


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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972 FXUS63 KMPX 080027 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 727 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower & thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening. Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of severe weather across western MN. - Next chance of Thunderstorms & Showers arrives Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Current obs highlight temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Winds remain light & variable but will begin to increase & take on a southerly or southwesterly direction this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies with a band of Cu from St Cloud down to the I-90 corridor. Further upstream is a cluster of bubbly Cu tied to an intensifying thunderstorm along the MN/SD border. This area of thunderstorms will require monitoring over the next several hours as it enters W MN. Hires guidance has struggled a bit to capture the morning convection ongoing over the Dakotas likely causing a later arrival time into W MN than reality. Latest HRRR appears to have initialized better than previous runs & has the ongoing thunderstorms. The general theme is for a cluster of thunderstorms to eventually congeal into an MCS somewhere between far E SD and W MN before tracking into west-central and southern Minnesota this afternoon. These should be able to further intensify as they move into W MN. Forecast soundings from the HRRR highlight 1000-2000 J/Kg CAPE, 35 kts+ effective shear, & modest lapse rates (6.0-6.5 C/km). A marginal but sufficient convective environment that`ll limit the higher end potential of any severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary severe concern is driven by potential for damaging winds this afternoon. This threat is increased if storms are manage to organize into an MCS & sustain a strong enough cold pool without it surging ahead of the complex. IF it can sustain it`s cold pool & not choke itself out - there will likely be a legitimate severe wind threat into C MN this afternoon & evening. What are the limiting factor`s? Well the earlier timing could limit how much additional instability builds downstream over central & southern Minnesota. This would limit the longevity of the thunderstorms/MCS as they trek eastward through the afternoon & evening hours. This is good news for those in the Twin Cities & locations east - the threat should remain in west/southwest/central MN. SPC day 1 SWO upgraded FAR western Minnesota into an Enhanced risk while trimming back the Slight & Marginal risks. PoPs gradually decrease this evening across E MN & W WI, matching the weakening trend of any convection. QPF amounts for 0.10" to 0.25" in the Twin Cities and along & east of I- 35. Tuesday through Sunday... the weather pattern will be fairly quiet over the next several days. Our next chance for rain/thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty of the exact evolution but there has been a persistent signal for a more widespread rain event. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through Friday. Cooler temperatures will follow the rain chances for the upcoming weekend, which is reflected in the NBM with highs in the 70s. The pattern seems to continue through mid July with a stretch of 2-4 days of typical Summer heat & humidity, 1-2 days of rain/storm threat, then 1-3 days of slightly less humid Summer weather. We`re entering the time of year where our precipitation averages begin to decrease week over week so it wouldn`t be too surprising if things end up slightly drier by mid month. Fortunately, there doesn`t appear to be any significant heat on the horizon either. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 TSRA chances are best at MKT. It`s questionable if rain survives into WI, so kept WI terminals dry. Tonight, skies will clear out and winds will go calm as a surface high moves in. RAP soundings support fog/stratus development tonight, though there`s low confidence on when/where fog/stratus will form tonight, though if you got rain, you`re chances for fog are better for tonight. For now, covered this threat with some tempo groups. After any fog threat in the morning, nothing but light NW winds and fair weather cu. KMSP...Well just as this was being written, a congested cu field over the metro decided to initiate convection. However, this convection started out too far east to directly impact the field, MSP just gets the decaying showers moving into the west metro. For tonight, we`ll have to watch the potential development of any fog/stratus to see if there will be potential at MSP. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts. THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...MPG