806
FXUS63 KAPX 061717
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
117 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms again later
  today.

- Unsettled weather continues through the weekend.

- Warming and drying trend could begin early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1118 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Synopsis: Negative tilt upper trough axis extends from northern
Saskatchewan southeast across the Great Lakes with several
disturbances embedded.  One was moving through northeast Lower
Michigan and into Lake Huron at late morning with a second digging
southeast into Lake Superior/western Upper along the cyclonic shear
side of a 110kt jet streak.  This also means the mid level thermal
trough axis also cuts across the Great Lakes with 500mb temperatures
around -19C on the 12z APX sounding.  12z surface analysis shows a
989mb low over far northwest Ontario...cold front looping southward
across northeast Ontario/western Quebec and into the lower Great
Lakes.  Initial area of rain associated with northeast Lower
vorticity maximum has pushed out into Lake Huron...skies have been
clearing behind this though diurnal heating already starting to
bubble up some Cu/Sc.  More widespread cloud cover associated with
vertical motion field ahead of western Lake Superior short wave
trough is advancing across central Upper/far northern Wisconsin.

Forecast Update: Still expecting an increase in convective coverage
this afternoon especially across eastern Upper with some enhanced
low level convergence (and potential for rainfall amounts in the
0.50-1.00 inch range).  So no big adjustments to the forecast...
increasing clouds with showers/thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon.  Winds will be breezy across northern Lower with high
temperatures from the mid 60s to mid 70s east of the M-33 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Strong, amplified troughing with downstream blocking will continue
to pivot over the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the system
becomes increasingly vertically stacked with time, the associated
surface cyclone will gradually weaken as it spins over Ontario.

Forecast Details:

Shower/storm chances today -- Ongoing showers and rumbles of thunder
will continue to work across parts of northern Michigan over the
next few hours before ending later this morning. A brief lull in
rain chances is anticipated from around mid morning into the early
afternoon before chances for showers and storms return. Sufficient
forcing aloft provided by the aforementioned wave pivoting overhead
and relatively weak buoyancy (~300 to 1,000 J/kg MUCAPE) will
support scattered to numerous showers/storms this afternoon into the
evening hours. Primary hazards with this low-topped activity will be
lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Severe storms are
not anticipated at this time. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be
in place today with highs staying in the mid 60s to low 70s for
most. Overnight lows look to dip into the 40s for many areas away
from the immediate lakeshores.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep upper level closed low
continues to move east Friday, gradually taking rain chances with.
Most rain chances should be east of the CWA by Friday evening. West
to northwest flow and generally cloudy skies should keep
temperatures cooler. Brief zonal mid and upper level flow Saturday
as around 60 to 70kts move over the central part of the state. A
weak surface low will likely accompany this upper jet, giving way to
more light precipitation chances Saturday (best chances are over
northern lower at this time). An upper level ridge will start to
accelerate southward over the Hudson Bay Sunday, and will elongate a
shortwave extending towards the northern plains from the previous
closed low to our east. This will lower heights aloft once again,
and use recycled moisture for some more rain chances Sunday. Warmer
and drier weather looks to arrive Monday, however some guidance
suggests more rain later next week.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Confidence in the pattern
remaining wet and unsettled is high as anomalous moisture is already
circulating around the closed low to our north and guidance doesn`t
suggest anything to push it out (deterministic or ensembles). There
will be breaks from the clouds and rain, however generally chances
remain in the forecast for this weekend. There is run to run
consistency on an upper level ridge moving down from Hudson Bay, the
inconsistencies have been what that does to the feature in front of
it (the upper closed low/shortwave). Guidance leans more towards a
shortwave and resulting rain from this for Sunday, with the ridge
building in Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Showery/unsettled weather expected through the forecast period...
mainly VFR to start outside of heavier rain showers but expect
MVFR conditions to develop this evening except perhaps at
KMBL...with IFR ceilings more likely at KCIU/KPLN after 04z.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JPB