Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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767
FXUS63 KMPX 242213
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface low nearly over
KORD with its trailing cold front extending SSW into the ArkLaTex
region. High pressure sagging south from central Canada extends
well into the Northern Plains. Aloft, a pivoting upper level
trough is swinging through the area and will shift atop Lake
Michigan by daybreak tomorrow morning. The modest northwest flow
over the international border will bring in the surface high for
the weekend, drying out the atmosphere and producing a mix of sun
and clouds for tomorrow. Before we get to that point, there is
still snow ongoing in the far southeastern MN and southwestern WI
portions of the WFO MPX coverage area. Winds are still in the
15-25 mph range while the snowfall intensity has gradually
diminished. Thus, while Blizzard conditions are no longer
expected, there still may well likely be some blowing/drifting and
visibility issues for those areas, including parts of I-35 and
I-94 well SE of the Twin Cities. This snowfall will gradually
diminish through the evening, resulting in potentially up to an
additional 2-3 inches in those far eastern areas. Otherwise, as
mentioned above, conditions will improve overnight through the day
tomorrow, with the colder air remaining in place. Lows tonight
will be the coldest the area has experienced in some time as
minimum temperatures drop into the teens, which are actually
normal values for late February. Highs on Saturday will then hold
in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 408 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

On Saturday night, at trough of low pressure pushing east across
North Dakota will bring some light snow to northern MN, grazing
central MN north of I-94. This will be a fast-moving system and
any accumulation in central MN will be under an inch, so little
has changed with the forecast with this wave.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Monday Night-
Tuesday when a strong system is expected to develop and affect the
Upper-Midwest.  At this stage, the track of the surface low varies
quite a bit, as does exact timing.  Still, we continue to feel
confident enough to go with 60% chance of precipitation for
eastern MN and western WI during this period. The latest
guidance cooled the system some with cooler air in place from the
north, but daytime highs still dictate p-type for now. You`ll
notice the forecast calls for a combination of rain and snow,
following a diurnal trend Monday night through Tuesday.

As we head into early March, a northwesterly flow jet stream will
setup across our area, meaning the pattern will be favorable for
fast moving clipper systems to move through the area.  Next
Wednesday night through Thursday looks to have a clipper moving
through the region but it`s too far out in time to discuss
precipitation details with this.

In terms of temperatures over the next week, slightly above normal
temperatures are generally expected with highs commonly in the
mid-30s. Overnight lows will dip into the teens and twenties
every night. Temperatures will likely be slightly cooler across
the deep snow pack in far southern MN through west central
Wisconsin.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

All MN TAF sites are now free from precipitation while the WI TAF
sites will still receive additional -SN through this evening. MVFR
conditions will be prevalent across the region, with some IFR
visibilities possible in some heavier bands of -SN at the WI TAF
sites. The -SN will diminish overnight and all sites will see an
improvement to VFR mid-level ceilings. Clouds will then scatter
out tomorrow with only upper level CS or CC clouds expected. N
winds will slowly back to NW through tomorrow while speeds
diminish to around 10 knots by tomorrow.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings will linger to around the start of the
afternoon/evening push and could last a little longer than
advertised. VFR conditions are then expected by mid-evening and
will continue through tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SN. Wind SW-W 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR becoming MVFR. Chance -SN late. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Tue...MVFR/-RASN likely. E winds 5 kts shifting to NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for WIZ015-016-
     023>028.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM CST Saturday for MNZ070-077-
     078-084-085-092-093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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