Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Issued at 843 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Updated to include 06Z aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main forecast concern in the near term is the flurry threat into
the early evening over the eastern cwa.

Still seeing some light snow/flurries drifting east in the
isentropic lift/lower level waa pattern...mainly affecting the
eastern cwa. We expect this to continue to dry up...and perhaps
linger a few flurries into western Wisconsin early this evening.
Then clearing is expected into western Wisconsin after midnight.
High pressure remains in control with light winds...and we should
see temepratures drop off to at least the 5 below to 5 above range
overnight.  Winds will remain rather light so we dont anticipate any
wind chill concerns.

Sunshine is expected into the day Saturday with perhaps some high
clouds streaming over the southern portion of the area. We expect
highs to remain on the cool side...with readings from 15 to 20.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The main forecast concentrations are the Sunday night-Monday
system and a January thaw slated for the end of next week.

Temps continue to warm on Sunday with highs area-wide in the low
to mid 20s. Models are still struggling to decipher how northern
and southern streams will phase for the start of next week. The
13.12z GFS came in much stronger with the northern stream wave,
and blasted it southeast across the Upper Midwest, which would
mean the precip type for the event would be snow. Conversely, the
13.12z ECMWF has not given up on the influence of the southern
stream, and therefore is warmer with the thermal profiles and
features freezing rain over southern MN with the warm advection
band Sunday night into Monday, followed by a changeover to snow
area-wide Monday afternoon/eve. The temperature differences in the
models also affect snow ratios, so confidence on snow amounts is
still low at this point, although both solutions would yield at
least a few inches in some portion of the forecast area. Will hold
off on a headline at this point given the high amount of
uncertainty due to the large model discrepancies.
n advisory
What is much more certain is the warming trend in temperatures for
the latter portion of next week, as a mid level ridge builds over
the western conus and westerly flow aloft filters across the north
central CONUS. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s will
prevail Wednesday and Thursday, with 40s looking likely for


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 843 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Reasoning remains the same as earlier forecast with VFR conditions
expected through the period. The only modification was to delay
the departure of current VFR ceilings across eastern sites to
better line up with observed trends and RAP/HRRR/GLAMP guidance.

KMSP...VFR ceilings will give way to clear skies overnight. No
concerns, and confidence is high overall.

Sunday...VFR. South wind less than 10 kt.
Sunday night...MVFR expected late with a chance of snow or mixed
precipitation. Southeast wind less than 10 kt.
Monday...IFR. Snow likely... mixed precipitation possible.
Southeast wind around 10 kt becoming east.
Monday night...IFR. Snow likely early. Northeast wind 5 to 15 kt
becoming north.
Tuesday...MVFR... IFR possible. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt.
Tuesday night...VFR. West wind 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest.




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