHIGAN...PAY BACK FOR OUR RECENT STRETCH OF NICE WEATHER.

TODAY...CLOUD COVER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY
SLIPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS SE
TO SOUTH ANS BEGINS TO EDGE WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION.
BUT AS MENTIONED...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER STRETCHES ALL THE WAY INTO
OHIO AND IT WILL TAKE SOME DOING FOR AN EARLY OCTOBER SUN TO ERODE
AWAY SUCH EXTENSIVE STRATUS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO OPEN UP
SUBSTANTIALLY DOWN LOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WE MAY ULTIMATELY
SEE A SOUTH-NORTH THINNING TREND TO THE CLOUDS. BUT SUSPECT CLOUD
COVER WILL SIMPLY BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE
TRENDED SKY FORECASTS MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT HIGH TEMPS
BELOW MOS GUIDANCE.

TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IN THE NRN PLAINS CONTINUES
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A STRETCHED SFC FRONT EASING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SLIPS INTO THE STATE BY MORNING. COMBINED WARM
ADVECTION AND UPPER JET FORCING WILL DRIVE ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL
INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TIMING IS STILL A BIT UP FOR DEBATE. EURO SOLUTION IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE FROM A QPF STANDPOINT ANYWAY...PUSHING PRECIP INTO ALL
AREAS WEST OF I-75 BY MORNING WHICH MAY BE A BIT QUICK GIVEN THE
DRIER LOWER LEVELS TO START. BUT CONSIDERING THE PULSE OF STRONG
FORCING...HAVE SPED UP PRECIP TIMING JUST A BIT OVER INHERITED
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

...OH BOY HERE WE GO...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

SORRY TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE ABOUT TO
PAY BIG TIME FOR ALL THE NICE WEATHER WE HAD RECENTLY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE LOOKING BLEAKER AND BLEAKER WITH EVERY RUN FOR THE
WEATHER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FIRST
OFF...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A
SWATH OF RAIN INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
COMBINE WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO DIG OUT A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH MAY LINGER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL DEPENDING UPON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. IN
THE MEANTIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
RAMP UP FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAINY AND BREEZY WEATHER
FOLLOWED BY VERY CHILLY AND BRISK WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS. IT WILL TURN COLD ENOUGH ALOFT LATER
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT (-3 TO -5 C AT 850 MB) THAT IT IS NOT
TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME WET SNOW FLAKES COULD MIX IN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER AND IN EASTERN UPPER.
HOWEVER...NOT IN ANY HURRY TO FORECAST ANY WHITE STUFF JUST YET DUE
TO THE WARM GREAT LAKES. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE A VERY SLOW MODERATING
PROCESS IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK...UNLESS YOU BELIEVE THE GFS
WHICH CONTINUES TO LINGER THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LUCKY TO
MAKE IT INTO THE 60S FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY (RAIN MAY KEEP
SOME SPOTS IN THE 50S)...THEN WE WILL LIKELY BE STUCK IN THE 40S TO
THE LOWER 50S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW SPOTS NOT MAKING IT OUT
OF THE UPPER 40S. LOWS IN THE MILD MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

IFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH TVC/MBL MAY REMAIN IN MVFR CIGS DUE TO A WEAK
DOWNSLOPING EASTERLY FLOW. BUT CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY
AS LOW CLOUDS STRETCH ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO OHIO. NONETHELESS...
THINNING CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND WE MAY REACH VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

TONIGHT...APN HAS A GOOD SHOT OF SEEING FOG REDEVELOP THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER BATCH OF RAINFALL WILL EDGE INTO NW LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE OVERNIGHT REACHING PLN/TVC/MBL BY MORNING AND
A QUICK RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

WINDS WILL VEER SE TO SOUTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LARGELY UNDER 10 KNOTS. MUCH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL NEARSHORE
AREAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND
WINDS SHIFT INTO THE WEST.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADAM
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM






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