Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 190900
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE IS A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS TRANSVERSING THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
QUICKLY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE MN/SD BORDER BY
SUNRISE - NEARING THE MN/WI BORDER BY THE LUNCH HOUR AND PUSHING OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL BEFORE SUNSET. THIS MEANS THAT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING PEAK HEATING. BREEZY
W-SW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKELY ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER FROM WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN
COULD APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. GIVEN THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
THIS BRIEF WARM-UP. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF A
HIGH-BASED STRATUS DECK IN NORTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI BEFORE THE
NOON HOUR...BUT THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COOL MORNING TO START OFF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING...500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATE UPPER TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
EAST OF US BY THEN /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THIS LOW FOR A
PORTION OF MONDAY...BUT OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY
TUESDAY...WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND THE
RIDGE EXPANDING AND MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPS WILL BE WARMEST ACROSS
WESTERN MN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL RIDGE WHICH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WELL IN TO THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OUT WEST...BUT JUST LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
COMING ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
AS IT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
HOWEVER...WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON ITS EVOLUTION. THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND CUT OFF ALONG THE COAST AND STALL THERE FOR
INTO FRIDAY. WITH ITS PRESENCE... THE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE
STEERED NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND BOTH THE GFS
AND EC AGREE IN A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SO STUCK WITH CHANCE
POPS IN THIS PERIOD FOR NOW. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE
WE`LL SEE MORE UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR TAKING OVER. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS TO KEEP ANY FOG FORMATION UNDER
CONTROL...HOWEVER...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED
QUICKLY IN WISCONSIN...SO SOME FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

KMSP...

VFR WITH NO WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AND INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10G15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 10G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...CLF






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