Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KMPX 290009 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS PUSHED 850H TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE FA. WHILE MUCH OF THE ECHOES SEEN
ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON WERE VIRGA...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP DID
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. AMOUNTS WERE 0.01" OR LESS...AND THAT WAS
A COMBINATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET THANKS TO THE WARM AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE ONLY REMAINING PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WAS NORTH OF THE METRO AND IN WESTERN WI. THIS SCATTERED PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE BIG STORY AFTER THE
LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TODAY IS THE CONTINUED WARMING WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOKING TO GO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILES...AND AS INDICATED IN THE AVIATION PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION...CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND CEILING POTENTIAL IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT...THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE SEEING DECREASING RH VALUES AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. A STRONG INVERSION WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY FORM TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PINPOINTING HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AND IF IT WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE EITHER LOW STRATUS OR FOG MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT
FORECAST. STILL THINKING THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT FOG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING OVER THE
PRESENT SNOW PACK TO HELP SATURATE THE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE...SO
AS ADVERTISED IN RECENT DAYS...EXPECTING TO SEE FOG THERE. WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...AND SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF THE FA BY 00Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

A POTENT CDFNT STRETCHING BETWEEN TWO SEPARATING LOW PRES CENTERS
- ONE MOVING EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SERN CANADA
AND A SECOND MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS - WILL PUSH THRU
THE REGION SAT NIGHT. BECAUSE THE ENERGY BETWEEN THE LOW PRES
CENTERS WILL BECOME MORE STRETCHED OUT AND WEAKENED...LESS FORCING
WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR ANY PRECIP PRODUCTION SO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
REMOVE POPS FROM THE FCST. ARCTIC HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE CDFNT
WILL RESULT IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN THRU MON NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL FALL TO THE TEENS ON SUNDAY AND TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE VERY STRONG. HIGH PRES SHIFTING EWD BY TUE WILL
ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WHILE MORE PREVALENT
LLVL SLY COMPONENTS DEVELOP. THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW DOES LOOK TO
ALLOW ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SLIP THRU THE REGION TUE INTO
WED...BUT THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TOO STRIATED AND WEAK TO
PRODUCE PRECIP SO HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HIGH PRES THEN
RETURNS WED-FRI TO KEEP A PRECIP-FREE FCST GOING. HIGHS WILL
SLOWLY WARM THRU THE 20S BUT AM NOT LOOKING TO HAVE ANY PERIODS
REACH THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THIS EXTENDED FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE...WITH FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET HEADED EAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WARM FRONT
DOWN TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE
I-90 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT MAY
ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...BEFORE
POTENTIALLY ADVECTING NORTH AS IFR/LIFR STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NEBRASKA MAY LIMIT THE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN IOWA WHICH WOULD MEAN A MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THIS AREA. GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN TERMS OF
CIGS AND VSBYS...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH EITHER WAY. PLAYED
TOWARD THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW UNTIL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
AND TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

KMSP...VFR FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN FOG AND/OR STRATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES TOWARD
THE PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS NW AT 5-10KTS...BECOMING S LATE.
TUE...VFR. WINDS S AT 15G20KTS...BECOMING W.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...BORGHOFF






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.