168
FXUS63 KDMX 030810
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
210 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries and patchy freezing drizzle are possible today,
  mainly in the morning. However, little to no accumulation is
  anticipated.

- Temperatures will fall through the day today and reach record
  cold levels by Thursday morning, with lows of 10 to 15 below
  zero over much of the area and wind chills of 15 to 25 below
  possible.

- Relatively milder temperatures will return by Friday, but a
  fairly active weather pattern will then set up through the
  weekend and into early next week, with snow chances returning
  at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

It is a relatively mild night across Iowa with temperatures
currently hovering in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, big
changes are on the way with a cold front surging southeastward
over southern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota at this time.
Ahead of the front, thick layered clouds have spread across the
region and regional radar imagery depicts some light echoes,
mainly over northeastern Iowa and neighboring states. Soundings
show layers of dry air through the column with only some shallow
moisture and modest lift, which is preventing much of the echoes
from reaching the surface, however a few observations are still
registering light snow or "unknown precipitation". Given the
shallow and relatively warm saturated layer, these may be hits
of light freezing drizzle, however no accumulation is expected
and with most roads recently treated and air temperatures
hovering near freezing, icing impacts are unlikely. Even so,
will maintain low (20% or less) chances for light
snow/flurries/freezing drizzle through this morning. As the
front sweeps across the area today it will clear out any such
light precipitation, and also bring gusty northwest winds and
much colder temperatures to the state. Have maintained a
temperature forecast close to previous updates, with Thursday
morning lows pegged in the 10 to 15 below zero range across much
of our forecast area, excepting the far south where they are 5
to 10 below. This will easily set daily record lows area wide
and make for a real slap in the face, especially this early in
the season. The winds will slowly subside tonight into Thursday
morning and be light by sunrise, but even so the air
temperatures will be so cold that wind chills of 15 to 25 below
zero are expected. Right now the forecast wind chills are close
to or just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but it is
possible an advisory may become warranted in updates later
today.

The cold area of high pressure responsible for this deep
freeze will thankfully slide away to the east Thursday and
Thursday night, bringing relatively milder temperatures back to
the region by Friday. Thereafter, a broadly cyclonic
northwesterly 500 MB flow regime will set up through the weekend
and into early next week, with a series of impulses moving
through this flow and marking a somewhat more active weather
pattern over Iowa. The first such wave may produce light snow
around Friday into Friday night, but current indications are
this should remain just to our north in Minnesota. Several
successive waves will then cross the region and may bring snow
chances to our service area at times, however, the capability of
resolving the timing and location of any such opportunities is
limited in this flow regime. Anyone with travel plans this
weekend should monitor the latest forecast updates, because
while at this time the probability of a significant snowfall
event is low, even lighter accumulations could still impact
travel conditions at times.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

High clouds remain in place across Iowa late this evening,
though MVFR ceilings are not far off across southern
Minnesota.This will expand into Iowa overnight, along with a
wind shift from out of the southwest to out of the northwest by
Wednesday. Winds on Wednesday will also gust 20-25kts across all
sites. There remains a low chance for light flurries or
freezing drizzle on Wednesday, however with plenty of dry air in
place and accumulation would be extremely limited, should it
occur at all. With low confidence in occurrence, have again kept
from TAFs at this time.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Hagenhoff