000
FXUS63 KMPX 041124
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
524 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT.  WILL
HOLD ONTO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
MAY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

LOCAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A NICE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA NOW.  THIS WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING
OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

FOLLOWED A GFS/ECMWF BLEND OVERALL...ALTHOUGH ALL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVERALL.  THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE
VERY SIMILAR WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE MODEL
RUNS UN TO NOW.  THEY REMAIN THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...SO WILL
LINGER SOME HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS.  THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION/RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW OVER A PORTION
OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY.  THE SNOW WILL
TRANSITION TO THE MIX BY NOON AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA.  THE HEAVIER SNOW/HIGHER QPF IS DISPLACED
A BIT BETWEEN MODELS...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PLACEMENT WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN BY AFTERNOON.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AND INCREASING GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY.  AS THE ARCTIC AIR FILTERS
IN IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW...WE SHOULD SEE SOME GUSTS
APPROACH AT LEAST 30 KTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL DEVELOP CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW INTO
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IF THE WINDS COINCIDE WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT FALLING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE WINTER STORM WILL HAVE WINDED DOWN BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LINGERING
FLURRIES...THE SNOWFALL SHOULD BE OVER. A VERY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL YIELD BLUSTERY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND RESULTANT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LLVL
COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT FROM AROUND
5 ABOVE /WEST CENTRAL MN/...TO 10 ABOVE /EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MN/...TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 /WEST CENTRAL WI/. THE BRISK WINDS AND
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO YIELD DAYTIME WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 20 BELOW ON THURSDAY. FURTHERMORE...LOWS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN ZERO AND 10 BELOW...AND WHILE
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER...OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PLUMMET
TO BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 30 BELOW BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH 850MB FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
MODERATION FROM SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE RANGE TO
SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE 5 ABOVE TO 15 ABOVE RANGE. THE LLVL FLOW
TRANSITION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY...AND THEREFORE SNOWFALL CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME NOTABLE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT POTENTIAL
FOR A QUICK SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO FEATURE REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 15 TO
30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

OVERALL...MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.  IFR/OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVIER
SNOW APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 14Z-19Z OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE AREA...AND GRADUALLY LIFTING/EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH 00Z- 03Z. MIXED PRECIPITATION AROUND KEAU DURING THE
DAY...AS THEY REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF WARMER AREA OF AIR. THIS WILL
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS SOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...WHICH
AREAS TO BE AROUND 00Z.5. AS SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO GUSTS 25-30KTS POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS MAY GENERATE
SOME BLSN CONDITIONS IN THE KRWF/KAXN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THIS CONDITION INTO THE EVENING. KEPT MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH -SN
ENDING AFTER O7Z.5 AT MOST TAF SITES.


KMSP...EXPECTING IFR-OR-WORSE CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST PORTION
OF THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR 14Z-19Z PERIOD...THEN
SLOWLY IMPROVING VSBYS INTO THE EVENING. COULD SEE THREE
QUARTERS/1 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL RATES SOMETIME DURING THIS
HEAVIER SNOW PERIOD. WENT MVFR DEVELOPING AROUND 02Z WITH SNOW
ENDING AFTER 06Z.5. EXPECT EAST WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST WITH
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEY WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER 02Z AS WELL.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THU AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS PSBL. NW WIND 10-20 KT.
THU NIGHT...VFR. W WIND 5-15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS PSBL. W WIND 5-15 KT.
FRI NIGHT...VFR. W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SAT...VFR. VARIABLE WIND 5 KT OR LESS.

KMSP...

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ069-070-
     076>078-082>085-091.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>068-073>075.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ092-093.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ024>028.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ014>016-023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE