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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241727
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low RHs expected today, though with light winds

- First system coming Friday continues to slow down, with
  heaviest rain expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.
  Small severe threat exists for overnight convection in
  southern MN.

- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another
  strong system expected Sunday. This system has been trending
  stronger/wetter for the MPX area.

- Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with a very active weather
  pattern expected across the central CONUS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A surface ridge axis extending southwest from to the north of Lake
Superior into the St. Croix Valley has supplied us with a cool and
dry airmass. We`ve been watching the freezing line creep southwest
out of northern WI and the Arrowhead through the night and it still
looks likely that this will be the last widespread chance for a
frost/freeze in the MPX area for the Spring season. The median date
for the last freeze of the Spring for most of the MPX area falls in
the last week of April, so having this as the last freeze would fit
nicely into our climatology. For the rest of the today, pleasant
weather is expected, but most welcomed of all is that today will
bring us a much needed respite from the winds that have been blowing
for pretty much the entire month. We will see some RHs dipping down
into the 20-25% range for western MN and western WI, but with the
light winds expected, critical fire weather conditions are not
anticipated. The dry weather will continue into Thursday, but the
pressure gradient will tighten back up again on Thursday, bringing
the gusty winds (out of the southeast this time) back.

Friday through Monday continues to look wet. There are two distinct
shortwaves we will be dealing with on Friday night and again on
Sunday. In between, we will at least get a mostly dry day on
Saturday.

For the Friday wave, we`ve seen two trends with this system. A
slower arrival and a little less rainfall for our area (when
looking at trends in mean 24 hour QPF from the EPS). There are
two forces at play for the slower arrival. One is the dry antecedent
airmass we`ll have in place associated with a sprawling high
centered over the Great Lakes. To go along with dry air, widespread
convection is expected to develop along the strengthening LLJ to our
south Thursday night that will impede the northward progress of the
system as well. As of this morning, the surface low and associated
warm front is not expected to move into southern MN until Friday
night. Given the timing, we look to be in the decaying phase of any
severe weather that develops down toward Omaha during the day on
Friday. The overall decreasing trend in QPF can be attributed to the
fact that this system will be weakening as it moves across MN.

Our next system will eject out onto the west TX Plains on Saturday
and track north into the upper MS Valley come Sunday. This looks to
be the stronger of the 2 waves and this shows up in mean 24 hour QPF
trends from the EPS, which has been increasing across the entire area
for this system. This low looks to have a more favorable timing for
bringing a severe risk up into southern MN, although the greatest
severe risk still looks to be off to our southeast, depending on the
track/timing of the low, we could see a more substantial severe risk
sneak up into southeast MN. If you combine the QPF from both
systems, we`re look at widespread 1-2" of rain across our entire
area, with some heavier pockets pushing 4" possible.

Behind this system, we`ll cool down slightly and dry out to end
April, but as we head into the first week of May, the large scale
weather pattern looks rather intriguing. EPS mean plots show
persistent troughing developing over the western CONUS, with a
strong southern stream jet rounding the base of through across
northern Mexico and turning north out across the Plains. This large
scale pattern would favor a rather active severe weather pattern for
the central CONUS to kick off May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with a rare day
of light winds for this month. Southeasterly winds will increase
by tomorrow morning with gusts of 20-25kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR/TS. Wind SE 20-25G35 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA likely early and overnight. VFR aftn. Chc IFR/TS
overnight. Wind SW 15-20G25-30kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-RA, chance IFR. Wind NE 15-20G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dye