Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 141200
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
700 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
BIGGEST CHALLENGES BEING THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY AND THE
SKY COVER TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

WE THINK THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE
IS ALSO MUCH DRIER 1000-850MB AIR SHOWING UP WITH THE COLD ADVECTION
IN NORTHERN MN AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME. THE STRATUS
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE STUBBORN IN NORTHEAST MN AND IN WISCONSIN WHERE
THE CU RULE OFF THE NAM/RUC REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES. THE DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
ALSO SUGGEST A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...BUT THAT IS JUST WHAT WE
ARE DOING. TYPICALLY WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...IN MID APRIL...WITH
NO SNOW ON THE GROUND...YOU ARE CRAZY TO FORECAST UNDER 40 DEGREES
/NORMAL HIGHS ARE 55-57/...HOWEVER...THIS AIR MASS IS UNUSUAL WITH
GREATER THAN -2SD 850MB TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPS WILL LIKELY END UP
BETWEEN -9C AND -12C BY THE AFTERNOON. WE THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT
OF UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WITH THE EXPECTED MIXING TO 725MB OFF
THE NAM/GFS...OUR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR JUST HITTING 40 LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE METRO OR IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MN. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL THAT WARM WITH A STIFF
NORTHWEST WIND BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES
ARE RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES FOR THE TWIN CITIES METRO...ST. CLOUD
AND EAU CLAIRE. WE WENT BACK AND LOOKED AT ALL THE RECORD COLD HIGHS
FROM APRIL 10 AND APRIL 20...EXPECTING TO SEE A LOT OF SNOW COVER ON
THESE COLD DAYS...BUT THERE WERE A SURPRISING NUMBER OF RECORD LOW
MAX TEMPERATURES THAT OCCURRED WITH ZERO OR TRACE SNOW DEPTH. THIS
GIVES US MORE CONFIDENCE TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S TODAY EVEN WITH
ALL THE BROWN GROUND OUT THERE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WE`LL START OFF QUITE COLD AND MOSTLY
CLEAR TUESDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR (-15C AT 850H
ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF) IS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND THIS
FEATURE IS THE ONE TO WATCH FOR BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW INTO OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY
WITH THE LINGERING POLAR AIR...BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INLAND...LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE...WHICH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONTANA TUESDAY...AND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL TILT BACK AND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TURN MORE TO A STRAIGHT EAST DIRECTION...RATHER
THAN SOUTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A 700H LOW BECOMES DEFINED NORTH
OF SIOUX FALLS AND WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF MOVES ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS THINKING RELIES MOSTLY ON THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH HANDLING THIS
TROUGH. THE NAM TRIES A LOT HARDER TO MAKE THIS WAVE BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND IN TURN SLOW DOWN. STEERED CLEAR OF THE
NAM SOLUTION AS THE GFS/EC AGREED BETTER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAVE. THE MODELS ARE NOT TO THE POINT OF CONVERGING ON ONE
SOLUTION OR ANOTHER...LEAVING SOME DISAGREEMENT TO BE SORTED
OUT. REGARDLESS...THE MODELS STILL WANT TO PRECIPITATE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
SHOWN ACROSS THE BOARD FOR NUMEROUS MODEL RUNS. STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION...AND LIFT ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE IN HIGH
GEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THETA-E ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE VERY STRONG ACROSS THE FA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG F-GEN SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE A HEAVIER MESOSCALE BAND OF
SNOW. BEING OVER 48 HOURS AWAY THOUGH...THE PLACEMENT OF THE F-GEN
BAND IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...SO THAT IS WHERE MODEL CONVERGENCE
WILL COME IN TO PLAY FOR COMING FORECAST SHIFTS. INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK EXPECTED AND THERMAL PROFILE...THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF AN
EAST-WEST LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH ST. CLOUD...EVEN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...DECREASED THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR PRECIPITATION
MOVING IN DURING THE DAYTIME ACROSS THIS AREA...AND BEING ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE FA ARE NOW IN THE LOW 30S AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW ALL (OR MOSTLY) SNOW REACH THE GROUND. ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE OTHER HAND...TEMPERATURES WERE
INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR BEING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. UPPED FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE BOTH
IN THE FORCING/MOISTURE FIELDS...AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. 2-5" OF
SNOW IS NOW IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF AND ALONG A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA THROUGH ST. CLOUD...CHISAGO...AND BLOOMER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE MOVED ON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERING IN WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE`LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
A SYSTEM THAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES THROUGH THE MIDWEST TOWARD
CHICAGO...AND TRIES TO GRAZE THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
FA. BEYOND THAT...A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE FOR THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

BESIDES MVFR IN WEST CENTRAL WI EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND BLUSTERY N-NW WINDS.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. WINDS W 5-10 KT...BECOMING E/NE BY EVENING.
WED...MVFR WITH RA/SN LIKELY. WINDS E 10-20 KT...BECOMING N-NE.
THU...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS WITH RA/SN. WINDS NE 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF







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