Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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165
FXUS63 KMPX 241144
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Surface analysis early this morning shows weak high pressure over
the Dakotas extending into the Deep South with one frontal system
over the Ohio River Valley and another over southern Alberta
province into the Pacific northwest. Aloft, the deep upper low
responsible for yesterday`s occasional showers has shifted into
the mid-Mississippi River valley while a NE-SW oriented ridge axis
is placed from western Ontario province through the Four Corners
region. Some low clouds are still shifting southeast through the
area in a last gasp of influence from the upper low. Otherwise,
the deep ridge of high pressure will slowly move east over the
region, allowing for a drier and warmer airmass to grab a hold of
the region`s weather for today into tonight. The ridge axis will
shift atop the area overnight then just off to the east by
daybreak Thursday morning. The western frontal system will have a
stacked low remain to the north of the international border but
increased moisture in advance of its warm front, expected to push
into the eastern Dakotas by Thursday morning, will allow for an
increase in cloud cover but be delayed enough to keep
precipitation out of the forecast through tonight. Highs today
will climb to 60-65 degrees across the WFO MPX coverage area. Lows
tonight will range from the lower 40s north and east to the upper
40s south, west and in the Twin Cities metro.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The overall concerns in the long term remain the frontal passage
Thursday night into Friday. Then the overall evolution of the
upper trough over the northern CONUS into the holiday weekend.

Initially we should see clouds increasing out ahead of the next
short wave and waa pattern Thursday. This should spread a small
chance of mainly elevated showers into the west and central
portions of the cwa during the afternoon. The front and trough
advance east over the region into the day Friday with a continue
threat of light showers. We do see moisture increase to around 1
inch precipitable water into Friday afternoon. This may be enough
to generate a few heavier showers with some thunder. The GFS is
faster with the front...moving into wester WI by 18z Fri with the
ECMWF about 6 hrs slower...holding off until later afternoon. The
EC builds better instability as well. Dewpoints should rise to
the mid 50s and temperatures will warm ahead of the front with mid
to upper 70s.

This system exits to the east Friday night but the deterministic
differ greatly in development and evolution of the northern CONUS
trough. The GFS brings in moisture ahead of the trough into
Saturday afternoon...with the ECMWF holding off until later
Saturday night/Sunday. We will hold onto the slight chance PoP for
mainly the west Saturday afternoon. This may be removed if trends
more toward the ECMWF in future model runs.

The better shot of ran will develop Sunday into Monday as the
upper trough drops south over the region. This will eventually
cool temperatures back below normal by Memorial day. The thunder
threat looks best for the area Sunday afternoon with the troughs
arrival. We may see some lingering chances for isolated thunder
to the east on Memorial Day depending on timing. Overall...little
threat of severe weather. Trending more like a typical Memorial
Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Mainly VFR at all terminals with a chance of some lingering MVFR
ceilings over the initial few hours from MSP-eastward. If/when
MVFR ceilings do occur, they look to fall into the 2-3 kft range,
nothing lower. Ceilings will gradually scatter out this afternoon
with only FEW-SCT clouds tonight through tomorrow morning. Winds
will be generally from the NE today in the 5-10kt range then go
near calm tonight before picking up from the southeast tomorrow as
high pressure moves across. No precipitation and no visibility
restrictions.

KMSP...There is a small areas of 1 kft clouds just to the SW of
the MSP terminal with a couple sites reporting lower MVFR
ceilings. However, with a NE wind and daytime mixing to commence,
am not expecting these clouds to back up into MSP. So will
maintain just SCT clouds. There is a swath of mid-level clouds to
the NE over western WI that does look to move so have indicated
that with BKN050 by midday. Clouds to scatter out afterwards this
evening through through tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sat...Mainly VFR. Slgt chc P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.
Sun...Mainly VFR. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JPC



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