360
FXUS63 KDMX 302051
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
251 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More chances for accumulating snow return to at least the
  southern half of the state on Monday. Snowfall amounts of 2 to
  4 inches are possible in southern Iowa, with amounts generally
  around an inch or less farther north.

- Cold temperatures continue through the week. Coldest
  temperatures will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning
  with wind chills in the teens below zero possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

With our weekend system departing to the east and high pressure
filling in behind, winds are diminishing over the state. With this
high pressure has come cooler air and temperatures have only reached
the upper teens to low twenties early this afternoon. Currently,
skies are mostly clear over northern Iowa and remain clouded in over
southern Iowa. This stratus deck is sitting right on the edge of the
dendritic growth zone, which has allowed for transient flurries
today. The evolution of the cloud deck through the night will impact
overnight lows, as clearer skies will allow temperatures to cool
more than cloudy skies. Stratus may fill in some, but will generally
be thin and patchy through the night, which will allow some
locations to cool considerably, especially in the north and east.
Should temperatures really drop out, some of the guidance is trying
to produce fog in northwest Iowa. However, radiation fog isn`t
typically the type of fog you expect to see with a fresh snowpack,
especially with dewpoints in the single digits.

As we get into early Monday morning, we`ll be looking at another
shot of snowfall beginning in southwest Iowa by around 6 am and
continuing over at least the southern half of the state for much of
the day. This event won`t be near the behemoth that moved through
yesterday, lacking many of the forcing mechanisms that were in place
over the weekend. The best band of frontogenetical forcing remains
well to our south in Missouri, as does any low-level/WAA component
of lift. Therefore, most of the snow will develop as a result of
broad scale lift generated by the trough, as indicated by the
stronger QG convergence in the 700mb to 500mb layer, most of which
actually falls mostly at the top of abd above the dendritic growth
zone. However, the DGZ will be fairly deep with cold vertical .
profiles, suggesting snow-to-liquid ratios will be a bit higher than
what we saw on Saturday. Cobb guidance is indicating SLRs in the
15:1 to 20:1 range, producing a fluffy and efficient snow. Will be
interesting to see how these ratios are affected by lift above the
DGZ rather than within it. The snow will also be falling
intermittently through much of the day, which will allow for more
residence time under the light to moderate snowfall. All this to
say, we could very well pick up another 2 to 4 inches of snow over
the southern half of the state on Monday, with some locations over 4
inches possible in southern Iowa. With this snowfall riding the
coattails of yesterday`s winter storm and this being the return to
school/work for many after the thanksgiving holiday, have decided to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory beginning Monday morning for
portions of southern Iowa. Fortunately, winds will be fairly light
as the snow moves through. Areas farther north into central and
north central Iowa may also see snowfall, but will be less around an
inch or less.

Snow wraps up on Monday evening with only token precipitation
chances here and there through the remainder of the week. Cold
temperatures then become the main story through the work week,
especially on Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front brings colder
temperatures down into the state. Overnight lows on Thursday night
are forecast to fall below zero, with wind chills nearing the
negative teens to near negative twenty on Thursday morning. Highs
don`t improve much on Thursday and wind chills stay in the single
digits below zero. Temperatures then "warm" slightly into
Friday as we get return flow on the backside of the high, but
still remain cool through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR stratus is beginning to give way to clear skies over
northern Iowa, while central and southern IA remain broken to
overcast around 1500 to 2000 ft. Brief flurries have been seen
under this stratus, but impacts have been isolated and
transient. There`s still some uncertainty on if stratus will
fill back in overnight, but it`s likely there will be gaps in
the deck leading to cigs fading in and out of MVFR. Have left
fog mention in over the north overnight, given the signal for
lower visibilities in guidance. That said, aside from light
winds and low pressure, dry low levels may inhibit fog. Will
continue to evaluate fog potential for tonight/Monday morning in
future issuances.

Light snow will move into southern Iowa early Monday morning and
persist through the day. This will likely impact KDSM and KOTM,
although snow as far north as KFOD and KALO can`t be ruled out.
visibilities under 2 miles and ceilings around 1000 ft looks to
accompany snowfall.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for
IAZ074-075-084>086-095>097.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for
IAZ083-092>094.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson