972
FXUS63 KMPX 080027
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower & thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening.
  Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of severe weather across western MN.

- Next chance of Thunderstorms & Showers arrives Thursday night
  into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Current obs highlight temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s with
dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Winds remain light &
variable but will begin to increase & take on a southerly or
southwesterly direction this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery
reveals mostly clear skies with a band of Cu from St Cloud down to
the I-90 corridor. Further upstream is a cluster of bubbly Cu tied
to an intensifying thunderstorm along the MN/SD border. This area of
thunderstorms will require monitoring over the next several hours as
it enters W MN.

Hires guidance has struggled a bit to capture the morning convection
ongoing over the Dakotas likely causing a later arrival time into W
MN than reality. Latest HRRR appears to have initialized
better than previous runs & has the ongoing thunderstorms. The
general theme is for a cluster of thunderstorms to eventually
congeal into an MCS somewhere between far E SD and W MN before
tracking into west-central and southern Minnesota this afternoon.
These should be able to further intensify as they move into W MN.
Forecast soundings from the HRRR highlight 1000-2000 J/Kg CAPE, 35
kts+ effective shear, & modest lapse rates (6.0-6.5 C/km). A
marginal but sufficient convective environment that`ll limit the
higher end potential of any severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The
primary severe concern is driven by potential for damaging winds
this afternoon. This threat is increased if storms are manage to
organize into an MCS & sustain a strong enough cold pool without it
surging ahead of the complex. IF it can sustain it`s cold pool & not
choke itself out - there will likely be a legitimate severe wind
threat into C MN this afternoon & evening. What are the limiting
factor`s? Well the earlier timing could limit how much additional
instability builds downstream over central & southern Minnesota.
This would limit the longevity of the thunderstorms/MCS as they
trek eastward through the afternoon & evening hours. This is good
news for those in the Twin Cities & locations east - the threat
should remain in west/southwest/central MN. SPC day 1 SWO upgraded
FAR western Minnesota into an Enhanced risk while trimming back the
Slight & Marginal risks. PoPs gradually decrease this evening across
E MN & W WI, matching the weakening trend of any convection. QPF
amounts for 0.10" to 0.25" in the Twin Cities and along & east of I-
35.

Tuesday through Sunday... the weather pattern will be fairly quiet
over the next several days. Our next chance for rain/thunderstorms
will be late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty of the
exact evolution but there has been a persistent signal for a more
widespread rain event. High temperatures will remain in the low to
mid 80s through Friday. Cooler temperatures will follow the rain
chances for the upcoming weekend, which is reflected in the NBM with
highs in the 70s. The pattern seems to continue through mid July
with a stretch of 2-4 days of typical Summer heat & humidity, 1-2
days of rain/storm threat, then 1-3 days of slightly less humid
Summer weather. We`re entering the time of year where our
precipitation averages begin to decrease week over week so it
wouldn`t be too surprising if things end up slightly drier by mid
month. Fortunately, there doesn`t appear to be any significant heat
on the horizon either.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

TSRA chances are best at MKT. It`s questionable if rain survives
into WI, so kept WI terminals dry. Tonight, skies will clear
out and winds will go calm as a surface high moves in. RAP
soundings support fog/stratus development tonight, though
there`s low confidence on when/where fog/stratus will form
tonight, though if you got rain, you`re chances for fog are
better for tonight. For now, covered this threat with some tempo
groups. After any fog threat in the morning, nothing but light
NW winds and fair weather cu.

KMSP...Well just as this was being written, a congested cu field
over the metro decided to initiate convection. However, this
convection started out too far east to directly impact the
field, MSP just gets the decaying showers moving into the west
metro. For tonight, we`ll have to watch the potential
development of any fog/stratus to see if there will be potential
at MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts.
FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG