944
FXUS63 KDMX 251002
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
402 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect for the majority of central Iowa
  until 10am, then improving as winds increase and light rain
  quickly passes through.

- Becoming windy into Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning
  as much colder air arrives in the area. Wind gusts of 35-45+
  mph possible. A Wind Advisory for much of Iowa.

- Light snow accumulations expected in northern Iowa late
  tonight into Wednesday morning, with blowing snow possible as
  well.

- Highs in the 30s Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Wintry
weather is possible Friday into the weekend, however specific
details are uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Surface observations early this morning show an area of high
pressure over Iowa, with light winds and cloud cover overhead. The
light rain that moved though yesterday has generally ended early on
this morning, but this fresh moisture over Iowa, along with light
and variable winds have allowed for widespread fog to form last
night into early this morning. The majority of the CWA is reporting
visibilities around a half mile or less due to dense fog, and with
little change expected in these conditions through much of the
morning, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the greater majority
of Central Iowa, which is in effect until 10am. Increasing winds
will dissipate this fog by late morning, improving conditions.
A currently weak area of surface low pressure is still on track to
gradually deepen today, tracking eastward across the Upper Midwest.
A cold front in relation to this system is expected to arrive into
western Iowa late this morning and move eastward across the state
into the evening, which will bring at least low end chances for
additional rain showers mainly over central to eastern Iowa, with
light accumulations around a tenth or less. Of bigger interest is
what follows as the tightening system and significantly increasing
northwest winds as strong cold air advection arrives will bring
windy and chilly conditions into Iowa into Tuesday evening and
remain into Wednesday. Model soundings indicate a widespread
increasing trend in winds, with gusts at the top of the mixed layer
around 45-50 knots for much of the state, along with average values
up to 35-40 knots reaching the surface. Therefore have coordinated
an increase in coverage to the Wind Advisory to include much of
Central Iowa for this evening through early Wednesday morning, while
portions of southwest Iowa look to remain near to just below
thresholds but still quite breezy regardless.

In terms of potential precipitation with this system in the region,
the bulk of forcing with this system will be in Minnesota to
Wisconsin were more significant winter weather is looking likely
Tuesday into Wednesday morning, though conditions are looking
favorable at least for some light snow accumulations to extend down
into far northern Iowa. Models generally indicate values around an
inch across northern Iowa, though some CAMS indicate some slightly
higher amounts of 2 inches or so. The differences that exist leave
some uncertainty, but have enough confidence that some light
accumulations are looking more likely, so have increased snow values
slightly to account for this. Since gusty conditions are also
anticipated during this time, there is the potential for blowing
snow to be at least some concern, though in terms of more
significant impacts, this looks to remain further north and west of
Iowa, so any winter headlines for this time frame are not currently
expected but will continue to be closely monitored. The main thing
to keep in mind is that even light snow accumulations could be
hazardous for those traveling Wednesday morning in northern Iowa, so
please so stay tuned for updates and plan accordingly. Gusty winds
gradually decrease through Wednesday morning, then decrease further
as high pressure out of the northwestern CONUS drops into the
region, which will give Iowa a few days of quieter weather but
remaining chilly through Thanksgiving. Lows are expected in the
teens to low 20s across central Iowa, with highs only in the 30s.

All eyes turn to the post Thanksgiving forecast, as the latest
models look to be in better agreement in terms of timing and
placement with the next system that looks to bring the next chance
for more widespread winter weather into Iowa Friday afternoon to
evening, with increasing chances for accumulating snow into the
weekend. Many questions still remain though on exact timing, precip
type and amounts, so please stay tuned for more details over the
next few days as details continue to come into focus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Very low stratus and fog will persist overnight and into Tuesday
morning before slowly improving. This will result in prevailing
LIFR or VLIFR conditions at the TAFs until around 14-16Z, with
IFR thereafter and perhaps MVFR by Tuesday afternoon. Amendments
are likely overnight and Tuesday morning to refine short-term
trends in category changes. In addition, strong and gusty WNW
winds are expected late Tuesday through Tuesday night, and may
result in 20+ KT crosswinds on some runways.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>073.
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ023>028-
033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday for
IAZ074-075-084>086-095>097.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Lee