


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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918 FXUS63 KMPX 081100 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather through Wednesday. Some patchy fog this morning with an isolated shower possible in WI this afternoon. - Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Some patchy fog has developed overnight across parts of central MN. It hasn`t been persistent in most locations, which points to an unlikelihood of becoming widespread and dense. Light southwest winds are also helping it struggle to develop further. Any remaining fog by dawn will quickly burn off and fair wx cu will form late morning. Modest surface-based instability over Wisconsin could foster development of this cu into showers or isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight and Wednesday will be tranquil with surface high pressure in place. Off to the west, upslope flow across the high Plains with passing mid level disturbances should initiate convection over the western Dakotas Wednesday afternoon. This activity will continue east on the leading edge of an EML and eventually on the nose of a strengthening LLJ Wednesday night. Most guidance dives this convection southeast into western Iowa overnight, but it`s possible some showers and storms could overspread parts of southern and western Minnesota. The evolution of that could play into Thursday`s chances for convection. It appears the overnight activity should keep the surface front suppressed to the southwest for much of the day, with warm air advection and a persistent LLJ likely keeping convection active across Iowa. By Thursday night, a shortwave trough over the central Plains will lift northeast while a larger trough over the northern Rockies/northern Plains begins to approach from the west. This should lead to thunderstorm chances increasing farther north in our area, but as is typical with convective events, confidence is generally low at this range and mesoscale details will ultimately determine the outcome. Nevertheless, the two troughs will interact and eventually phase with each other over the Upper Midwest Thursday night and Friday when thunderstorm chances increase. Pwats nearing 2 inches and synoptic forcing with the trough should lead to widespread showers and storms and the risk for heavy rainfall. QPF on some guidance is quite impressive, especially from those that develop slow-moving MCVs from remnant convection. The trough will kick east for the weekend. After a cool Saturday in the 70s, some ridging returns early next week with temperatures returning to near or just above normal levels. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Patchy fog is ongoing, but it isn`t persistent in any one spot very long. A larger LIFR bank of fog and stratus across west central and northwest MN is building south. On its current trajectory, it will reach AXN between 1245-1300Z. Confidence is low with how long it will persist until lifting and scattering, but how extensive it is on satellite would suggest at least a couple hours at AXN. KMSP...Fog has remained away this morning. Scattered CU expected to develop this afternoon. Otherwise, no concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts. THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff