Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250309
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Conditions this afternoon were more critical in terms of fire
weather as winds were gusting over 30 mph, along with humidity
levels in the teens and 20s. Although SPC fire weather page
highlighted our region, recent rainfall has kept most of the
vegetation moist and only concerns were grass fires that could
spread quicker. These winds will quickly abate by early evening,
alleviating the fire weather concern.

There was a weak disturbance that developed across Nebraska last
night and moved northeast across southern Minnesota this afternoon.
Due to the very dry atmosphere below 5k, all of the rainfall was
light and almost all of the precipitation did not measure. This will
also be the weather story tonight with a chance of showers or
sprinkles. Coverage will be isolated to scattered, but any
measurable rainfall should remain in central and northern Minnesota
where the depth of the moisture is higher.

A cold front was noted across the eastern Dakotas this afternoon.
This front will move across western Minnesota this evening, and into
eastern Minnesota by sunrise. However, a secondary storm system will
develop across the plains overnight, and move along this frontal
boundary on Tuesday. Initially, most areas will remain dry through
mid morning. This will be short-lived as moisture and energy along
this storm system in the plains will move northeast and overspread
southern Minnesota by noon, and across the rest of central
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin by the late afternoon.
Highs on Tuesday may be reached Tuesday morning as steadier rainfall
develops in the afternoon and drops temperatures in the rain cooled
air.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Rain will quickly advance northeastward across the region Tuesday
evening. A band of locally heavy rain will be possible near the
immediate cool side of the SSW-NNE orientated boundary, likely
stretching from Mankato to east central MN and northwest WI where
low level convergence will be maximized. WPC has highlighted this
area in a marginal risk of flooding as well. Could see 1-2 inches
in that corridor with a general 0.25-0.75" elsewhere. The
steadiest rain will lift northeast of the area later Tuesday
night, with showers lingering across central MN and western WI
into Wednesday. Another period of steadier rain is possible across
WI Wednesday into Thursday as another wave lifts up from the
Plains/Rockies trough. The ECMWF actually brings another
deformation band of rain as far west as MN, similar to the GEM
Wednesday in response to a more negatively tilted system. While
this is possible, it appears unlikely at the moment with a more
favored positively tilted trough and a narrow band of heavy
rainfall from MO up through eastern WI.

Following the final wave, it looks dry for the rest of the week,
although fairly cloudy and cool with the cyclonic flow lingering.
Models have come into better agreement for next weekend (at least
for now) in keeping much of the energy with a new western trough
to the south. Still looks like the southern and eastern portions
of the area still have a decent shot at precip, but it doesn`t
look like the widespread soaking rains that had been advertised
previously. However, wouldn`t be surprised to see things change
again with consistency toward the end of the period being quite
poor recently.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Only changes to the 06z taf was to delay the onset of MVFR cigs
across far east central Minnesota, and into west central
Wisconsin until mid/late morning, or Tuesday afternoon. The
remainder of west central/southwest and central Minnesota will
have MVFR/IFR cigs developing overnight, with LIFR cigs likely
near KAXN for a few hrs. The other change to these tafs was to
delay the onset of -SHRA/-RA until mid/late afternoon for most
sites. Only KRWF will have the best chance of -SHRA before 18z,
with most of MPX taf sites having the bulk of the steadier
rainfall after 21z. Once the precipitation begins, expect
cigs/vsbys to lower to IFR/LIFR at times. A cold front has moved
into west central Minnesota late this evening. This front will
move eastward and stall near the Minnesota/Wisconsin border by
morning.

KMSP...

Kept the MVFR cig development close to previous taf with an hour
or two delay. However, once precipitation develops, cigs/vsbys
will drop to IFR conditions by the afternoon, and continue through
the evening. Winds will hold from the south around 8 kts
overnight, then become light and variable through noon before
shifting to the east/northeast by the afternoon and increasing in
speed.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...MVFR, IFR possible. -RA likely early, mixed with -sn late.
Winds NE 10-20 kts.

Thu...MVFR, IFR possible. Chc -RA/-SN early.
Winds N 5-15 kt bcmg light & variable.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT



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