000
FXUS63 KMPX 040533
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1133 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE END RESULT WILL BE MULTIPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST ROUND IS
COMMENCING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL MN...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GENERALLY
EXPECT ONE HALF TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH THIS ROUND.

03.12Z AND 03.18Z MODELS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A SECONDARY
BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN IA BETWEEN
00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING...THEN EXPANDING NORTHEAST INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI. THIS QUICK BURST OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOULD
PRODUCE ONE HALF TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS FROM THE INTERSTATE 90
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN TO THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES AND
EAU CLAIRE WI.

BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE OVER WITH...BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT SNOW WILL
LIKELY FALL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THE ACCUMULATIONS /LIGHT/ SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 12 IN MN. THE HIGHER AMOUNTS /APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

MUCH MORE TOLERABLE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT THANKS
TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 2 BELOW
TO 5 ABOVE RANGE. HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WHILE STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY MARCH...WILL MODERATE INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

SPLIT...ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS LEAVING
THE MIDWEST DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF TIME.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AN AREA OF SNOW WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
SATURATION...BUT AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER THE SPLIT FLOW WILL RESULT
IN FAIRLY LIGHT WIND PROFILE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE THE QG
FORCING WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL...SO AS ONE WOULD EXPECT THERE IS
NOT MUCH LIFT IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE. NONE THE LESS HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE INCREASE
POPS AND COULD FORESEE RAMPING THEM UP TO 100 PERCENT IF THE 00Z
MODEL RUNS REMAIN ON TRACK. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH.

IN THE MEAN TIME...SEVERAL STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL CRASH
ONSHORE THE COAST OF WA/OR. NEARLY A FOOT OF LIQUID PRECIP WILL
RING OUT AS THE AIR IS FORCED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. AS THE DRY AIR
DESCENDS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IT WILL
COMPRESS...WARM...AND ADVECT EASTWARD RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 40 ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE FOR
THURSDAY...LOWER 30S FOR EASTERN MN...AND UPPER 20S FOR WESTERN
WI. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH COOLER AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 03.12 GFS AND ECMWF ARE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND BRING THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH WOULD BEGIN TO PUT A DENT IN
THE EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WARMUP...SO FLOODING IS OF NO
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF -SN THIS EVENING...ONE OVER CENTRAL MN AND
ANOTHER OVER SRN MN...HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE LINGERING MASS OF
-SN OVER SERN MN INTO SWRN WI AND WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN FOR
THE TAF SITES. BY 04/06Z...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR SO HAVE
INITIALIZED AS SUCH. AM CONCERNED THAT ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
STARTS OUT AS A VARIETY OF MVFR/IFR CONDS WHILE OBS ALL SHOW
VFR... SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT GREAT FOR CEILING HEIGHTS THRU
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TDA. HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR AFTER 12Z FOR ALL
SITES...BUT WILL NEED TO SEE IF THIS IS A LITTLE OVER-AMBITIOUS.
MODELS TO AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THRU THE AREA...
PRODUCING -SN FOR CENTRAL-SRN MN INTO WRN WI LATE TDA INTO THIS
EVE. HAVE AGAIN INTRODUCED MVFR CONDS WITH THE -SN...BUT THIS CAN
AGAIN EASILY CONTAIN VSBY IN IFR RANGE. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT...BACKING FROM SE TO ENE TNGT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF THIS 04/06Z SET...STARTING OUT AS
VFR THEN BRINGING IN MVFR CIGS BY LATE TMRW MRNG. EVEN THAT MAY
NEED TO BE IMPROVED BECAUSE MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN SUCH
CEILINGS AT INITIALIZATION AND THAT CERTAINLY IS NOT THE CASE
CURRENTLY. NEXT ROUND OF -SN ARRIVES LATE TMRW AFTN THRU TMRW
EVE...ANOTHER FEW BANDS OF -SHSN AND -SN THAT WILL HAVE VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATION AND MEAGER VSBY RESTRICTION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
THU...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN. WINDS S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN EARLY. WINDS N 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC