Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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781
FXUS63 KAPX 101123
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
623 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...COLD WITH LAKE SNOWS...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: CONTINUING HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

OVERVIEW: DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF NOAM...DOWNSTREAM OF SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH COLD AIR PLUNGING DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
CERTAINLY A PATTERN MORE AKIN TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WINTERS AND
CERTAINLY NOT EL-NINO LIKE. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE WESTER LAKES. COLDER AIR
HAS FINALLY MADE INROADS INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING.

MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS JUST NOW NUDGING INTO EASTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER PENINSULA. SYNOPTIC FORCING/MOISTURE
HAS PROVIDED AN UPTICK/ORGANIZATION IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOCUSED INTO THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION OF THIS CWA...ALTHOUGH LAKE EFFECT IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS
I HAD HOPED IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR WARNINGS. OUTSIDE THE LAKE
EFFECT...A GENERAL LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW PERSISTS
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH BACK EDGE TO THE BACKGROUND SNOW
IS WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE CWA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST
END TO THE BACKGROUND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA BY AFTERNOON...
LEAVING JUST THE LOCKED IN NNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO DEAL
WITH. AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT IS CONCERNED...EXTREME OVER LAKE
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH H8 TEMPS
-22C OR COLDER/A DEEP LAKE INDUCED CONVECTIVE LAYER/HIGH
CAPE...AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS IN EXCESS OF 8K FEET. SUBSIDENCE AND
INCOMING DRY AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE
BATTLING THE EXTREME OVER WATER INSTABILITY AND DEEP CONVECTIVE
LAYER...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY THROTTLE BACK LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES TO SOME DEGREE. A LOWERING DGZ MAY ALSO HAVE SOME
IMPACT ALTHOUGH I THINK SNOW-WATER RATIOS AND RESULTING FLUFF
FACTOR WILL REMAIN RATHER HEALTHY WITHIN THE LAKE BANDS (I WOULD
REALLY LIKE TO SEE H8 TEMPS A BIT COLDER BEFORE WORRYING TOO MUCH
ABOUT REDUCED RATIOS/SMALLER FLAKES). BUT THE OVERALL BOTTOM
LINE...CATEGORICAL POPS/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NNW LAKE EFFECT FLOW
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUALLY TRIMMING POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE CWA.

ACCUMULATIONS: ARW/NMM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO PUMP OUT
SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...UPWARD OF AN INCH WITHIN THE MODELED
MOST PERSISTENT BANDING. CONCERNING TO SAY THE LEAST...BUT PROBABLY
OVERDONE GIVEN THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE
LAKE CONVECTION. AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE...OVERALL LAKE EFFECT
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDERWHELMING THUS FAR. BUT JUST
BY VIRTUE OF THE INSTABILITY/LOCKED-IN NNW FLOW/AND LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTED BANDING...I STILL HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT ANOTHER 3 TO 6
INCHES IS REASONABLE IN AND AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION
TODAY...AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF ANY PARTICULAR BAND BECOMES LOCKED IN PLACE
OVER AN AREA. SHY OF STRICT WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS/BLOWING SNOW...PLAN ON MAINTAINING CURRENT WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AS-IS FOR NOW AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO GATHER REPORTS AND FIND OUT
JUST WHERE WE ARE AT IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH
FRIDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...WITH
HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME.  BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: FULL-LATITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH +PNA/-EPO
RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND UP INTO ALASKA HAS OPENED THE DOOR
FOR ARCTIC AIR TO SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONTINENT.
COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE POLE PULLS AN UPPER LOW DOWN TO JAMES
BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY.  SHOULD GET A BREAK FROM THE COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

LAKE-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL HANG ACROSS MICHIGAN THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY AS A COLD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE NORTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  POLAR SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST ONTARIO WILL PUSH A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FRIDAY...WITH SOME BRUTALLY
COLD THICKNESSES BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY (SUB-495DM INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN).

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW ALONG THE NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
MORE SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.  WIND CHILLS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER THERMAL TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF
MICHIGAN BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL WEAKEN
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX.  WILL ALSO SEE LARGER SCALE
DOWNWARD FORCING SPREAD ACROSS MICHIGAN THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A
GRADUAL SUPPRESSION OF INVERSION HEIGHTS.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ONGOING TO START THURSDAY MORNING BASICALLY ALONG-WEST OF I-75
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/NORTHWEST LOWER...AND PERHAPS CLIPPING PARTS OF
PRESQUE ISLE/ALPENA/ALCONA COUNTIES IN FAR NORTHEAST LOWER.  WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BACK MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY...SO
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SPREAD OUT AND NOT AS FOCUSED OVER ANY
ONE AREA.  MAY BE ONE ELONGATED BAND WITH AN EFFECTIVE FETCH OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
REGION AND DOWN TOWARD ROSCOMMON/GLADWIN COUNTIES.  IF SUCH A BAND
WERE TO EXIST THURSDAY MORNING IT WILL EVENTUALLY GET PUSHED EAST
WITH TIME...BUT COULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES IN SPOTS BEFORE
MOVING ON ESPECIALLY IF A LAKE INDUCED VORTEX CAN BE GENERATED IN
LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  MAY ALSO SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS WELL. DECENT PROBABILITY FOR SOME
SUN ACROSS FAR EASTERN UPPER AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST LOWER THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY CLOUD UP LATER IN THE DAY WITH
SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES GETTING ADVECTED ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  A CHILLY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY MUCH WESTERLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING AND THUS SHOULD BE THE ORIENTATION OF CONTINUING LAKE
CONVECTION.  SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.  CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY RAISES SOME CONCERNS ABOUT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY AS ADDED LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES INVERSION
HEIGHTS BACK UP TOWARD 700MB...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FOCUSED WEST-
EAST ORIENTED SNOW BAND WITH DECENT SNOWFALL RATES.  PERSISTENCE OF
SUCH A BAND IS IN QUESTION...AS IT MAY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD DEEPER
INTO EASTERN UPPER FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE
FOR 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW AROUND WHITEFISH BAY...LIGHTER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN WESTERLY BAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN LOWER.

FRIDAY...SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RETARDED
BY AGGREGATE LAKE WARMTH...BUT SHOULD PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE MORNING AND EXPECT IT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
(LAKE ENHANCED) SNOW.  COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD BURST OF SNOW AS
WELL...AND POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW TRANSIENT
THIS FEATURE IS.  FOR NOW A FORECAST OF 1-3 INCHES WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT
TO SET UP AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE EVENT ADVECTS ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES (850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -25C BY FRIDAY EVENING).
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND
WITH A BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING ANTICIPATING WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO A 330-340
DEGREE ORIENTATION.  SET UP SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR A DOMINANT TWO-LAKE
BAND THAT IMPACTS AN AREA ALONG/WEST OF THE US-131 CORRIDOR...BUT BY
THIS TIME 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW -25C WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SNOWFLAKE GROWTH PROCESSES LIKELY RESULTING IN SMALLER FLAKE SIZES
THAT ARE LESS EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...THOUGH 2-4 INCHES NOT
UNREASONABLE CENTERED AROUND GRAND TRAVERSE BAY.  BUT SMALLER FLAKES
ARE MORE PRONE TO GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY WIND GUSTS OVER 20MPH.
WIND CHILLS MAY ALSO BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NIGHT...FALLING
TOWARD ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

HEART OF THIS COLD AIR OUTBREAK WILL BE IMPACTING MICHIGAN ON
SATURDAY...AS 1044+MB ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST SATURDAY SPLITS
AROUND THE UPPER LAKES AS IT BUILDS EAST BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AS COLD AIR INVADES NEW ENGLAND.  WARM AIR RETURN FLOW
WILL START LATER SUNDAY ONCE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND WINDS CAN
SWING AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  RETURN OF WARMER AIR
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME...OR PERHAPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND COLD SATURDAY...SINGLE
DIGIT HIGHS MOST AREAS EXCEPT WEST OF M-37 IN NORTHWEST LOWER UNDER
LAKE INFLUENCE.  SOME AREAS (FAR EASTERN UPPER/HIGHER TERRAIN
NORTHERN LOWER) MAY NOT GET ABOVE ZERO.  COULD FINALLY BE A PRECIP-
FREE DAY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE/SHORT WAVE
RIDGING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE OR
MORE PASSING SYSTEMS.  MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

..MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE DAY...SOME IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT...

HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BRING PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
TVC/MBL TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY...
BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THOSE
LOCATIONS. APN/PLN WILL FARE MUCH BETTER. LIGHT BACKGROUND SNOW
WILL END THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVING VSBYS. STILL EXPECT OVERALL
MVFR CIGS TODAY ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR
CIGS A BETTER POSSIBILITY TONIGHT.

WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY THROUGH TODAY BUT DIMINISHING
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...GUSTY WINDS/BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...

GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT LEADING
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL NEARSHORE AREAS. A FEW
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE MICHIGAN...BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART.

WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY BUT MAY PICK
BACK UP AGAIN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ020-025-
     026-031-032.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ019-
     021-027-033.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM



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