Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 301200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Isentropic upglide continues across southern MN and west central
WI, but it is weakening. Short term models suggest spotty light
rain should really taper off in most areas after 15z, with just
southeast MN into the Eau Claire area still seeing a chance of
light rain through the afternoon.

Abundant cloud cover will remain across virtually all of the
forecast area this morning, with some dry air starting to filter
into central MN around midday. But southern MN looks to remain
cloudy most of the day. Thus the coolest temps today will be in
the southern half of our area.

Low pressure in eastern Kansas is pretty much vertically stacked,
but it does make slow progress to the east. As it reaches the area
to our south-southeast, drier air is able to begin filtering into
central and west central MN where partial clearing is expected.
This may open the door to radiational fog with light winds amid
surface ridge across northern MN. That will need to be watched.
Otherwise, relatively quiet weather tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

The long term concerns remain model handling of the continuing
split flow pattern across the conus. How much interaction with the
two stream flows will determine the sensible weather for the area.

Initially we should see clouds gradually decrease during the day
Friday. This should promote some warming with highs warming
through the 50s.

Following this system...the timing of the next short wave trough
brings the threat of rain to the area later Saturday night to the
southwest and over much of the cwa Sunday into Sunday night.
Moisture appears mainly shunted to the south with some
interaction/phasing of the northern and southern stream systems.
This will likely slow overall precipitation trend a bit. With
abundant cloud cover expected...especially to the east...highs
may be tempered somewhat...but we still see 50s.

The ECMWF and GFS along with the Canadian models all bring in a
more significant wave across the central conus in the Tue/Wed
time frame. This system has the potential to lift more moisture
north and how much cold air is supplied for the developing surface
low...could see the potential for some snow across at least parts
of the cwa. The CIPS analog hazard guidance was indicating at
least a chance(30-50%) of > 2 inches of snow across the central
and east. Of course...this is all conditional with the boundary
layer temperatures even more sensitive now that Spring has
arrived. Brief cooling is expected to follow this storm system for
late next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Main concern is mvfr ceilings in most areas, with even a bit of
ifr ceilings at this time in far southern mn. Low pressure to our
south will take its time moving east, meaning that ceilings will
be slow to improve. Latest rap has been doing pretty well with the
low level moisture, and with drier air poised just to our
northeast, timing the improvement comes with only a modest amount
of confidence. the most likely scenario is for the improvement to
take place late this morning, then vfr with bases around 040-050
by early to mid afternoon.



Ceiling is close to the 1700 foot agl as of 12z, and it will
likely go above 1700 in the next 2-3 hours, and then to 040 or so
early-mid afternoon. Main question will be tonight. Some guidance
hints at bringing celings back to mvfr tonight as the upper low
slides southeast of Minnesota. But it looks more likely that any
mvfr ceilings tonight will remain to the southeast.

Fri...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.
Sun...VFR. Chc -ra. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.




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